ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

From 11 PM advisory.Last forecast point has winds at 90kts,an increase from the 5 PM advisory.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

[Blown Away]

Ike blows way above the 20N/60W Hebert Box. Difficult to see a storm at that latitude make it to SFL/GOM.

[bahamaswx]

Thank god for a 300mile cone of error.

[HURAKAN]

Ike blows way above the 20N/60W Hebert Box. Difficult to see a storm at that latitude make it to SFL/GOM.

To hit Florida from the deep Atlantic in not necessary to check to Hebert box. The "box" just indicates that "most" hurricanes that have impacted SFL passed through the area. It doesn't say all.

[ROCK]

Thank god for a 300mile cone of error.

that is pretty straight forward.....

[GeneratorPower]

Sorry, the Dwight Eisenhower stuff is unavoidable with a name like Ike.

[cycloneye]

[LAwxrgal]

I get the feeling I won't like Ike very much.

[micktooth]

This is as straight a hurricane forecasting situation as it gets. Large/Strong Atlantic Ridge pushing westward to the north of a TC indicated by just about all guidance. Still it would be an unusual event for even September at this latitude for a TC to track that far westward from the mid-Atlantic and make it to the Gulf, particularly south of Florida. I cannot bring any recent storm to mind for sure.

My first evacuation: GEORGES 1998!

[bahamaswx]

120hr forecast almost exactly lines up with Hanna's current position.

[Sanibel]

Straight tracks are rare but they do happen.

I'm having trouble computing so many storms out there and a lone monster that barrels into Florida right out of the Atlantic. I can't compute Hanna lifting out and Ike going straight. They have to be building a ridge back into the void Hanna vacates.

I'm with Hyperstorm, this will change.

My theory says so many storms makes all of them a little weaker.


Perfect set-up for Donna II.

[boca]

Straight tracks are rare but they do happen.

I'm having trouble computing so many storms out there and a lone monster that barrels into Florida right out of the Atlantic. I can't compute Hanna lifting out and Ike going straight. They have to be building a ridge back into the void Hanna vacates.

I'm with Hyperstorm, this will change.

My theory says so many storms makes all of them a little weaker.


Perfect set-up for Donna II.

Sanibel do you have a link to Hyperstorm's post?

[ROCK]

Straight tracks are rare but they do happen.

I'm having trouble computing so many storms out there and a lone monster that barrels into Florida right out of the Atlantic. I can't compute Hanna lifting out and Ike going straight. They have to be building a ridge back into the void Hanna vacates.

I'm with Hyperstorm, this will change.

My theory says so many storms makes all of them a little weaker.

Here is a map I use to gauge what the basin can support....as you can see even with all the activity, it can support 4's and some 5's if conditions are right....


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


You guys forget that Gus moved in a almost straight line from Cube into LA....that is rare but it does happen...

[Driftin]

is there a possibility that this might turn SW into PR?

[Weatherfreak000]

Not likely...the ridge may be strong enough to push it WSW however...actually don't think this will gain that much latitude. A track under Florida is definitely the highest likely scenario.

[Sanibel]

Hyperstorm's post:

Honestly, I wouldn't put much faith in ANY of the model forecasts past day 3.

Remember Hannah? Most, if not all, models forecasted the storm to move well NW before making a HUGE southward motion toward Cuba. Yes, the storm is located near the general area, but the details of the forecast were very far off and the HUGE southward motion toward Cuba never materialized.

Just look at models through day 3. AFTER day 3, look at them just for guidance and even entertainment.

[bahamaswx]

is there a possibility that this might turn SW into PR?

A storm hitting PR from the north would certainly be unusual, but stranger things have happened. More likely would be that he rides along the southern edge of the cone. Regardless, it's certainly within the realm of possible outcomes.

[lbvbl]

What would you deem more likely: a SFL hit, or straight into the GOM?

[tolakram]

[HURAKAN]

It's still too far to tell what will happen after 5 days. Nonetheless, at some point the ridge will weaken. We have to wait.