ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[ROCK]

6Z GFS kind of looks like the Canadian on Ike in the Gulf, however, the 6Z GFS has Ike as a very weak system, which would be somewhat immune from feeling troughs in the Westerlies well to the North, and Ike probably wouldn't be a weak system in the Gulf. Things can change, but right now I think the Euro solution might be the right one.

the right one??? 240 hrs out??? I will take that bet...what was it, a 6 pk of shiner? I will hand deliver it if the 240 hr EURO come to fruition......

[Weatherfreak000]

6Z GFS kind of looks like the Canadian on Ike in the Gulf, however, the 6Z GFS has Ike as a very weak system, which would be somewhat immune from feeling troughs in the Westerlies well to the North, and Ike probably wouldn't be a weak system in the Gulf. Things can change, but right now I think the Euro solution might be the right one.

the right one??? 240 hrs out??? I will take that bet...what was it, a 6 pk of shiner? I will hand deliver it if the 240 hr EURO come to fruition......

Lol...careful ROCK...if memory serves me correctly you made a similar bet with me over Gustav's models....and im still patiently awaiting my reward

[Ivanhater]

Oh..hes calling you out Rock

[Ed Mahmoud]

Funny how the Galveston Hurricane started somewhere along the region where Ike is right now.

Not really since it passed over Antigua. Unless the Galveston hurricane had started at 20ºN and headed way down to 17ºN, 62ºW, then travelled the Caribbean, before crossing Cuba coming Northwest, then bending back to the West-Northwest.


Of course, I don't know for certain you are wrong, the Galveston hurricane could have been where Ike is now, and taken an unusual WSW course to the Lesser Antilles. You may be right. But you probably aren't.

Wiki path is a best guess, partly based on a ship report East of the Antilles of squally weather.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS kind of looks like the Canadian on Ike in the Gulf, however, the 6Z GFS has Ike as a very weak system, which would be somewhat immune from feeling troughs in the Westerlies well to the North, and Ike probably wouldn't be a weak system in the Gulf. Things can change, but right now I think the Euro solution might be the right one.

the right one??? 240 hrs out??? I will take that bet...what was it, a 6 pk of shiner? I will hand deliver it if the 240 hr EURO come to fruition......

Specify an appropriate 10 day error cone. Say Lake Charles to A'p'cola, Florida in 10 days, plus or minus a day.


Just like I should have been sweating Gustav hooking a hard left and coming to Texas?

TD Gustav may not even make it to Texas

[Aristotle]

Here is my fear and one everyone needs to be considering. If this DOES????? make it in the gulf and DOES???? make a turn north toward NOLA like some models suggest. How many people won't leave the 2nd time. And at that point this would be very close to a Katrina track.

Don't want to bring all the ghost up. But I think a Whole Mess of people would say they ain't leavin!


Just my 2cents!

[MisUndrstd]

It's not so much complacency that I worry about, but it is the fact that many people wouldn't be able to afford to evacuate twice in one month. I evacuated for Katrina and I know just how expensive it can be.

[ROCK]

6Z GFS kind of looks like the Canadian on Ike in the Gulf, however, the 6Z GFS has Ike as a very weak system, which would be somewhat immune from feeling troughs in the Westerlies well to the North, and Ike probably wouldn't be a weak system in the Gulf. Things can change, but right now I think the Euro solution might be the right one.

the right one??? 240 hrs out??? I will take that bet...what was it, a 6 pk of shiner? I will hand deliver it if the 240 hr EURO come to fruition......

Specify an appropriate 10 day error cone. Say Lake Charles to A'p'cola, Florida in 10 days, plus or minus a day.


Just like I should have been sweating Gustav hooking a hard left and coming to Texas?

TD Gustav may not even make it to Texas

Ed, you want to specify a 10 day cone for Ike?? Now that is like winning the lottery...


I will take Tampico to Tampa for my cone....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double Post. Not sure if Shiner bet allows for fairly narrow 10 day error cone.


Disclaimer: Unofficial prognosis by a rank amateur to follow, at times so far out into the future, it is little more than speculation, and is not endorsed by Storm2K.


Based on GFS 500 mb (not surface position of too weak a system), Canadian, excellent agreement on 5 day tracks- I think the Euro is close, a path through Florida Straits, extreme Northern Greater Antilles or South Florida, generally West, and a turn Northwestward, toward somewhere between Lake Charles, LA and A'p'cola, Florida. Mid point- MSY to MOB. If Ike avoids too much of Cuba and/or Hispaniola, a major hurricane at landfall. If not, a Cat 1 or Cat 2. Major, but not a Cat 5 or higher end Cat 4, due to upwelled water in the Central and Eastern Gulf from Gustav.


At 10 days out, I reserve the right to revise, without reservation. Unless someone accepts error cone for 12 pack.

[ROCK]

6Z GFS kind of looks like the Canadian on Ike in the Gulf, however, the 6Z GFS has Ike as a very weak system, which would be somewhat immune from feeling troughs in the Westerlies well to the North, and Ike probably wouldn't be a weak system in the Gulf. Things can change, but right now I think the Euro solution might be the right one.

the right one??? 240 hrs out??? I will take that bet...what was it, a 6 pk of shiner? I will hand deliver it if the 240 hr EURO come to fruition......

Lol...careful ROCK...if memory serves me correctly you made a similar bet with me over Gustav's models....and im still patiently awaiting my reward

Your in LA....and beer doesnt travel well....

[Wx_Warrior]

Of course some of yall like the EURO, it puts it @ LA's backdoor again. I do remember some rolling their eyes at the EURO this far out for Gustav.

Let's be real, most people who make predictions this far out with an exact landfall are wrong.

Just the little time Gustav spent over Cuba likely saved Louisiana from a 4 and never "BOMBED" after spending time of those GOM waters, like most were saying on here. So, IF, Ike goes over cuba, expect weakening.

I wouldn't dare make a prediction this far out. Heck if GFS is right, Ike won't become much of anything.

Anything WILL happen.

[ROCK]

Double Post. Not sure if Shiner bet allows for fairly narrow 10 day error cone.


Disclaimer: Unofficial prognosis by a rank amateur to follow, at times so far out into the future, it is little more than speculation, and is not endorsed by Storm2K.


Based on GFS 500 mb (not surface position of too weak a system), Canadian, excellent agreement on 5 day tracks- I think the Euro is close, a path through Florida Straits, extreme Northern Greater Antilles or South Florida, generally West, and a turn Northwestward, toward somewhere between Lake Charles, LA and A'p'cola, Florida. Mid point- MSY to MOB. If Ike avoids too much of Cuba and/or Hispaniola, a major hurricane at landfall. If not, a Cat 1 or Cat 2. Major, but not a Cat 5 or higher end Cat 4, due to upwelled water in the Central and Eastern Gulf from Gustav.


At 10 days out, I reserve the right to revise, without reservation. Unless someone accepts error cone for 12 pack.

Ed, upwelling for Gus is not an issue now or even 10 days from now...... Got to remember Gus was not exacty an upwelling machine in its history over the LC....Watch this map for potential in the upcoming days.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL



Second, your basing your track on a 10 day GFS 500mb chart? 10 days away? 200+ hrs out? not wise my fellow Houstonian,,,,



HOWEVER, since I am a betting man, and I would like you to eat your "Texas Season over" thread you so put out in the second week of August, I AM willing to revisit this wager sometime in the next 5 days. Say around the weekend. Your cone basically encompasses the 3/4 of the GOM.....not much room for error....narrow it down some and And I will put out my cone in a few days.........


I got this gut feeling I will be drinking a 12pk of shiner next to my pool after this is all over......

[Portastorm]

Oh this is killing me ... I want in on the action!!

Maybe I'll just barge my way into ROCK's party and have a cold Shiner or two in celebration.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double Post. Not sure if Shiner bet allows for fairly narrow 10 day error cone.


Disclaimer: Unofficial prognosis by a rank amateur to follow, at times so far out into the future, it is little more than speculation, and is not endorsed by Storm2K.


Based on GFS 500 mb (not surface position of too weak a system), Canadian, excellent agreement on 5 day tracks- I think the Euro is close, a path through Florida Straits, extreme Northern Greater Antilles or South Florida, generally West, and a turn Northwestward, toward somewhere between Lake Charles, LA and A'p'cola, Florida. Mid point- MSY to MOB. If Ike avoids too much of Cuba and/or Hispaniola, a major hurricane at landfall. If not, a Cat 1 or Cat 2. Major, but not a Cat 5 or higher end Cat 4, due to upwelled water in the Central and Eastern Gulf from Gustav.


At 10 days out, I reserve the right to revise, without reservation. Unless someone accepts error cone for 12 pack.

Ed, upwelling for Gus is not an issue now or even 10 days from now...... Got to remember Gus was not exacty an upwelling machine in its history over the LC....Watch this map for potential in the upcoming days.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL



Second, your basing your track on a 10 day GFS 500mb chart? 10 days away? 200+ hrs out? not wise my fellow Houstonian,,,,



HOWEVER, since I am a betting man, and I would like you to eat your "Texas Season over" thread you so put out in the second week of August, I AM willing to revisit this wager sometime in the next 5 days. Say around the weekend. Your cone basically encompasses the 3/4 of the GOM.....not much room for error....narrow it down some and And I will put out my cone in a few days.........


I got this gut feeling I will be drinking a 12pk of shiner next to my pool after this is all over......

The image below will have a little red x in it until about 9 am tomorrow morning. Lets see if we don't see a line of lighter yellow from Cuba to Louisiana amongst the tans and browns, shall we?

[Aristotle]

Misunderstood,

I totally agree. Although I will say it going to be a combination of both the ability to pay for the evac and the absolute refusal to submit to the weather. Either way or both. The government is going to have to figure out something. We can't give up NOLA!


Ed. Your image was not present!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Misunderstood,

I totally agree. Although I will say it going to be a combination of both the ability to pay for the evac and the absolute refusal to submit to the weather. Either way or both. The government is going to have to figure out something. We can't give up NOLA!


Ed. Your image was not present!

It will magically appear about 9 am CDT tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian says Yucatan, and brings up the possibility of a double Mexico hit. However, it is the Canadian.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS- very, very weak (which I'm not sure I trust), with a 1008 mb point low on Western tip of Cuba in a week, and 500 mb flow that would start turning a stronger system more Northward.

[mattpetre]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I told my wife I'd take a break from hurricane watching until this became more of a threat to the GOM or our area, but a bet with Shiner involved is too hard to turn down. I'm putting up my 10+ days map right here and now and willing to take anyone in the Galleria area of Houston (I know you are Ed) out for a few beers after the storm or even better I'll happily go let you buy me a few... So here's my forecast track 10+ days out and I'm going to stick to it no matter how painful it may get 5 or 6 days from now

So here it is, anything in the extremely small cone (at us landfall) gets me many beers and even more headaches in other ways (I really don't want to see this and I realize it's just a strange form of -removed-).

*THIS IS THE POSTER'S IMAGE AND NOT IN ANY WAY TIED TO AN ACTUAL FORECAST PATH OR NHC OPINION*
*IT IS ONLY AN AMATEUR'S ATTEMPT AT PREDICTIVE MODELLING VERY FAR INTO THE FUTURE*

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez...forecasting landfalls 10/11 days out...you guys should be ashamed of yourselves. lol.