ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Brent you know better than any one. Once a storm gets stronger it will most of the time (Not all the time)take on a more Northern path. Not a straight North but I do think a WNW then NW to be the pattern here. We don't know what she will do but what she is doing right now. They Did not call for her to be a cat 1 either. But she is or will be soon. So it is just a matter or time and timing to what she is going to do.

A deeper, stronger, storm will experience greater steering influence from the mid and upper levels than a weaker system, and this will be especially true if Hanna maintains such robust convection. The mid and upper level (H50 through H25) steering patterns will maintain a mostly northerly component over the system alla ridging aloft over Florida and the Ern Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. The Atlantic ridge is being held in place, aloft, from the combined influence of Hanna and the Eward moving trough axis well north of the tropical cyclone. The southerly flow around the western axis of the Atlantic ridge will eventually begin to exert a greater influence on the storm, however, not until late Wednesday or Thursday based on the guidance I've reviewed.

The GFS has shifted steadily left with the 06Z and 12Z runs, and the UKMET has kept its left "outlier" track per the 12Z output. I'd expect the 12 and 18Z guidance to shift left with a deeper early-period Hanna.

- Jay

That's just great new for the east Coast of FL

So what you are saying is that a deeper system is likely to track more west (and not poleward) this time, contrary to convection?

[Nimbus]

Hanna is a deeper system than she was forecast to be at this time and that does effect the steering.

Recon is finding lower pressures further south and west which will change the initialization of the models.

Since this morning I think we have been playing catch up with a changing forecast. Hanna was just a struggling exposed mess till recently. People in Florida will not get excited unless the media hypes the storm. Without a specific landfall estimate its probably better to just leave the track off shore till the models catch up.

Hanna could really bomb out once conditions start to improve so we don't want to cry wolf on the wrong area now.

[Blown Away]

Seems no matter what happens with Hanna, center relocation, moving WSW faster, and intensity increase the NHC sticks with their Savannah landfall. They must have a good handle on the track.

[cpdaman]

storm appears to still be kept in "relative check"

watch this gustav outflow band just over the right side of hanna, should this abate conditions may become more conductive for quicker strengthening

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-ir2.html

based on loop this should be present for at least 3 more hours and based on it's trajectory upstream it should shift a bit west in a couple hours

[DESTRUCTION5]

Brent you know better than any one. Once a storm gets stronger it will most of the time (Not all the time)take on a more Northern path. Not a straight North but I do think a WNW then NW to be the pattern here. We don't know what she will do but what she is doing right now. They Did not call for her to be a cat 1 either. But she is or will be soon. So it is just a matter or time and timing to what she is going to do.

A deeper, stronger, storm will experience greater steering influence from the mid and upper levels than a weaker system, and this will be especially true if Hanna maintains such robust convection. The mid and upper level (H50 through H25) steering patterns will maintain a mostly northerly component over the system alla ridging aloft over Florida and the Ern Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. The Atlantic ridge is being held in place, aloft, from the combined influence of Hanna and the Eward moving trough axis well north of the tropical cyclone. The southerly flow around the western axis of the Atlantic ridge will eventually begin to exert a greater influence on the storm, however, not until late Wednesday or Thursday based on the guidance I've reviewed.

The GFS has shifted steadily left with the 06Z and 12Z runs, and the UKMET has kept its left "outlier" track per the 12Z output. I'd expect the 12 and 18Z guidance to shift left with a deeper early-period Hanna.

- Jay

Well this is very disconcerning Jay coming from you...another late night coming...LOL

[gatorcane]

well the NHC didn't shift the track much left at the 1pm advisory....but probably won't see anything significant until 5pmEST or later.

now its nail-biting time along FL's east coast to see what new model trends will be and if indeed the west shift starts happening as NEXRAD anticipates couuld.

[fasterdisaster]

Idiots at CNN.com saying Hanna has formed in the 'Caribbean'

[AdamFirst]

Seems no matter what happens with Hanna, center relocation, moving WSW faster, and intensity increase the NHC sticks with their Savannah landfall. They must have a good handle on the track.

Tracks aren't adjusted on the intermediate advisories

[gatorcane]

I still can't believe the ECMWF (Euro) model. It looks like it has nailed this sytem yet again. Go back and look at what is was showing 7+ days ago and you will be amazed how close its track and intensity forecast has been for Hanna -- which called for a large and strong system right where Hanna is at.

[El Nino]

Idiots at CNN.com saying Hanna has formed in the 'Caribbean'

Their image to represent Gustav is the one from Wilma too

[Chacor]

Idiots at CNN.com saying Hanna has formed in the 'Caribbean'

They're not the only ones. CNBC also said "Caribbean".

[Scorpion]

I still can't believe the ECMWF (Euro) model. It looks like it has nailed this sytem yet again. Go back and look at what is was showing 7+ days ago and you will be amazed how close its track and intensity forecast has been for Hanna -- which called for a large and strong system right where Hanna is at.

Yep. Nailed Gustav and Hanna a 7-10 days out. Concerning how it continues to show "Ike" affecting our area as well.

[captain east]

well the NHC didn't shift the track much left at the 1pm advisory....but probably won't see anything significant until 5pmEST or later.

now its nail-biting time along FL's east coast to see what new model trends will be and if indeed the west shift starts happening as NEXRAD anticipates couuld.

Might have to start putting shutters up in the next few days...

[cpdaman]

appearance is slightly poorer in the last two satelite frames

watch for this evening for a possible round 2 of strengthening should that gustav shear band move away from hanna

[bahamaswx]

Idiots at CNN.com saying Hanna has formed in the 'Caribbean'

We like to pretend we're part of the Caribbean here in the Bahamas.

[fci]

Brent you know better than any one. Once a storm gets stronger it will most of the time (Not all the time)take on a more Northern path. Not a straight North but I do think a WNW then NW to be the pattern here. We don't know what she will do but what she is doing right now. They Did not call for her to be a cat 1 either. But she is or will be soon. So it is just a matter or time and timing to what she is going to do.

A deeper, stronger, storm will experience greater steering influence from the mid and upper levels than a weaker system, and this will be especially true if Hanna maintains such robust convection. The mid and upper level (H50 through H25) steering patterns will maintain a mostly northerly component over the system alla ridging aloft over Florida and the Ern Gulf of Mexico through mid-week. The Atlantic ridge is being held in place, aloft, from the combined influence of Hanna and the Eward moving trough axis well north of the tropical cyclone. The southerly flow around the western axis of the Atlantic ridge will eventually begin to exert a greater influence on the storm, however, not until late Wednesday or Thursday based on the guidance I've reviewed.

The GFS has shifted steadily left with the 06Z and 12Z runs, and the UKMET has kept its left "outlier" track per the 12Z output. I'd expect the 12 and 18Z guidance to shift left with a deeper early-period Hanna.

- Jay

Jay:
There is definite complacency here in South Florida since the track has bounced all over the place the past few days and then seemed to settle on a track east of the Bahamas and up towards the SE US coast.
Given what you said above with the storm deepening; is South Florida back in the danger zone?
I know we are on the edge of the cone but with the model consensus pretty set to the north, no one is really paying heed to the edge of the 2/3 error factored cone.

So Il ask the golden question........

[gatorcane]

well the NHC didn't shift the track much left at the 1pm advisory....but probably won't see anything significant until 5pmEST or later.

now its nail-biting time along FL's east coast to see what new model trends will be and if indeed the west shift starts happening as NEXRAD anticipates couuld.

Might have to start putting shutters up in the next few days...

I really hope not, that's the last thing I want to be doing

[Chacor]

Idiots at CNN.com saying Hanna has formed in the 'Caribbean'

They're not the only ones. CNBC also said "Caribbean".

Idiots at CNN.com saying Hanna has formed in the 'Caribbean'

We like to pretend we're part of the Caribbean here in the Bahamas.

The NHC actually includes the Bahamas in its Caribbean waters forecast.

[ronjon]

Luis, the title of this thread should probably be Hurricane Hanna in the SE Bahamas.

[cycloneye]