ATL: IKE Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

Hard to swallow that a storm that far out at that lattitude will make it all the way west to pass over or below S Fla , but hard to argue with the models.

[crazycajuncane]

Another storm to have on the mind? At least we have over 10 days to worry about this one.

[cpdaman]

Another storm to have on the mind? At least we have over 10 days to worry about this one.

you might, but i measure 6 days to FL , should it stay that far south

[Recurve]

Horrible runs of the GFDL and HWRF -- showing a very strong storm tracking just north of the Antilles, about the only place from which South Florida can be hit without any land interference beforehand.

[Sanibel]

Horrible runs of the GFDL and HWRF -- showing a very strong storm tracking just north of the Antilles, about the only place from which South Florida can be hit without any land interference beforehand.

Interesting track heads down towards the north shore of Cuba at the end of the run where climatology will almost certainly pick it back up north. Nightmare Donna track possible from this. Do I think that will happen? - no way. GFDL loses 99L half way across the Atlantic in that same run. Not likely.

The nightmare of this track is that it evolves poleward, as most would, and bee-lines a strong cyclone into Miami.

[Recurve]

Horrible runs of the GFDL and HWRF -- showing a very strong storm tracking just north of the Antilles, about the only place from which South Florida can be hit without any land interference beforehand.

Interesting track heads down towards the north shore of Cuba at the end of the run where climatology will almost certainly pick it back up north. Nightmare Donna track possible from this. Do I think that will happen? - no way. GFDL loses 99L half way across the Atlantic in that same run. Not likely.

The nightmare of this track is that it evolves poleward, as most would, and bee-lines a strong cyclone into Miami.

Exactly. No Donnas. Or Labor Day storms
Isn't it GFS that loses Ike, if I remember what I just looked at, there's a break in the ridge after Hanna goes north and Ike is still mid-Atlantic. Or does GFDL do that. Probably I'm confused because both Hanna and Ike are a (possible) threat here and I've been watching too much about Gustav.

Hanna is less concerning cause I gather the UKMet backed off having it swoop more southwestward before it's picked up, and the agreement on no Florida landfall seems pretty good.

[PTrackerLA]

Sitting here with the winds of Gustav still blowing, thankful I made it through with power (while my neighbors right behind me run generators, my street never lost power!), and seeing Ike and possibly Josephine wanting to threaten the US makes me sick. This ain't good folks.

[Canelaw99]

Interesting track heads down towards the north shore of Cuba at the end of the run where climatology will almost certainly pick it back up north. Nightmare Donna track possible from this. Do I think that will happen? - no way. GFDL loses 99L half way across the Atlantic in that same run. Not likely.

The nightmare of this track is that it evolves poleward, as most would, and bee-lines a strong cyclone into Miami.

Wasn't the Euro showing that scenario a couple days ago? Of course it was showing Hannah hitting here first, but I remember it showing another storm hitting here right afterwards...

[Recurve]

OT: Glad to hear you have power in Lafayette!

Something tells me, just gut feeling, Ike doesn't get into the Gulf.
NOT A FORECAST, I'm just overdosed on storm coverage.

[Recurve]

I'd guess it's been asked, but what's up with HWRF and the pressure/wind disconnect. 925 mb and only 90 some knots peak wind? It's been doing that for other runs, right?

[caneseddy]

Horrible runs of the GFDL and HWRF -- showing a very strong storm tracking just north of the Antilles, about the only place from which South Florida can be hit without any land interference beforehand.

Interesting track heads down towards the north shore of Cuba at the end of the run where climatology will almost certainly pick it back up north. Nightmare Donna track possible from this. Do I think that will happen? - no way. GFDL loses 99L half way across the Atlantic in that same run. Not likely.

The nightmare of this track is that it evolves poleward, as most would, and bee-lines a strong cyclone into Miami.

Exactly. No Donnas. Or Labor Day storms
Isn't it GFS that loses Ike, if I remember what I just looked at, there's a break in the ridge after Hanna goes north and Ike is still mid-Atlantic. Or does GFDL do that. Probably I'm confused because both Hanna and Ike are a (possible) threat here and I've been watching too much about Gustav.

Hanna is less concerning cause I gather the UKMet backed off having it swoop more southwestward before it's picked up, and the agreement on no Florida landfall seems pretty good.

Actually the only model that shows a break in the ridge with Ike way out is the UKMET, which is the outlier in this case as it is with Hanna. All other guidance indicates a hurricane in the Southern Bahamas by the end of the weekend, with the GFDL and HRWF, as usual showing a major Cat 4-5 hurricane in that area

[CrazyC83]

Another storm to have on the mind? At least we have over 10 days to worry about this one.

you might, but i measure 6 days to FL , should it stay that far south

It may slow down though...

[LAwxrgal]

OT: Glad to hear you have power in Lafayette!

Something tells me, just gut feeling, Ike doesn't get into the Gulf.
NOT A FORECAST, I'm just overdosed on storm coverage.

It is September after all, and in September troughs start showing up in advance of fall. I don't think there's any possible way Ike trucks all the way through the Atlantic without braking for animals or taking a hard right turn.

[AJC3]

Interesting track heads down towards the north shore of Cuba at the end of the run where climatology will almost certainly pick it back up north. Nightmare Donna track possible from this. Do I think that will happen? - no way. GFDL loses 99L half way across the Atlantic in that same run. Not likely.
The nightmare of this track is that it evolves poleward, as most would, and bee-lines a strong cyclone into Miami.

When you say "it loses 99L", are you talking about the graphics? Keep in mind that both the HWRF and the GFDL run as nested models off of the GFS background field. When you look at the graphical representation of one storm, and see another storm or invest in the background, the GFDL isn't handling that storm at all.

To see what I mean, check the 72 hour forecast graphics from 18Z for each storm - Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and 99L.

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Gus.jpg
http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Hanna.jpg
http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Ike.jpg
http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/99L.jpg

Notice how different each of the cyclones look in each other's model run at the same time!

[HURAKAN]

Ike liking the Atlantic so far. Organization is increasing.

[Chacor]

Remember that the TS Ike forecast prediction challenge is still open until tomorrow morning:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102951

[bahamaswx]

Great outflow! Tiny storm, but looks to be growing.

[KWT]

Well Ike does look pretty strong right now and developing nicely.

Most models suggests its going to either run into Haiti or Cuba then track into the gulf but I think we need to first see how long Hanna takes to life out because it could possibly induce enough weakness to lift the system more than expected by the models.

Still this is looking like a pretty classic long tracking powerful hurricane.

[Sihara]

Ike gets a mention on our hazardous weather, but it's not specific as to what those "impacts" might be:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
509 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2008.…

…..TROPICAL STORM IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS IN OUR AREA SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

[Cookiely]

Honestly, I wouldn't put much faith in ANY of the model forecasts past day 3.

Remember Hannah? Most, if not all, models forecasted the storm to move well NW before making a HUGE southward motion toward Cuba. Yes, the storm is located near the general area, but the details of the forecast were very far off and the HUGE southward motion toward Cuba never materialized.

Just look at models through day 3. AFTER day 3, look at them just for guidance and even entertainment.

Its being verified as we speak. Wierd.