ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

besides the 979.6 pressure..........the wind change from sw to ssw to S and now SSE interest me ........this would be indicative of a motion of hanna which ???????????? which way SW? SE? S?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Btw, lets not start...we are from FL we want a cane and we are from the carolinas...we want a cane...I am not saying its going now, but thats not going to help anyone get some good info on here...

I'm from neither. I'm objective.

[deltadog03]

Well, its going to depend on how strong that ridge pushes in to force some West "ness" with her.

[txwatcher91]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

besides the 979.6 pressure..........the wind change from sw to ssw to S and now SSE interest me ........this would be indicative of a motion of hanna which ???????????? which way SW? SE? S?

I believe that would mean the center has passed over/west of the station meaning a W motion.

[sfwx]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
605 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008






...CONCERNING HURRICANE HANNA...

THE OFFICIAL NHC/TPC FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE HANNA IS
SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EAST COAST OF FL FOR THERE TO BE
A THREAT OF SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN-BANDS MAKING IT INLAND BY THU.
THE MAIN CORE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE BUT SOME LOCALLY
HVY SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC WITH THE OUTER BANDS AND EVEN
SEVERAL MDLS INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS INDICATE THAT
THREAT. THE 12Z NAM QPF SEEMS WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST.

SULLIVAN/ORRISON

[txwatcher91]

Well, since there will be a trough approaching and the ridge building, the stronger and larger Hanna gets and more quickly the N turn will happen, all IMO.

[cpdaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

besides the 979.6 pressure..........the wind change from sw to ssw to S and now SSE interest me ........this would be indicative of a motion of hanna which ???????????? which way SW? SE? S?

I believe that would mean the center has passed over/west of the station meaning a W motion.

well it was already WNW of the location for several hours (bout 30 miles away) sooo......is that logic still correct ..........

[HURAKAN]

Rain affecting Eastern Cuba.

[fci]

well, not all models have shifted west. 18z GFS shifted about 50 miles east. Just thought I'd give a Carolina perspective to make sure that all you Florida folks aren't getting into a bit of "groupthink" to the detriment of accuracy.

Yep, GFS shifted east and I expect the HWRF and GFDL to shift east some along with the euro.

What are you seeing to make the prediction that those two models will shift east?

[jlauderdal]

well, not all models have shifted west. 18z GFS shifted about 50 miles east. Just thought I'd give a Carolina perspective to make sure that all you Florida folks aren't getting into a bit of "groupthink" to the detriment of accuracy.

nhc doesnt seem to know where its going so why would florida folks, btw i am have a group seance tonight at my place and we are going to all sit around in a circle and think about where it might be going, we will report back to north carolina in the morning..stay tuned

[KWT]

Yep some pretty decent cells in the outer bands there Hurakan.

Also that pressure reading of 979.6mbs is pretty impressive, not all that surprising though given the continued deep convection bursting close to the center. Recon will be interesting when is it due in next?

[txwatcher91]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

besides the 979.6 pressure..........the wind change from sw to ssw to S and now SSE interest me ........this would be indicative of a motion of hanna which ???????????? which way SW? SE? S?

I believe that would mean the center has passed over/west of the station meaning a W motion.

well it was already WNW of the location for several hours (bout 30 miles away) sooo......is that logic still correct ..........

Well, chart shows a West wind several hours ago meaning the center was to its west, now the S and SSE winds mean the center may have drifted south, sorry got my directions mixed up some.

FCI, just based on a combo of the 18Z GFS shifting east, climo, a stronger Hanna possible, and an approaching trough would mean quicker N motion, all IMO however.

[cpdaman]

convection appears to be contracting (for now)

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[x-y-no]

Btw, lets not start...we are from FL we want a cane and we are from the carolinas...we want a cane...I am not saying its going now, but thats not going to help anyone get some good info on here...

Well I'm one South Floridian who will be mightily surprised if this shifts west far enough to affect us. I've been thinking South Carolina for two days now.

Ike, on the other hand, has me a little concerned right now.

[skufful]

Check out how close it will get to you according to the NHC forecast points.

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm


Eric

14 miles for me. Hopefully like normal - things will change.

[KWT]

cpdaman, yeah does seem like thats the case but then again to hold those sorts of cloud tops for this long in the Atlantic is rather impressive, then again with the flow aloft and pretty high heat content its not all that surprising.

[HURAKAN]

Hanna is so big and likely, growing, that even if the storm follows the NHC's track, most of Florida will have some impacts.

[RevDodd]

I'll preface by noting that I'm up here in NC, and my folks live near Savannah...so either way, I'm going to be watching and praying. And believe me anyone in Florida who wants first crack at Hanna is welcome to her.

Now, I was under the impression that the bigger the storm, the more likely it was to turn poleward unless it was blocked. But earlier some folks here said that because Hanna was getting better organized, she was more likely to move to the west than earlier forecast.

Is that because the models originally figured she'd be pushed by lower level steering currents, but now a bigger storm is being steered by higher level winds? Is it that the larger size simply means there more of Hanna to love?

Thanks for any insight....

[captain east]

Ya, a little shift to the left and Hanna will eat us.

[Windtalker1]

This from the 5PM Update:

THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF
IMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. UNTIL
HANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE
MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA.

Everyone from S Florida to the Carolina's should not let their guard down.