ATL: IKE Discussion

[terrapintransit]

The NHC will probably wait until it becomes a hurricane to upgrade the intensity forecast.

The NHC did this for Gustuv. They were very accurate with his intensity forecast which is surprising given that intensity is very hard to predict.

[bob rulz]

The NHC will probably wait until it becomes a hurricane to upgrade the intensity forecast.

The NHC did this for Gustuv. They were very accurate with his intensity forecast which is surprising given that intensity is very hard to predict.

They forecasted a cat 5 and 4 through the Gulf and it never got above a mid-level 3. Given the conditions most everyone would've done the same, but it didn't end up as "very accurate".

[terrapintransit]

The NHC will probably wait until it becomes a hurricane to upgrade the intensity forecast.

The NHC did this for Gustuv. They were very accurate with his intensity forecast which is surprising given that intensity is very hard to predict.

They forecasted a cat 5 and 4 through the Gulf and it never got above a mid-level 3. Given the conditions most everyone would've done the same, but it didn't end up as "very accurate".

Your right Bob. I guess I could have at least left the "very" out of that sentence

[Weatherfreak000]

Starting to look HIGHLY impressive based upon the latest imagery...definitely going to be a Hurricane soon.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 12:15 PM EDT:

[El Nino]

The latest at 12:15 PM EDT:

He looks almost subtropical, no ?

[RL3AO]

He's trying.

[micktooth]

Odds this heads into the Gulf and becomes another thread to NO?

(I know it's way too early to tell for sure)

Don't even want to think about this. This can be a psychological and political nightmare. Too early to tell or speculate. I'm just glad that I moved away after Katrina.

[cycloneye]

He looks almost subtropical, no ?

Why subtropical? Its fully warm core.

[Dave C]

It's needs to mix out dry air around it by developing deep convection over the center. Until then the convection has been on the outside of the system which is common with sub tropical systems, that's where the similarity ends though.

[Aristotle]

If Hanna doesn't get moving she will shear the heck out of Ike. But I have a question! If Hanna moves north and Ike moves underneath, will Hanna's outflow help to ventilate the outflow of Ike.

[Weatherfreak000]

Hanna is projected to be very far away from Ike...I don't think they should have any interaction whatsoever. By the time Ike would be in a position to get sheared by Hanna it would be Sunday. Hanna should be inland by then.

[CrazyC83]

02/1745 UTC 19.3N 45.3W T3.5/3.5 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean

Supports 55-60 kt.

[Just Joshing You]

You'd probably get a very nice Fujiwhara effect, actually.

[KWT]

Deep convection is indeed lacking but its got a good shape to it, in fact if it does develop a decent CDO then this will probably have no trouble reaching hurricane strength.

Landfall Cuba looking more and more likely, then from there back into the Caribbean possibly or the gulf

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK at 18:00 UTC upgrades the winds to 55kts.


AL, 09, 2008090218, , BEST, 0, 190N, 456W, 55, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 90, 0, 0, 0,

[KWT]

Given the way Ike is wrapping around that eye like feature its mnot all that surprising that the winds are upto 55kts.

Looking at the microwave though would support the center being a little north of that best track postion however, maybe like Dvorak's estimate of 19.3N.

Either way not picking up a huge amount of latitude.

[HURAKAN]

It's running 30 nm north of where it was supposed to be at this time yesterday.

9/1 5 PM:
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT

[KWT]

not a huge difference but every little bit further north now probably means less chance of this hitting Hispaniola at least.

[HURAKAN]

If it gets over 20N and doesn't move south of westward, it clears Hispaniola. I hope that happens because they can't handle another tropical cyclone. At the same time it puts the Bahamas and Florida more under the gun.