ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[ROCK]

I'll be asleep then, but if 0Z Euro is close to 12Z Euro, and has model support from anywhere but the UK Met, I'll start doubting the Gulf of Mexico scenario.

EURO hugger!! .......read the NHC disco...VERY confident on a 5 day track......The EURO has been known to make big swings and destroy nearly every major city along the way. I am not doubting it....In fact I look forward to your cone tomorrow..... Mine will be ready.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll be asleep then, but if 0Z Euro is close to 12Z Euro, and has model support from anywhere but the UK Met, I'll start doubting the Gulf of Mexico scenario.

EURO hugger!! .......read the NHC disco...VERY confident on a 5 day track......The EURO has been known to make big swings and destroy nearly every major city along the way. I am not doubting it....In fact I look forward to your cone tomorrow..... Mine will be ready.....

Euro track through 5 days is close to NHC track...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll be asleep then, but if 0Z Euro is close to 12Z Euro, and has model support from anywhere but the UK Met, I'll start doubting the Gulf of Mexico scenario.

EURO hugger!! .......read the NHC disco...VERY confident on a 5 day track......The EURO has been known to make big swings and destroy nearly every major city along the way. I am not doubting it....In fact I look forward to your cone tomorrow..... Mine will be ready.....

Euro track through 5 days is close to NHC track...

Or is there a publically available 10 day NHC track I missed?




Anyways, I think I added caveat another model, not the UK Met, had to follow along. Since Euro curve starts beyond 5 days of HWRF and GFDL, that means Canadian or GFS.

[HouTXmetro]

Chances of this getting into Gulf?

[Meso]

00z GFDL and HWRF



Run


The GFDL has the system moving WSW then almost SW, then in the Caribbean turning NW and skirting along Cuba.


HWRF (Don't look now Florida)



Run


The HWRF has an intense storm moving West through-out most of the run with a slight WNW movement near the end

[southerngale]

0Z Euro similar to last run.

[T'Bonz]

124 knots? And right outside our door? Yipes!

Man, I sure this scenario doesn't happen.

Ike is going to be mean.

00z GFDL and HWRF

HWRF (Don't look now Florida)



Run


The HWRF has an intense storm moving West through-out most of the run with a slight WNW movement near the end

[KWT]

0Z ECM is similar but slightly further west thats a key thing because it actually hits south Florida now before curving NNE up the east coast.

GFDL still doing that WSW dive into Hispaniola, I'm having a really tough time accepting that idea that it takes that sharp of a dive.

Edit---mind you the ECM does nearly do that too so who knows...

[fci]

0Z ECM is similar but slightly further west thats a key thing because it actually hits south Florida now before curving NNE up the east coast.

GFDL still doing that WSW dive into Hispaniola, I'm having a really tough time accepting that idea that it takes that sharp of a dive.

Imagine what the poor people of Hispaniola think of the prospects of yet another visitor.
I think they must be losing count of the number of storms that have, and are expected to; strike them.

[KWT]

Yeah I know its mental every styorm that forms seems to wa nt to visit that island first its taking a heck of a beating this year.

I think the key is if this does become a strong hurricane then a GFDL is more possible as the high wil lprobably stronger at higher levels, though I don't it will bend down to that extent I wouldn't be surprised if this does hit Cuba, what it does from there is totally uncertain.

In some ways the only system came close to what the ECM shows is probably Donna.

[O Town]

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS starts a Northwest turn off Florida. Good scare, but goes fishing...



Hmmm. If it does get into the Gulf, Canadian now shows a turn towards Florida

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

DO NOT like that Canadian run at all! Thankfully it is just the Canadian!

[KWT]

GFS isn't all that far away from the ECM run last night however itsa little to oearly to make that call, it does look increasingly like a close situation and exactly where it goes is so uncertain still...

GFDL very much the southern outlier.

[DelrayMorris]

0Z ECM is similar but slightly further west thats a key thing because it actually hits south Florida now before curving NNE up the east coast.

GFDL still doing that WSW dive into Hispaniola, I'm having a really tough time accepting that idea that it takes that sharp of a dive.

Imagine what the poor people of Hispaniola think of the prospects of yet another visitor.
I think they must be losing count of the number of storms that have, and are expected to; strike them.

That is horrifying to me. If Ike goes to Haiti, that will be their 4th storm in about 6 weeks. I don't want Ike here, either, though, and the Gulf Coast can't take it, so I hope it defies all models and goes out to sea. Not that I have confidence it will, but one can hope.

[KWT]

Should be noted the only model that gets Ike to Haiti is the GFDL, its nearly a total outlier in how WSW it takes Ike...

[HURRICANELONNY]

The only thing that worries me about Ike. Is Hanna. If the storm gets going and heads NW. It tends to leave a weakness in the High. But that is a big if. Because Hanna looks like she is on her way out. The shear is taking a toll on her. I think the track on Ike is dependent on the track of Hanna. If she survives.

[Portastorm]

I think I have recovered from my post-Gustav Gulf hysteria. Accordingly, and based on what the GFS and Euro show in terms of the Atlantic ridge ... I am not so warm today on the idea of Ike making it past 90 degrees west. It would be really extraordinary ridging take Ike all the way into the WGOM. I just don't see it.

[boca]

What's the chances that Ike curves out like the 06 GFS is saying.I don't see such a strong high pressure out in the Western Atlantic.Hanna is causing a weakness and I don't see how Ike can plow west through Hanna's trough.Wouldn't Hanna cause Ike to turn NW and not hit the Caribbean or Florida possible being an issue for the Carolina's.That ULL is parked east of NEW England slowing down the high building in.I don't see this making it to 80w.

[KWT]

I really wouldn't like to say Boca, a touch too early to know but there may well be enough of a weakness there to allow this system to bend up to the WNW/NW however the GFS can sometimes undercook devloping ridges, but both the GFS and ECM models are suggesting that this will recurve out to the NNE at some point it seems but the question is how far west doe sit get.

Also I'll be shocked if the NHC continue to show a south of west motion given its only the GFDL that does anything like that to that extreme now.