ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[deltadog03]

Also, remember this.....This is from past exp. that I have dealt with. This is IN the EURO's Wheelhouse. I am talking about time frame. (4-7 days) I have seen the EURO deal with synoptics much better than the GFS in this time frame. Does it mean the Euro is right and GFS is wrong, heck no, but my money would be towards that solution a little more.

[Stratosphere747]

[KWT]

UKMO is still on its own I see on the right side of the guidence, most of the rest of the guidence takes Ike WNW then back slight south of west before lifting possibly back towards the WNW in the Bahamas.

[Sanibel]

I've just scrolled through the Unisys Tropical Archives and there's no flat-tracker west above 20N that dips towards Cuba in tropical history. It is unprecedented.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Also, remember this.....This is from past exp. that I have dealt with. This is IN the EURO's Wheelhouse. I am talking about time frame. (4-7 days) I have seen the EURO deal with synoptics much better than the GFS in this time frame. Does it mean the Euro is right and GFS is wrong, heck no, but my money would be towards that solution a little more.

Do you see JB's Hurricane Gloria, Part Deux?

[Frank2]

It seems the critical element is Hanna's unexpected slow motion over the past 5 days which will leave a substantial trough - considering that Ike is only a few days behind, perhaps the models are beginning to pick up on that...

[dwg71]

JB is due for a hit. Maybe he will get this one right

My initial prediction, (which I will not waiver from) is Cat 2 Approaching the Florida coast only to recurve and not make landfall on CONUS. Often wrong but never in doubt. A path similar to the current HWRF.

Just a reminder, I had Gustav as a cat 3 hitting PCB, FL -so Im off by about 3 states. No one in the Northern hemisphere should pay attention to my forecasts....

[KWT]

dwg71, I'm willing to bet the HWRF would lead to a Florida hit,the only model that recurves is the GFS at the moment. The UKMO is pretty far north as well so that may recurve away before landfall but its heading nearly west at the end of its run as well.

Frank, i thik it won't stop a possible US landfall but what it will do is probably totally remove the threat for the Caribbean IMO unless the ridge builds in at some stupif speed, right now it hasn't even started forming so i'm more inclined to go with a northerly option but sadly that doesn't mean a recurve is any more likely IMO.

[dwg71]

dwg71, I'm willing to bet the HWRF would lead to a Florida hit,the only model that recurves is the GFS at the moment. The UKMO is pretty far north as well so that may recurve away before landfall but its heading nearly west at the end of its run as well.

Frank, i thik it won't stop a possible US landfall but what it will do is probably totally remove the threat for the Caribbean IMO unless the ridge builds in at some stupif speed, right now it hasn't even started forming so i'm more inclined to go with a northerly option but sadly that doesn't mean a recurve is any more likely IMO.

GFS, AVNO, HWRF, BAMM all hint of a recurve, again its just my opinion.

[KWT]

I wouldn't cal lthat a recurve, its a bend to the WNW true but far from recurve...I think a recurve is what Hanna is going to do...but I do agree the system probably will bend back WNW...

The only one that does show recurve is GFS, HWRF could do but not at that point.

[Frank2]

Yes, that's why yesterday I found those railroad track-like model runs hard to believe - that just didn't seem right...

Again, it seems that Hanna is the critical issue here, since it will leave a substantial trough considering it's been meandering since Saturday, similar in some ways to Bertha (though at another latitiude)...

[KWT]

Most models show the ruidge will build in very rapidly and shut the door on any weakness, though I do note the GFS 06z doesn't really do that much, though the GFS is probably underestimating the high on its 06z run. I do thinkthe WNW/NW bend is more probable then the earlier idea of a WSW into the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Yes, that's why yesterday I found those railroad track-like model runs hard to believe - that just didn't seem right...

Again, it seems that Hanna is the critical issue here, since it will leave a substantial trough considering it's been meandering since Saturday, similar in some ways to Bertha (though at another latitiude)...

Frank2 I love your optimism but NHC's cone is gradually bending into Southern Florida but if you extrapolate out (which is not prudent) it still passes south of Florida....for this advisory but barely now.

and calling for substantial WSW movement because of strong ridging...

all eyes shifting to Ike now here in South Florida, now that Hanna looks like it will pass well to the east.

[Lifesgud2]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think Florida or the GOM have to worry about Ike, but keep an eye on it.Storms follow the weakness and Hanna is creating a weakness which should allow Ike to follow Hanna to the Carolina's.I haven't seen a strong high yet this summer and know the models are backing off on a strong high. I 'm not saying Florida or GOM is in the clear but I'm willing to bet the NHC will not have a due west track but a WNW track towards the Carolina's by tomorrow.[/quote]

Are you for real? What kind of statement is this? Come on dude. Dont say things that are not even remotely possible,

[Sanibel]

Closest analogue of current track. 1935 Keys Labor Day storm:

[dwg71]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think Florida or the GOM have to worry about Ike, but keep an eye on it.Storms follow the weakness and Hanna is creating a weakness which should allow Ike to follow Hanna to the Carolina's.I haven't seen a strong high yet this summer and know the models are backing off on a strong high. I 'm not saying Florida or GOM is in the clear but I'm willing to bet the NHC will not have a due west track but a WNW track towards the Carolina's by tomorrow.

Are you for real? What kind of statement is this? Come on dude. Dont say things that are not even remotely possible,[/quote]

It is remotely possible, that type of track could be possible - depending on the weakness in the ridge, or its failure to build back west quickly enough. Lets wait and see.

[ROCK]

Yes, that's why yesterday I found those railroad track-like model runs hard to believe - that just didn't seem right...

Again, it seems that Hanna is the critical issue here, since it will leave a substantial trough considering it's been meandering since Saturday, similar in some ways to Bertha (though at another latitiude)...

Frank2 I love your optimism but NHC's cone is gradually bending into Southern Florida but if you extrapolate out (which is not prudent) it still passes south of Florida....for this advisory but barely now.

and calling for substantial WSW movement because of strong ridging...

all eyes shifting to Ike now here in South Florida, now that Hanna looks like it will pass well to the east.

I highly doubt that Ike will hit FL......




always wanted to say that without any factual data to back up my claim.....

[jasons2k]

Ed, you might be right after all. But I think it's too early to say we don't have any threats. Who knows, we might wake-up next week to a major blob near Belize or some place headed this way - it's happened many-o-season.

That said, I think we can agree we probably won't be threatened by Ike. I think it may be a 1935 or Donna-like track as some have already pointed out. The setup favors something like that - it would have to go really far south to bypass that trough early next week, which isn't likely.

[ROCK]

The only reason the NHC repositioned there track (according to 11 disco) was that Ike was tracking a little further north of the previous forecast points. Not really a big deal nor did it change the track from last advisory all that much.... NHC is obviously not taken into account of the last two EURO runs either. If the trend continues to be EC tonight and tomorrow I might concede...

[gatorcane]

Yes, that's why yesterday I found those railroad track-like model runs hard to believe - that just didn't seem right...

Again, it seems that Hanna is the critical issue here, since it will leave a substantial trough considering it's been meandering since Saturday, similar in some ways to Bertha (though at another latitiude)...

Frank2 I love your optimism but NHC's cone is gradually bending into Southern Florida but if you extrapolate out (which is not prudent) it still passes south of Florida....for this advisory but barely now.

and calling for substantial WSW movement because of strong ridging...

all eyes shifting to Ike now here in South Florida, now that Hanna looks like it will pass well to the east.

I highly doubt that Ike will hit FL......




always wanted to say that without any factual data to back up my claim.....

personally I'm leaning towards a deflection away from Southern Florida near the last minute...

I have no desire to put up shutters on my two story house this weekend...at all. I'd rather watch the Florida Gators beat up on the Miami Hurricanes this weekend instead....