ATL: IKE Discussion

[RL3AO]

Still no update from the NHC ?

Advisory is out in 90 minutes.

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html -- pretty far out, of course, but the HPC's long-range (5-7 day) forecast charts show 9 moving almost due W through the Bahamas and then the FL Keys. This link is for day 7.

[Weatherboy1]

Also from the HPC's discussion of the coming week ...

THE NEXT ATLC TROPICAL SYSTEM... T.D. NINE... IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
HURRICANE STATUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND TRACK TOWARD
THE BAHAMAS AND JUST TO THE S OF FLORIDA AS PER TODAYS TPC/HPC
COORDINATION FOR DAYS 6-7.

[bob rulz]

This ridge is unnaturally strong. A storm forming at 17N, 40W should NOT be on track to hit Florida.

There is still plenty of time for this thing to recurve, but still, I don't think I've ever seen a track like that.

This has been a really strange season so far.

[Steve H.]

OH BTW, this will be Ike at 5 pm. This should stay south of Florida, but it will be close.

[Iune]

judging on the speed that the NHC has Ike going you would think that Tina is chasing him!!

What do you mean Tina?

[Sanibel]

This ridge is unnaturally strong. A storm forming at 17N, 40W should NOT be on track to hit Florida.

There is still plenty of time for this thing to recurve, but still, I don't think I've ever seen a track like that.

This has been a really strange season so far.

My thoughts upon seeing this exactly.

However I did say on the board earlier that a track similar to the great Okeechobee storm looked possible this year from the set up. (Yes, I do say that every year lol)

I will stick by my belief that if 99L runs up the back of this it will keep it from becoming a lone monster.

[wzrgirl1]

judging on the speed that the NHC has Ike going you would think that Tina is chasing him!!

What do you mean Tina?

tina turner....hence ike turner

[KWT]

Well Ike is looking decent still, I think 40kts is about right.

As others have said the models do prog a strong ridge, indeed the ECM shows a very powerful high ,enough to eventually have this in the Gulf of Mexico. Its a possiblity though the ECM was too far north with Hanna it seems.

For now its far too early to make any real forecast about Ike but needless to say I think a hurricane is very likely down the road indeed.

[johngaltfla]

Also from the HPC's discussion of the coming week ...

THE NEXT ATLC TROPICAL SYSTEM... T.D. NINE... IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
HURRICANE STATUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND TRACK TOWARD
THE BAHAMAS AND JUST TO THE S OF FLORIDA AS PER TODAYS TPC/HPC
COORDINATION FOR DAYS 6-7.

I think that might be optimistic. Latter half of Wednesday might be more realistic.

[jlauderdal]

This ridge is unnaturally strong. A storm forming at 17N, 40W should NOT be on track to hit Florida.

There is still plenty of time for this thing to recurve, but still, I don't think I've ever seen a track like that.

This has been a really strange season so far.

its called a cape verde system and long runners do happen, im sure if you look you can find plenty of systems that made it all the way across.
The last few weeks have been active but what do you find so strange about it, we are approaching the statistical peak in mid september.

[cpdaman]

with the strength of the ridge progged i see this as a potential monster that scares florida to death i.e remember floyd before he turned .........hopefully this one turns

[jlauderdal]

judging on the speed that the NHC has Ike going you would think that Tina is chasing him!!

What do you mean Tina?

ike and tina turner, back on topic or board warnings will be issued

[KWT]

Far far too early to make the call as to where Ike is going, I think this is almost certainly going to be a big player once it gets to around 60W, steady strengthening till then I'd have thought and then things go bang, it'll head into an area well able to support cat-4/5 hurricanes...

[jlauderdal]

Far far too early to make the call as to where Ike is going, I think this is almost certainly going to be a big player once it gets to around 60W, steady strengthening till then I'd have thought and then things go bang, it'll head into an area well able to support cat-4/5 hurricanes...

seems reasonable based on track and ridge setup, we need to get rid of hanna first, tune up the computers folks the next 10 days at least are going to be crazy

[MortisFL]

OH BTW, this will be Ike at 5 pm. This should stay south of Florida, but it will be close.

Glad you know it should go south of FL...you cant fine tune a forecast this far out.

[WindRunner]

45kts at 5pm...

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[jlauderdal]

OH BTW, this will be Ike at 5 pm. This should stay south of Florida, but it will be close.

Glad you know it should go south of FL...you cant fine tune a forecast this far out.

steve needs to worry about hanna and not ike considering the setup

[HURAKAN]

[Brent]