ATL: IKE Discussion

[AL Chili Pepper]

Welp, my unofficial official long range gut projection says this one's a Florida storm. I'm saying Miami/Ft Lauderdale.

[KWT]

Indeed Hurakan and some models now backing off from that WSW and instead going for a WNW motion as it heads towards the Bahamas, that looks far more realisitic IMO but we shall have to wait and see.

Will be interesting to see what the NHC does next advisory, they may well adjust the track just a touch to the north of where it is now who knows!

[Sanibel]

Models starting to push more towards right bend into Florida.

Tomorrow night we should see them come more north.

If Hanna gets going this is an exotic year.

[Tireman4]

So no GOM storm Sanibel?

[Sanibel]

So no GOM storm Sanibel?

Dean and Felix taught me a hard lesson on expecting recurve.

Tomorrow night the models should have a better idea.

[KWT]

Agreed Sanibel I think its still a little early in the game to really have a good idea though Ike's motion in the next 24-36hrs should give us an idea of how probable the GFDL idea is.

Also should be noted convergence is slowly increasing on the western side of Ike and in response convection appears to be getting deeper again there, I can understand why the estimates are now upto 55kts.

[Cookiely]

Ike looks small compared to Hanna but with a V-8 engine in the core. Just my humble opinion but I think Ike is going to be a major at some point.

[Bolebuns]

I apologize if this has already been asked. I just can't keep up with all these storms!

Wouldn't the fact that Ike is following on the heels of Hanna, and later possibly Gustav, keep a lid on intensity, since the water will have churned and thus be cooler?

[Weatherfreak000]

Not at all....the GOM water is way too powerful....and as far as the water under Hanna....remember the Loop current runs through there as well...very hot, deep water that certainly can support a Major Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

The intensity is raised at days 4-5 from the 11 AM Advisory.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

[KWT]

Yep and the NHC go with the GFDL model as well pretty close buying that WSW motion...though most models actually suggest a slight north of west motion near Cuba now, but we shall see what happens!

Also yep cycloneye not surprising they've increased the systems strength given they've raised the winds to 55kts now. I think the odds of a major hurricane out of this are pretty high.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Interesting they are discarding the UKMO and that does make sense as its also too far east with Hanna.

However what happens from the point where the NHC forecast ends is very uncertain, a few models are starting to suggest this lifts up somewhat as a weakness starts to emerge, noteably the ECM.

[AdamFirst]

Local TV mets are telling us to "keep an eye on Ike".

I am, with these recent model runs.

[KWT]

Well the models that were in good agreement about 12hrs aren't in quite such solid agreement, the GFDL is actually one of the more southern models, the general models suggest a slightly more north track, then you've got the ECM which agrees to a point with the others till it develops a weakness whilst the UKMO lifts this way north...

I think for now we need to keep an eye on the system and what it does in the next 24hrs, its been a little to the north of the NHC forecasted plots over the last 12hrs, we shall have to see if this continues or not.

also looks like its still strengthening, some good deep convection finally in the western side.

[Patrick99]

So it looks like Ike is just going to blast west across the Atlantic into N-Central Cuba? I am still not sure I've seen a track like that in my lifetime, but I guess there's a first time for everything.

[HURAKAN]

Look at that outflow!

[KWT]

Patrick99, just too early to say, some models are showing weaknesses that will lift it out just before Cuba but its a little too early to say.

Hurakan...wow Ike looks like a hurricane now, great outflow but also increasingly decent convective coverage, can't be far off from being a hurricane now I'd guess, wrapped up very nicely!

[RL3AO]

[WmE]

Looks like it's trying to wrap. Not quite there yet.