ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[NEXRAD]

Most of the early morning models (GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, etc.) appear to have shifted closer to the FL east coast, partially as a result of the S/SW movement in Hanna. She is clearly being sheared sharply at this point, with the LLC exposed at the NW corner of the main ball of convection. IF Hanna can survive or at least not weaken too much in the next 24-hour period of severe shear, it is possible the FL east coast gets more out of this storm than I expected when I went to bad last night.

Both the GFDL and HWRF shifted left. The more right models (e.g., the current CMC) initialized Hanna too far north and east from the actual circulation position for me to regard their outputs as greatly. The rule with Hanna is that as of this morning, no one from South Florida through North Carolina can count themselves as "in the clear" just yet.

- Jay

[KWT]

I've got a sneaky feeling that north Florida be the main target given the slow westerly motion we are seeing right now.

Everyone still needs to watch what Hanna does very closely, as others have said from S.Fla upto the Carolinas need to watch this.

[Category 5]

Hopefully, best case, this stays a TS and provides some drought relief. I know we can use rain in NJ, and NC needs it more.

[deltadog03]

Thats a good point there KWT....It seems that most models, for now, have shifted to near there. How strong were the GFDL and HWRF (6z runs)

[gatorcane]

Most of the early morning models (GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, etc.) appear to have shifted closer to the FL east coast, partially as a result of the S/SW movement in Hanna. She is clearly being sheared sharply at this point, with the LLC exposed at the NW corner of the main ball of convection. IF Hanna can survive or at least not weaken too much in the next 24-hour period of severe shear, it is possible the FL east coast gets more out of this storm than I expected when I went to bad last night.

Both the GFDL and HWRF shifted left. The more right models (e.g., the current CMC) initialized Hanna too far north and east from the actual circulation position for me to regard their outputs as greatly. The rule with Hanna is that as of this morning, no one from South Florida through North Carolina can count themselves as "in the clear" just yet.

- Jay

Well considering Hanna is getting hit with 30K+ of shear from the NNW at the moment (my best estimate), she's definitely becoming more shallow and succumbing to a more SW or W movement with the low-level steering.

I agree with that assessment. South Florida to the Carolinas still.

[canes04]

She should be back to cat 1 tonight as the shear lessons.
The further south and west she goes this could be a FL storm as the high builds in.
Don't let your guard down yet south and central Florida.

Plus Ike is down the pike and could threaten us early next week.

[Chacor]

What is Stacy Stewart referring to in his 5AM discussion, when he notes the some "automatic intensity plotting software" may cause the storm to appear to be weakening at landfall?

The software they use for their advisories, I'm assuming. That's because it gives a 72 hour and 96 hour position and intensity forecast (90 kt and 55 kt), but not an 84 hour (which he mentioned a number of times in his discussion could be around the time of landfall). He probably wants to stress that at landfall it could be stronger than 90 kt, rather than weaker (which is what a 90 kt to 55 kt change would imply).

[NEXRAD]

Thats a good point there KWT....It seems that most models, for now, have shifted to near there. How strong were the GFDL and HWRF (6z runs)

GFDL showed around 100 knots (surface); HWRF 80 knots (surface).

- Jay

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I feel that this will probably be an east coast storm, but I am still watching this one. If she wanders around down there a little longer than expected, and especially further south and west, that may give more time for the ridge to build further west and nudge her opening further west as well. She may end up traveling up the spine of Florida, or possibly take that path up the western side of the state.
That looks unlikely right now, but not impossible if the trend keeps shifting west.

I do think the general path...NW to N to NNE around the ridge will verify, it just depends where that turn will start.

[x-y-no]

Transatlantic follow-the-leader!

[Stormtrack03]

Transatlantic follow-the-leader!

[KWT]

x-y-no, thats a pretty mental looking map there got to admit, the train has well and truely left the station!

I suspect the models are still expecting this to be a powerful system in the next 12-18hrs which won't be happening, I think they may be a bit too quick in the lifting out to the NW.

[NEXRAD]

x-y-no, thats a pretty mental looking map there got to admit, the train has well and truely left the station!

I suspect the models are still expecting this to be a powerful system in the next 12-18hrs which won't be happening, I think they may be a bit too quick in the lifting out to the NW.

Much agreed; based on the low-level features I'm looking at, I'd expect a shallower Hanna to move generally between west and southwest throughout the day, which would keep the system noticeably left of all reliable guidance. (Note: this is for the shorterm, not the long term. How such movement would affect Hanna's medium and long range evolution, if at all, remains to be seen.)

- Jay

[gatorcane]

well KWT the European models agree with you and didn't think Hanna would pull NW so quickly.....more of a dive SW then a bend WNW to NW....

[gtsmith]

Transatlantic follow-the-leader!

Choo!! Choo!! chug-a-chug-a-chugga-chugga Choo! Choo!

[sorry...had to let off a little steam - pun intended]

[Sanibel]

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Ah coffee! Morning blokes.

Stall and drift south above the gap in between Hispaniola and Cuba. Not the dramatic dip south on the models a few days ago but mildly similar.

Hurricane friday off east coast. We should see some rain on the weak west side from that here on the SW coast of Florida.

[Blown Away]

I was looking at the visible and turned on the NHC track points and saw that point to the east and thought is was some software/graphic glitch and I then realized it was Ike, brainfart. This has been one heck of a few weeks in the tropics.

[AtlanticWind]

I wonder if we will see a shift on the track at 11am or if they will wait for anothe round of models?

[NEXRAD]

well KWT the European models agree with you and didn't think Hanna would pull NW so quickly.....more of a dive SW then a bend WNW to NW....

Which models and run-times? The 00Z Euro is in-line with the guidance envelope while the 00Z UKMET is a bit right of the 06Z GFDL.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

well KWT the European models agree with you and didn't think Hanna would pull NW so quickly.....more of a dive SW then a bend WNW to NW....

Which models and run-times? The 00Z Euro is in-line with the guidance envelope while the 00Z UKMET is a bit right of the 06Z GFDL.

- Jay

So I was referring to the UKMET and ECMWF models before yesterday. If you look back at the archive, the UKMET and Euro for several days agreed on this scenario. In fact both kept showing the East Coast of FL, especially South Florida as the target zone...The Euro showed the same general track for at least 4-5 days starting mid last week.

of course those two models have shifted in the past 1 or 2 runs to the dynamic model consensus...