ATL: IKE Discussion

[Cookiely]

Thanks superfly. I can see where the eyewall isn't completely closed in your image.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I think I'd call that an inner core there Hurakan, I do not no why the NHC aren't raising the strength this is clearly a hurricane now, I'd go 65kts.

[HURAKAN]

Good morning Ike!

[KWT]

According to microwave imagery the center seems to be right in the middle of the CDO, it looks pretty well balanced IMO looking at that sat.imagery.

Still looks like a Cuba landfall is the best bet right now, amazingly enough!

[deltadog03]

Well, Hanna is still upfront in the brain, but man IKE looks pretty darn good. I am a little worried that Hanna might create some kind of weakness that allows IKE to be on the northern side of the guidance cone....This has trouble written all over him.

[BOPPA]

Well, Hanna is still upfront in the brain, but man IKE looks pretty darn good. I am a little worried that Hanna might create some kind of weakness that allows IKE to be on the northern side of the guidance cone....This has trouble written all over him.

Deltagod - just got up and read your post - trouble written all over him? Looking at a
couple of pix - it that Ike I see coming to visit SW Fl ?????

Hope my sleepy eyes are looking at it totally WRONG.............

[Blown Away]

Besides Andrew, has there ever been a hurricane that passed north of the 20n/60W Hebert Box and hit Florida and/or missed Florida and continued on a path WSW into the Caribbean/GOM?

[Sabanic]

About the time Ike could be reaching the Gulf will be close to the anniversaries of Frederic
(09/12/1979), and Ivan (09/16/2004)

[KWT]

Blown_away, not that I can see, Donna did bend back to due west for a while, some hurricanes have hit Cuba from that far north but I don't thnik there are many, if any that have hit Cuba from that angle before.

deltadog03, we could see two hits on the SE states in the sapce of a few days...

I think watch the evolution of Hann's track and note its going further east with time, the high is slowly but surely weakening in terms of predicted strength and that is not good news for the SE unless it opens up totally like the 06z GFS does.

[boca]

What's the chances that Ike curves out like the 06 GFS is saying.I don't see such a strong high pressure out in the Western Atlantic.Hanna is causing a weakness and I don't see how Ike can plow west through Hanna's trough.Wouldn't Hanna cause Ike to turn NW and not hit the Caribbean or Florida possible being an issue for the Carolina's.Also that big ULL off New England isn't moving out so quickly,so the High can't build in the Western Atlantic so quicly either.I just can't see Ike continueing west.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well all depends on what sort of track and speed Hanna takes. The GFS has been known to sometimes not build in ridges quickly enough but then again the GFS is probably a more likely set-up then the GFDL IMO.

The simple answer is its too early to know but I'll be surprised if Hann's weakness doesn't exact some sort of WNW motion once this gets close to the Bahamas, though the GFDL is convinced it'll be in the Caribbean sea by that point, who knows if thats even pluaseable but I suppose you can never totally rule out anything?!

Hurakan, if thats niot a hurricane then I don't know what is to be honest!!!

[BensonTCwatcher]

I have only been keeping a loose eye on Ike, but the setup seem like long odds this makes it to FL or to the GOM. The ULL is abit slower on on lifting out and Ike is not slowing down. I am kind of looking for some shear to do some work on Ike before approaching the Bahamas. Ike does not get a free ride to landfall I hope.

[boca]

I have only been keeping a loose eye on Ike, but the setup seem like long odds this makes it to FL or to the GOM. The ULL is abit slower on on lifting out and Ike is not slowing down. I am kind of looking for some shear to do some work on Ike before approaching the Bahamas. Ike does not get a free ride to landfall I hope.

Right now the models have Ike going west but because Hanna is taking her sweet time moving and the ULL east of New England isn't moving off to the NE yet.I can't see Ike plowing west through Hanna's trough.Ike will experence shear and I think Ike will hit north of Florida just because Ike hasn't slowed down and synoptics are slow as well.My 2 cents.

[Blown Away]

If Ike's track verifies it will be historical.

[KWT]

I'm not sure Boca to be honest, whilst the ULL may be a bit slow on moving out theres probably still enough time for it to get out of there and not play too much of a role. What I think it does mean however is the idea of the WSW turn lasting move then a little while before turning up towards the WNW.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, kind of like baseball. Watching for a change-up (Hanna) and probably get hit in the head with a fastball (Ike)

[HURAKAN]

Not to be specific in baseball terms, but in my opinion Hanna is a knucklecurve!!!

[deltadog03]

IMO the WSW bend at the end will not happen...Its becoming a little bit better that IKE is going to gain some lat. as he approaches the bahamas. Right now I would take a pat down NHC's cone, but on the north side.