ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[captain east]

I see her following the more UKMET track, what about you guys?

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

980mb ...

interesting .. need to find its location ...

[Blown Away]

A deeper, stronger, storm will experience greater steering influence from the mid and upper levels than a weaker system, and this will be especially true if Hanna maintains such robust convection. The mid and upper level (H50 through H25) steering patterns will maintain a mostly northerly component over the system alla ridging aloft over Florida and the Ern Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. The Atlantic ridge is being held in place, aloft, from the combined influence of Hanna and the Eward moving trough axis well north of the tropical cyclone. The southerly flow around the western axis of the Atlantic ridge will eventually begin to exert a greater influence on the storm, however, not until late Wednesday or Thursday based on the guidance I've reviewed.

The GFS has shifted steadily left with the 06Z and 12Z runs, and the UKMET has kept its left "outlier" track per the 12Z output. I'd expect the 12 and 18Z guidance to shift left with a deeper early-period Hanna.

- Jay

Is this accurate?

[Evil Jeremy]

A deeper, stronger, storm will experience greater steering influence from the mid and upper levels than a weaker system, and this will be especially true if Hanna maintains such robust convection. The mid and upper level (H50 through H25) steering patterns will maintain a mostly northerly component over the system alla ridging aloft over Florida and the Ern Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. The Atlantic ridge is being held in place, aloft, from the combined influence of Hanna and the Eward moving trough axis well north of the tropical cyclone. The southerly flow around the western axis of the Atlantic ridge will eventually begin to exert a greater influence on the storm, however, not until late Wednesday or Thursday based on the guidance I've reviewed.

The GFS has shifted steadily left with the 06Z and 12Z runs, and the UKMET has kept its left "outlier" track per the 12Z output. I'd expect the 12 and 18Z guidance to shift left with a deeper early-period Hanna.

- Jay

Is this accurate?

From what I know, yes. The stronger this gets, the more SFL will need to watch Hanna.

[KWT]

Very interesting El nino, 980.2 at that station suggestive this is probably below 980mbs now in the center, so if thats the case we are still seeing steady pressure drops thanks to that very difluent flow aloft allowing the convection to keep bursting.

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps has the center just east of the palm beaches near freeport at hour 66 with landfall near Melbourne at H+72. Models have been shifting to the left this afternoon. The ooz runs should prove beneficial. ukmet remains the outlier.

[Blown Away]

18Z Nogaps has the center just east of the palm beaches near freeport at hour 66 with landfall near Melbourne at H+72. Models have been shifting to the left this afternoon. The ooz runs should prove beneficial. ukmet remains the outlier.

What is just East of PB? Lat/long please.

[HURAKAN]

That is not a pimple, just an overshooting top!

[meteorologyman]

Is that an eye forming?
Go North of Haiti and continue north of Bahama island
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[fasterdisaster]

Very interesting El nino, 980.2 at that station suggestive this is probably below 980mbs now in the center, so if thats the case we are still seeing steady pressure drops thanks to that very difluent flow aloft allowing the convection to keep bursting.

It's now at 979.6 mb

[meteorologyman]

oh nevermind Hurakan answered it

[tallywx]

well, not all models have shifted west. 18z GFS shifted about 50 miles east. Just thought I'd give a Carolina perspective to make sure that all you Florida folks aren't getting into a bit of "groupthink" to the detriment of accuracy.

[txwatcher91]

well, not all models have shifted west. 18z GFS shifted about 50 miles east. Just thought I'd give a Carolina perspective to make sure that all you Florida folks aren't getting into a bit of "groupthink" to the detriment of accuracy.

Yep, GFS shifted east and I expect the HWRF and GFDL to shift east some along with the euro.

[Aric Dunn]

well, not all models have shifted west. 18z GFS shifted about 50 miles east. Just thought I'd give a Carolina perspective to make sure that all you Florida folks aren't getting into a bit of "groupthink" to the detriment of accuracy.

Yep, GFS shifted east and I expect the HWRF and GFDL to shift east some along with the euro.

actually early on it more west its not until days four and 5 that is slightly farther east

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I personally would think that a stronger, and thus deeper, system would head more towards the North/NNE later in the period. Feeling the pull of the approaching East Coast Trough. Just my two cents worth.

[txwatcher91]

well, not all models have shifted west. 18z GFS shifted about 50 miles east. Just thought I'd give a Carolina perspective to make sure that all you Florida folks aren't getting into a bit of "groupthink" to the detriment of accuracy.

Yep, GFS shifted east and I expect the HWRF and GFDL to shift east some along with the euro.

actually early on it more west its not until days four and 5 that is slightly farther east

That is what I meant, landfall farther N and E.

[deltadog03]

Btw, lets not start...we are from FL we want a cane and we are from the carolinas...we want a cane...I am not saying its going now, but thats not going to help anyone get some good info on here...

[greels]

Reporting from Providenciales...

Lost power for quite some time here......very quiet here at the moment

[Aric Dunn]

well, not all models have shifted west. 18z GFS shifted about 50 miles east. Just thought I'd give a Carolina perspective to make sure that all you Florida folks aren't getting into a bit of "groupthink" to the detriment of accuracy.

Yep, GFS shifted east and I expect the HWRF and GFDL to shift east some along with the euro.

actually early on it more west its not until days four and 5 that is slightly farther east

That is what I meant, landfall farther N and E.[/quote]
would not pay too much attention to days 4 and 5 though

[windycity]

Geez, when are we going to get a clearer pic on where Hanna is going? As a floridian, i am getting a little ,and i am sure i have company!! Climintology speaking,she will be pulled poleward. That is unless the ridge is stronger than what the models are predicting. Like in 2004. It is because of that year that is making me wish i had some valuim. Just kidding. Pleez, can anyone add their words of wisdom?? And where are the other mets? We need you!! Thanks!!