ATL: IKE Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Ouch....Water Vapor indicates a pretty nasty bit of Dry air ahead of the storm....seems thankfully Hanna's huge outflow will moisten the environment and help it out though.


Not a huge issue...the storm is moving so fast it won't matter but I wonder if this may keep it from getting that tight inner core for the next 12 hours...

[cheezyWXguy]

Ouch....Water Vapor indicates a pretty nasty bit of Dry air ahead of the storm....seems thankfully Hanna's huge outflow will moisten the environment and help it out though.


Not a huge issue...the storm is moving so fast it won't matter but I wonder if this may keep it from getting that tight inner core for the next 12 hours...

It actually appears to me to have a pretty nice inner core...but once that weakness fills in all the way, i think its guaranteed hurricane status.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on a closed, and clear eye, with a developing outflow channel to the north, and with a developing outflow channel appears to be developing to the southwest quad. I would say this is now 75 knots....I also believe that this will become a cat2 if the trend keeps up within the next 12 hours. It is not impossible if colder convection develops and the eye becomes more defined to get a major out of this.


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[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on a microwave past 4 hours ago, this has a very soild core. In it is likely a lot better now. Of course it is one of our older ones to.

[CrazyC83]

I agree it is now a hurricane. I'd say 65-70 kt now.

[Cyclenall]

I'm sorry, but there is no way this is not a hurricane. Not even up to 60 knots? Ridiculous. It may be as high as 70 knots by now. I'm a bit disappointed.

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE OUTFLOW
IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...IKE LACKS AN INNER CORE
AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW
ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KNOTS BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS..AND THIS NUMBER IS USED FOR THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

The argument of this being 55 knots is far too weak. A little more symmetric? More like perfect symmetry. It's not quite perfect anymore but that's because it's continuing to organize. The deep convection will fade slightly as it fully rotates. Even if there is no inner core, I don't recall there being much of one in Hanna when she first became a hurricane (no eyewall present?). I'm not 100% sure on that though so don't take it as fact.

EDIT: Now a small eye is starting to appear (not a cloud free center ).

[Wx_Warrior]

IHMO, Ike will shoot up the EC behind, his girlfriend, Hanna Montana (couldn't resist) or become an EGOM setup type deal.

[masaji79]

Based on the satellite pictures Ike looks like a hurricane already!
If the models verify this could be one nasty storm. Heck the name Ike could get retired the first time out.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 SEP 2008 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 19:54:54 N Lon : 47:57:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.3 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -59.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Eye now open, and Raw T5.6 suggests rapid intensification possible.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the satellite pictures Ike looks like a hurricane already!
If the models verify this could be one nasty storm. Heck the name Ike could get retired the first time out.

The last name to get retired on first use as replacement was Michelle.

[Category 5]

This is a Hurricane.

[Meso]

Wow, interesting storm.. I know the word annular gets thrown around a lot at times when it seems rediculous, but this storm really looks like it could become an annular hurricane. Round, symmetric convection, large eye and bands which appear to be peeling off. Will be interesting to watch it's future, that's for sure

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Wow, interesting storm.. I know the word annular gets thrown around a lot at times when it seems rediculous, but this storm really looks like it could become an annular hurricane. Round, symmetric convection, large eye and bands which appear to be peeling off. Will be interesting to watch it's future, that's for sure

Looks to me like a pretty small eye!

[Meso]

You're right, that will teach me to look at one night time vis image. That is a small eye. Which throws a spanner in the works.Still extremely circular. Will have to wait and see I guess

[PTrackerLA]

Ugh, there's areas around here still getting nailed by feederbands from Gustav, we're about to get a nasty one again. Multiple tornadoes reported around here today as well. I might actually keep some boards up on the windows until this weekend to see how this unfolds. I have to admit, Ike is looking impressive tonight as it barrels westward. Quite the season we're having here but Ike, stay out of the gulf, we are done for the year!

[Hockey007]

It doesn't look so impressive on 4:30z. Unless the eye is really that big...

[Cookiely]

I would sure like to know what the nhc mean about the core. This certainly looks like a healthy compact minimal hurricane.

[KWT]

It still looks like a hurricane even if the eye is a touch poorly defined on that sat.imagery.

[Nimbus]

It will be interesting to see what the models do with the weakness left behind by Hanna. Its beginning to look like these two storms are getting close enough to effect each other.

Probably take a much stronger and slower moving Hanna to recurve Ike north of the Carolinas though.

[superfly]

I would sure like to know what the nhc mean about the core. This certainly looks like a healthy compact minimal hurricane.

It's a lopsided storm, with eyewall very open to the southwest and slightly to the north.