ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Yep I think we should take seriously the chance this hits Cuba and maybe even DR/Haiti, the high to its north is a real beast and every system that gets around 50-60W is going to get shunted westwards, maybe even south of west.

I'm starting to think Ike may take a track lsightly north of Georges but still south enough to take a major blow on northern Haiti and possibly landfall on Cuba.

Certainly is impressive to see the models forecast what they are!

Finally I see no reason why this won't be a major hurricane before being a threat down the road.

[Sabanic]

Yep I think we should take seriously the chance this hits Cuba and maybe even DR/Haiti, the high to its north is a real beast and every system that gets around 50-60W is going to get shunted westwards, maybe even south of west.

I'm starting to think Ike may take a track lsightly north of Georges but still south enough to take a major blow on northern Haiti and possibly landfall on Cuba.

Certainly is impressive to see the models forecast what they are!

Finally I see no reason why this won't be a major hurricane before being a threat down the road.

Looks like we'll have 4-5 weeks of non-stop watching for now. Crazy!!

[KWT]

the thing that needs to be watched is Hanna, the longer it takes to lift the more the north Ike will get and also the greater the outflow and therefore shear will be on Ike. I think for now the NHC ideas of holding back on making Ike too strong is a good idea given the uncertianty surrounding Hanna.

[HURAKAN]

Ike wants to make history.

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan and unless the models are seriously wrong then its going to do it in style and be a real outlier.

Sttill the pattern across the Atlantic does suggest a Ike will be tracking far enough west to be a threat to Cuba and the east coast of the US at least for now anyway.

[karenfromheaven]

I'd guess it's been asked, but what's up with HWRF and the pressure/wind disconnect. 925 mb and only 90 some knots peak wind? It's been doing that for other runs, right?

A few days ago in the Gustav thread, Derek said not to trust the pressure in the HWRF model because it was a derived variable. He didn't say anything more to explain himself in that particular post. Perhaps someone else can elaborate here.

[KWT]

ike doesn't seem to be prpducing a whole lot of deep convection right now, any deep convection is on the eastern side of the circulation.

Still circulation is pretty evident and there is decent wrap round, center is around 18.1N, 44.3W roughly.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 011245.GIF

Ike is no hurry to intensify at the moment. Maybe it injested some dry air and that's keeping the western quadrant mostly convective free. Still, it has a vigorous circulation and great shape to it.

We already had a great Ike and this Ike is likely not to disappoint.

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah it seems to be really having a hard time sustaining deep convection near its center, maybe some low level divergence is present right now or maybe the convergence is lacking who knows but whilst I don't think its weakening it doesn't appear to be strengthening right now.

[AJC3]

You can see a small naked swirl out ahead of Ike near 20N 57.5W, drifting northward. If I'm not mistaken, that's our old friend ex-90L.

[cpdaman]

This is as straight a hurricane forecasting situation as it gets. Large/Strong Atlantic Ridge pushing westward to the north of a TC indicated by just about all guidance. Still it would be an unusual event for even September at this latitude for a TC to track that far westward from the mid-Atlantic and make it to the Gulf, particularly south of Florida. I cannot bring any recent storm to mind for sure.

is it really? ike looks stronger earlier.........UL trough to the west looks like it is holding on longer......won't this go NW any time now as in "ike make a right at ULL exit"

so i ask again, any pro-mets out there.........let's forget the models for a sec

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html

are we SURE the ridge is going to be expanding far west into this picture w/o major weakness pulling her up up and away in the next 72 hours

[HURAKAN]

My worry at this point is that the ridge doesn't expand west enough to encompass Florida and allow Ike to turn WNW or NW after reaching the Bahamas. It's too far out yet.

[USTropics]

The HWRF uses a very complex equation to figure out the pressure, which includes using the storms size as a variable in determining the pressure gradient. Also the HWRF model does best when the system traverses through low shear environments, as it has problems with the mid to upper-level structure (it's noted that they use the GSI to try and correct these issues).

[cycloneye]

Best Track at 12:00 UTC increases the winds to 50kts.

AL, 09, 2008090212, , BEST, 0, 188N, 443W, 50, 1002, TS,

[KWT]

Surprising they raised the winds to 50kts with the lack of deep convection but the shape of Ike is still pretty impressive so I suppose I can understand that.

I'd have placed the center a touch further north but seems like its on forecast track.

[deltadog03]

KWT, like you said before...I think IKE's track shows some potential questions. He is rapidly approaching the area of shear just east of hanna. He needs to slow a touch...

[Frank2]

Per the current position of 19N 44W - if you told this to long-time Miamians, they'd say "It's too far north to come here!", and, they'd usually be correct, since that high a latitude that far east usually means an early recurve away from Florida...

And, the trough in the mid-Atlanitic is stronger than forecast, so, a recurve is possible...

I was a little perplexed at the "straight-line" models of yesterday, which had Ike moving due west for almost 2,000 miles (which would be highly unusual), but, it's very possible that today's model run will look different, based on the trough's strength this morning...

[gatorcane]

Per the current position of 19N 44W - if you told this to long-time Miamians, they'd say "It's too far north to come here!", and, they'd usually be correct, since that high a latitude that far east usually means an early recurve away from Florida...

And, the trough in the mid-Atlanitic is stronger than forecast, so, a recurve is possible...

I was a little perplexed at the "straight-line" models of yesterday, but, it's very possible that today's model run will look different, based on the trough's strength this morning...

Frank all dynamic model guidance shows a huge subtropical ridge building westward across most of the Atlantic. So don't look at what is happening at this point, the high is building westward in tandem with Ike and will likely overpower this trough.

Hanna may have an opportunity to impact Ike's steering more than anything but don't count on a trough at this time.

[KWT]

Problem is Frank the pattern is very long indeed, in other words once this system reaches around 50W there really isn't a weakness at all to recurve this away as its a large slack high pressure the whole way to the east coast in the subtropics. So whilst I do think it may gain some more latitude the odds are this will bend near due west from 50-55W onwards...

Its a pretty rare set-up but the set-up with Dean was very similar indeed but further south...

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, Joe Bastardi says models over-estimating ridge, and this will target East Coast, not certain where yet.


On a side note, JB thinks Hanna could bring hurricane force winds on the coast possibly as far North as NYC area.