ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Hockey007]

Hello convection! http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES121520082478q2ru4.jpg There are 2 blobs appearing near the center. As soon as the shear relaxed the convection is back and alive, probably with the help with the huge amount of upper level divergence and lower level convergence.

[CourierPR]

Local 10 Met. just said Hanna is completing a loop.

[KWT]

Well with the deelopment of those two blobs of convection I think we are starting to see the conditions aloft change, in that the shear does seem to be easing off somewhat.

CourierPR, yeah its taken longer then I thought it would but its getting there.

[CW0262]

Looks like Ike is going mate with Hanna soon

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wow, she's cooking now. Convective bands increasing on the South and East quads, as well as convection over the center. Also looks to be convection and moisture finally making it's way 'round the N side. If this continues, we'll have a real hurricane by tonight. I think I like "ugly Hanna" better

[stormchazer]

Great! (Sarcasm intended) Well now we must wait for the much anticapated move NW or North.

[HURAKAN]

Best track 12z: 50 knots

AL, 08, 2008090312, , BEST, 0, 203N, 718W, 50, 996,

[carversteve]

I just went over to wunderground.....why does the GFDL have Hanna on there model run at a cat 4 and then a cat 3 at landfall?...Anyone with comments,please chime in!!.The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products...

[wxman57]

Looking at Hanna on satellite this morning, if someone told me to find the tropical storm in the picture I couldn't. The center looks so poorly-organized that it probably doesn't even qualify for being a TD, much less a TS. Would the NHC really upgrade something as poorly-organized as this to a TS?

That said, I do see that upper-level winds do appear to be getting a bit more favorable for Hanna to regenerate. The LLC, if there is one, is probably east of the NHC estimates now. Latest 12Z guidance is farther east with the track, taking it into NC on Saturday. That's probably realistic given the slowness in the ridge building to the northeast (the one that will block Ike from heading north). So, it could become a hurricane eventually and make landfall in NC. There's also a growing possibility it may skirt the coast just east of Hatteras.

[KWT]

Well recon from what I've heard wxman57 only found a broad LLC rather then the tight one of recent days and no they wouldn't upgrade this if it was an invest right now I agree.

I also agree that conditions are stadily improving and with such impressive convergence Hanna should no problem producing deep convection and the heat content is pretty decent along its track as well so it all depends on what the shear does.

[tpr1967]

This morning on visibles i see a circulation elongated sw to ne, with a new center trying to form farther north.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I see two outflow channels in place for Hanna. She's about to get a "kick in the butt" from the E ala the ridge building. Interestingly, Hanna's outflow may not have any effect on Ike (at least for while ) due to the ULL moving out so slow. Hanna is large enough that if the upper air conditions continue to improve she may end up shearing Ike and changing the game a good bit. Today will be interesting to watch. I agree the OBX is getting more likely, but I don't think we will really know until a N motion begins in earnest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[tallywx]

In my humble non-professional opinion, the fact that there is a complete lack of a tight center this morning (see both recon. and vis loops) with all that convection blowing up to the N and NE of the aircraft fix just SCREAMS center relocation under the convection followed by a restrengthening trend and movement.

as for the swing and the miss east of hatteras, wxman57, how did things change so radically from just yesterday when if anything you were suggesting the models might be too far to the right because a stalled Hanna would allow the ridge to build in stronger. well Hanna stalled longer than expected, and yet...

[Sanibel]

Steering is a tough nut for me. I assume Hanna is exiting up the weakness in the trough border with the High and that this route is in between the west edge of the approaching High over Ike and the ULL. So if I have it right the approaching ridge will ease west as it carries Ike along under it while Hanna moves north and out of the way. Hanna sat in a busy shear intersection for too long and broke back into something similar to a wave or monsoon trough, only a little better organized. With the more east track the building High wasn't there as much as we thought. That answers some of the questions from yesterday.

[KWT]

tallywx, I think the key is its been drifting eastwards and so whilst the synoptic set-up hasn't changed a great deal from what was expected the NW turn comes further east and that shunts the landfall site further to the east, that plus we need to watch what Gustav does, if it lifts out quickly then I suspect Hanna will get a little further east yet further.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Also that little soon-to-be- cutoff upper low to her NW is only helping divergence. If ther is enough heat in the water, we could see a bit more strenghtening than forecast in the next 12 hours. Hmmm

[DanKellFla]

For all locations along the east coast:
No matter what, this storm is going to affect your weekend. No days off from work or school. Just a ruined rainy Saturday and Sunday. Everything will be fine just in time for your drive to work on Monday.

[Blown Away]

Looking at Hanna on satellite this morning, if someone told me to find the tropical storm in the picture I couldn't. The center looks so poorly-organized that it probably doesn't even qualify for being a TD, much less a TS. Would the NHC really upgrade something as poorly-organized as this to a TS?

That said, I do see that upper-level winds do appear to be getting a bit more favorable for Hanna to regenerate. The LLC, if there is one, is probably east of the NHC estimates now. Latest 12Z guidance is farther east with the track, taking it into NC on Saturday. That's probably realistic given the slowness in the ridge building to the northeast (the one that will block Ike from heading north). So, it could become a hurricane eventually and make landfall in NC. There's also a growing possibility it may skirt the coast just east of Hatteras.

Ike is going to go N at some point? Do you mean block Ike from going N before FL?

[chris_fit]

I see nothing that even remotely resembles an LLC on the Vis. Sat. loop using the 8am location, LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST.

[tpr1967]

New center looks to be forming just sse of turks and caicos islands.your thoughts.