ATL: IKE Discussion

[CajunMama]

Just a note to remember not everyone has a superduper computer or the highest speed interent access so please limit the large image loops please and if you quote the person who has one delete the tags please. Thank you!

[AJC3]

Hey gang, I have a favor to ask...

These pages with multiple huge loops are absolutely smoking my PC (and older P-III). Any way you can either post links instead or downsize them would be really helpful.

TIA.

[bahamaswx]

One of the smallest systems we've seen in a while.

[cycloneye]

[Weatherfreak000]

I think right now the question probably isn't...will the ridge materialize....


It's will the ridge be strong enough to send Ike into Cuba...or through the Florida Straits/SFL.


(Not ruling out the possibility of course...but the most accurate models out there all forecast this)

[ROCK]

Gotta be kidding...THAT...is 55 Knots?


The structure clearly outlines a VERY, very well organized system...VERY much more organized then at the 5PM Advisory...but no wind increase? Insanity.


I'll eat my shoe if that storm isn't at least 60kts. I'll even pour some A1 on it when I do.


Edit: This storm is trending WAY more North then the NHC is seeing...I can't see this storm doing what the GFDL/GFS are saying. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that's not gonna happen.

no changes in guidance at 11pm.....looks like the NHC is highly confident. Has your thoughts changed?

[tolakram]

[Category 5]

Based on satellite I think this is a Hurricane, but whatever, T numbers support 55kts so I won't argue.

[SouthFLTropics]

Geez, Ike looks like a bowling ball rolling down the alley. It's scary that right now it looks like it may be rolling a strike instead of a gutter ball.

SFT

[lbvbl]

so is this thing expected to keep going west or is it expected to turn NW at some point and hit FL?

[ROCK]

no inner core according to the NHC....does have "an eye like feature" to it....I am guessing this mean partial eye-wall or no eye wall....?

[fasterdisaster]

Gotta be kidding...THAT...is 55 Knots?


The structure clearly outlines a VERY, very well organized system...VERY much more organized then at the 5PM Advisory...but no wind increase? Insanity.


I'll eat my shoe if that storm isn't at least 60kts. I'll even pour some A1 on it when I do.


Edit: This storm is trending WAY more North then the NHC is seeing...I can't see this storm doing what the GFDL/GFS are saying. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that's not gonna happen.

no changes in guidance at 11pm.....looks like the NHC is highly confident. Has your thoughts changed?

Mine haven't. I definitely expect post-season to say this has been a hurricane for at least 3 hours now.

[ROCK]

so is this thing expected to keep going west or is it expected to turn NW at some point and hit FL?

scroll up and FL is in the 5 day cone...good question... after this weekend,where does it go from there. One thing is for certain the NHC is highly confident 5 days out on the west to wsw movement....

[lbvbl]

if this were to go slightly above the track forecasted but stay in the cone, this could be disastrous for FL

[Weatherfreak000]

Gotta be kidding...THAT...is 55 Knots?


The structure clearly outlines a VERY, very well organized system...VERY much more organized then at the 5PM Advisory...but no wind increase? Insanity.


I'll eat my shoe if that storm isn't at least 60kts. I'll even pour some A1 on it when I do.


Edit: This storm is trending WAY more North then the NHC is seeing...I can't see this storm doing what the GFDL/GFS are saying. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that's not gonna happen.

no changes in guidance at 11pm.....looks like the NHC is highly confident. Has your thoughts changed?

Edit: As far as intensity....60kts. A lack of a well defined inner core indeed is why they haven't upgraded it. But I strongly believe we are looking at a storm on the cusp of becoming one.

Not at all...I think this system is steadily going to increase in latitude...and go through the Florida Straits...and that appears to currently be what the HWRF sees too.

From there....who knows...anyone on the map is game this far out. I only have one request...NOT Louisiana. But unfortunately the N. Gulf Coast is very privy to storms this time of year...

[ConvergenceZone]

this part of the latest NHC discussion makes me believe it's bound for the Gulf of Mexico

"Global models expand and
build the ridge westward...and this pattern should force Ike on a
general westward track. The ridge becomes so strong by the end of the forecast period that models turn Ike on a slight west-southwest track. "

[MGC]

Yea Rock I was just going to post concerning the 11pm discussion on Ike. No inner core? The NHC must be looking at a different TC IMO. If you ask me, Ike is nearly a hurricane based on his satellite presentation. Looks to be trying to form an eye! Ike has the "look" to me and might be a hurricane real soon.....MGC

[ROCK]

Gotta be kidding...THAT...is 55 Knots?


The structure clearly outlines a VERY, very well organized system...VERY much more organized then at the 5PM Advisory...but no wind increase? Insanity.


I'll eat my shoe if that storm isn't at least 60kts. I'll even pour some A1 on it when I do.


Edit: This storm is trending WAY more North then the NHC is seeing...I can't see this storm doing what the GFDL/GFS are saying. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that's not gonna happen.

no changes in guidance at 11pm.....looks like the NHC is highly confident. Has your thoughts changed?

Edit: As far as intensity....60kts. A lack of a well defined inner core indeed is why they haven't upgraded it. But I strongly believe we are looking at a storm on the cusp of becoming one.

Not at all...I think this system is steadily going to increase in latitude...and go through the Florida Straits...and that appears to currently be what the HWRF sees too.

From there....who knows...anyone on the map is game this far out. I only have one request...NOT Louisiana. But unfortunately the N. Gulf Coast is very privy to storms this time of year...

I am leaning with the NHC track and south end of the cone for now.......that last disco was very confident on a monster high and a bend sw in 5 days.....CMC is thinking Yucatan...I wonder what the models will see tomorrow....

[ROCK]

Yea Rock I was just going to post concerning the 11pm discussion on Ike. No inner core? The NHC must be looking at a different TC IMO. If you ask me, Ike is nearly a hurricane based on his satellite presentation. Looks to be trying to form an eye! Ike has the "look" to me and might be a hurricane real soon.....MGC

Well another microwave pass from the Navy site could give us an idea as far as core structure.....I am not sure that is a true eye or a eye like feature.....probably a moot point at this time. Ike looks on the verge of being a cat 1....

[HURAKAN]

Ikelicious.