ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Well...considering the model consensus....this storm indeed may make a bit of history.

A bit of history? Could you explain that please - thanks.

Based on climatology, a storm forming at such a high latitute, normally doesn't travel straight westward. Most recurve to the north.



See.

[cycloneye]

From todays plan of the day:

POSSIBLY START 12-HRLY FIXES ON
TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 05/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 69.0W.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[HURAKAN]

("dark mood" melody [similar to A Haunting], it's raining) "In a surreal world, a tropical cyclone forms near 20N and 40W and travels in a straight light like an arrow."

[bahamaswx]

Quite the unnerving track for us here in the south-central Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,what model is the yellow line one that moves close to my house?

[Driftin]

How reliable are these models? especially the NGFDL. I sure do not like that tack.

[RL3AO]

HURAKAN,what model is the yellow line one that moves close to my house?

GFDL run with NOGAPS data instead of GFS.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN,what model is the yellow line one that moves close to my house?

GFDL?

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,what model is the yellow line one that moves close to my house?

GFDL run with NOGAPS data instead of GFS.

Oh the conservative NOGAPS.

[GoneBabyGone]

Odds this heads into the Gulf and becomes another thread to NO?

(I know it's way too early to tell for sure)

[Ed Mahmoud]

HURAKAN,what model is the yellow line one that moves close to my house?

GFDL run with NOGAPS data instead of GFS.

Oh the conservative NOGAPS.

NOGAPS and UK Met have not impressed me this season. GFDL, when it is constant for a few runs, seems excellent. GFS has been pretty good, Euro has been ok.

See model thread for more details.

Disclaimer: Unofficial prognosis by a rank amateur to follow, at times so far out into the future, it is little more than speculation, and is not endorsed by Storm2K.


Based on GFS 500 mb (not surface position of too weak a system), Canadian, excellent agreement on 5 day tracks- I think the Euro is close, a path through Florida Straits, extreme Northern Greater Antilles or South Florida, generally West, and a turn Northwestward, toward somewhere between Lake Charles, LA and A'p'cola, Florida. Mid point- Mobile. If Ike avoids too much of Cuba and/or Hispaniola, a major hurricane at landfall. If not, a Cat 1 or Cat 2. Major, but not a Cat 5 or higher end Cat 4, due to upwelled water in the Central and Eastern Gulf from Gustav.


At 10 days out, I reserve the right to revise, without reservation.

[BigA]

I thought Ike looked sort of crummy when I got up this morning, but every image ive seen since then looks better. It is starting to look like a banding eye could form later today.

[cycloneye]

An Eye Feature?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea Luis he is getting his act together quick..He just ate 90L i believe..

[terrapintransit]

:uarrow: Yea Luis he is getting his act together quick..He just ate 90L i believe..

He could certainly turn into a monster. Has a nice long favorable track...favorable for development that is

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow: Yea Luis he is getting his act together quick..He just ate 90L i believe..

GFS and Canadian yesterday at 12Z showed 850 vort max of 90L getting sheared between Hanna and Ike, and each one ingesting some of it. Almost like TC cannibalism, although 90L wasn't quite a TC yet.

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike looks impressive on visible...definitely getting organized in a hurry. Anyone not falling for this Cat 2 forecast by the NHC?

Assuming Hanna and Ike are where they are projected to be by the NHC...I just can't see much stopping this from becoming a Category Three....definitely a highly conservative intensity forecast...typical of the NHC.

[Scorpion]

The NHC will probably wait until it becomes a hurricane to upgrade the intensity forecast.

[bob rulz]

I thought the forecast was for increased shear later in the forecast?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Yea Luis he is getting his act together quick..He just ate 90L i believe..

Whart left of 90L is that area to the left of the pic I posted.