ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Hockey007]

Look at how her convection is flattening out:

It looks like Hanna's putting up her shields against Gustav's outflow .

[KWT]

Yeah it does sort of look like that!

I'd be surprised if it manages to get much further south then where it is now, surely going to have to lift out soon!

[O Town]

Hanna is not going anywhere any time soon as long as this big high is sitting to its north. MAybe this is what is continueing to push her ssw.

I agree, its pretty obvious from looking at that map why she looks the way she does on Satellite.
She is getting pinched in between the 2 highs and its creating lots of shear. Look at the shear
coming at her from the North east.

[chris_fit]

Good Morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

She really gives the illusion of booking it to the South. Also, her "shield" is getting quite a beating...

[KWT]

I wouldnt be surprised if the movement south is just an illusion and its actually jusy getting hammered by a new round of shear as O town shows, theres a fair amount nearby.

[Blown Away]

Just waking up, so has Hanna moved more S or SW than expected? Does this delay the NW movement and if so does that allow the ridge to build a bit farther W as Hanna starts moving NW?

[sunnyday]

Someone from the NHC was on SE Fl radio this a. m. and said that the area would be getting tropical storm force winds tomorrow. Should that cause a trop. storm watch in the area?

[chris_fit]

FWIW.... 06Z GFS has substantial shift to the west....

[apocalypt-flyer]

The question that begs to be asked is why there haven't been ANY WARNINGS for Haiti's North Coast so far. If Hanna continues drifting south she won't be far away from landfalling.

Oh and the lovely Lady on the Weather Channel said that hanna has been moving west at 2mph over the past hours when the satellite view is showing quite clearly something else. .

[O Town]

Someone from the NHC was on SE Fl radio this a. m. and said that the area would be getting tropical storm force winds tomorrow. Should that cause a trop. storm watch in the area?

No I don't think by tomorrow.
More like Thursday or Friday depending on when she decides to lift out.

[KWT]

I do not know thats a very good point I think they really should be putting up at least TS warnings now, the NHC may well be forecasting Hanna to move nortth but right now the convection is pretty much on top of the island.

I think the center may become exposed soon if this shear doesn't ease off very soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL is much further west, showing NFL landfall. Much to close for comfort.

[KWT]

Yeah it seems like most models are shifting westwards, starting to look like N.Florida is the most likely target for any landfalling system.

[apocalypt-flyer]

The possibility of a Georgia landfall keeps on sticking in my head but that's just a feeling, nothing more. It all depends on when Hanna stops cuddling Hispaniola and makes her move NW.

[boca]

It sure looks like its moving south what happens if it hits Haiti, That will throw the models off.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Meso]

I agree with KWT about the possibility of an exposed center if the shear doesn't let up. If you look at the floater loop you can see that the low level clouds aren't really moving South with the storm, but it appears to be primarily the convection which is being pushed to the South, the low level clouds remain is almost the same place, maybe a slight SW motion, but not anything like the way the convection is moving.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm per 8 AM Advisory.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye not all that surprising given the way the presentation has gone down the pan in the last 6hrs or so thanks to the new bout of shear.

[Meso]

Visible

[gatorcane]

about the southward movement, the Stewart mentioned in the 5AM disco (another great discussion by the way) about big implications to the track depending upon how much southward movement and ridging which remains to be seen:

AND THE EXACT TRACK OF HANNA
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0859.shtml