ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[windycity]

Anybody up for a hanna support group?

[cpdaman]

i just thought i would take a second to say what a great board this is.......the mods.....the posters.......sure occasionally some one gets testy......but .......when their lives are up in the air (due to a storm) occasionally that stuff happens.......i feel like i have been glued on this board ever since FAY was developing

[HURRICANELONNY]

When the middle of the cone isn't on me. I get more stressed then when it is.

[KWT]

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

I think hanna is getting to the point where she is about to try to wrap that convection to her north around the center and develop an eye. I dont think it will work just yet due to high shear, but I expect a slow strengthening over the next 36 hours, followed by a quicker strengthening when shear dies off.[/quote]


Does seem like its trying to wrap round somewhat, the other fact is its still producing huge region of very cold cloud tops as well despite maybe a slight reduction of the convection. I'm going to be very curious to see what this looks like when Dmax comes along, would think the deepest convection will possibly even expand a touch.

[AdamFirst]

Hanna is planning her next move, seems like.

[Regit]

I hope they are. I lived in Charleston, SC when Floyd approached. I left 36 hrs before landfall was expected and it took 5 and 1/2 hours to get to Columbia, SC. That is a whole 92 miles from my former home there. Like many areas, it can be an evacuation nightmare.

The one good thing now is that both I-26 out of Charleston and US 501 out of Myrtle Beach will be all lanes outbound. That should help the evacuation some next time.

[storms in NC]

I will stay in my home if it is a cat 3. A 4 I will think about it and a 5 I am out of here.

[stormchazer]

Will recon sample the building ridge to determine its strength?

Looks like the first scheduled G-IV mission is Wednesday.

SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON
HANNA BEGINNING AT 02/1800Z. A POOSIBLE G-IV
MISSION FOR 03/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF 02/1730Z.

[orion]

Does seem like its trying to wrap round somewhat, the other fact is its still producing huge region of very cold cloud tops as well despite maybe a slight reduction of the convection. I'm going to be very curious to see what this looks like when Dmax comes along, would think the deepest convection will possibly even expand a touch.

Yeah, I agree, she does have that wrap-around look to her. Those cold cloud tops look to be warming up a tad and doing a little jump to the west, but another little area of those very cold tops is forming to the east-southeast of the main blob.

[Canelaw99]

I realize Wed. is only 2 days away and she's forecast to hang out over the Bahamas a while, but I think I'd feel better if that G-IV was going out tomorrow for the first sampling. Would be nice to get some more info in the comps early on, IMO....

[storms in NC]

What's really going to be tons of fun with this storm is planning evacuations. As someone with experience in emergency management, I can attest to the fact that storms bending up the east coast at an uncertain speed can really make EM officials second guess themselves. Because of the angle of the coast line, a small jump off track can cause landfall to occur many miles up or down the coast from the forecast spot. Therefore, these type of storms can sometimes cause massive evacuations (see Floyd).

Oh so true with floyd. First was to go into Fl then Charleston Myrle Beach came in Cape Fear

[cheezyWXguy]

I will stay in my home if it is a cat 3. A 4 I will think about it and a 5 I am out of here.

Im going to be honest....thats not smart.

[orion]

Also, looking at the ir loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir4.html, look at the outer clouds to the north and northwest of hanna taking on that 'feathery' appearance.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

On the Current National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity forecast
for Hurricane Hanna, what are the highest wind gusts that may reach
Tampa Bay near the water of the Bay? I have noticed that east coast
storms that hit the Carolinas often bring strong northeast winds here.

I remember Hurricane Floyd when I was 11 years old then- and it was
VERY windy all the way on Tampa Bay even though the track was off
the East Coast and heading to the Carolinas.

I remember when Fay had
60 mph winds while off the east coast near Flagler we had an official
gust to 43 mph in Tampa Bay (see Fay summary http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw)

So how much gusts might I get? Should I bring chairs/furniture inside?

[cpdaman]

I will stay in my home if it is a cat 3. A 4 I will think about it and a 5 I am out of here.

Im going to be honest....thats not smart.

my rule is 3 and we'll see, 4 or more out the door.

[AdamFirst]

I admit I'm no expert on reading satellite imagery, but the Aviation infrared and the NHC infrared has the giant blob of convection heading west in the last few frames...is there shear coming in from the southeast or something?

[cpdaman]

I admit I'm no expert on reading satellite imagery, but the Aviation infrared and the NHC infrared has the giant blob of convection heading west in the last few frames...is there shear coming in from the southeast or something?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html

looks like the shear maybe lessening (that gustav shear "streamer/plume" is dying out just to her north..has been over her all day) ,perhaps she is deciding to wrap around the east side, instead of being just known as the massive blob of deep black infared convection. that would be bad , of course.

[orion]

I admit I'm no expert on reading satellite imagery, but the Aviation infrared and the NHC infrared has the giant blob of convection heading west in the last few frames...is there shear coming in from the southeast or something?

I believe the shear is coming from the northwest. The convection will have little bursts (or big bursts in this case) that sort of jump around like that. There is another strong area (cold cloud tops) popping upon the southeastern part of the main area of convection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this will follow the NHC track, which of course everyone from
FL to GA to the Carolinas should watch very closely.

[cpdaman]

hey look at the interaction going on in between the cut off low (near canadian maritimes) and the ULL (almost getting sucked up toward it's right side)

i remember AJC3 saying the position of the cut off low would be key to determining how far west hanna would get (it would influence the periphery of the ridge, i believe) i wonder if everything is going according to schedule on that front

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html

i think he said further east the cut off low gets the further west hanna may go......i will go back and check the earlier pages from last nite .....