ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

Looks like IKE is around the corner.

[fci]

Sigh. I was looking at the track, not the intensity. I'm glad all the newbies have appointed themselves as official S2K policemods.

You guys need to hang around a lot longer and grasp what is happening on the board.

A storm with 7 days over open water taking the same approach as other storms historically is not an unreasonable methodology for looking at potential future paths and outcomes. The climatology might be different for this time but the path that has been laid out by the NHC provides some interesting comparisons to previous storms.

And to add to this very good post:
The certainty that the NHC shows in the track is a little unusual and having "soon to be" Ike north of PR in 5 days is pretty extraordinary and quick. There usually are some caveats about uncertainties and not much deviation is shown at least over the next 5 days and for a long way.
Also, this being a HUrricane so early and NOT turning poleward is a concern.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Wrapping up nicely around approx. 18N, 39W.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is this an east coast threat or a Gulf coast? The closest historical tracks include Fran and Hortense, so it would seem like there's going to be a huge recurve in its future.

[JonathanBelles]

Cant we get a break? lol

[apocalypt-flyer]

Is this an east coast threat or a Gulf coast? The closest historical tracks include Fran and Hortense, so it would seem like there's going to be a huge recurve in its future.

That's approximately 7 till 10 days out and too early to say. However it seems that a few models keep this going steadily west into the Florida straights. Still, we'll probably know more in 3 or 4 days I assume.

[Patrick99]

My guess, given the initial position of this relatively far north, is that it will be a recurver, and that NHC track will change. I gotta go with climatology here too......from that position they don't usually take a straight shot through Florida into the Gulf....

[fasterdisaster]

Why did this disappear on the S2K map?

[Enzo Aquarius]

Why did this disappear on the S2K map?

It's back up now, I think it was being updated.

[perk]

My guess, given the initial position of this relatively far north, is that it will be a recurver, and that NHC track will change. I gotta go with climatology here too......from that position they don't usually take a straight shot through Florida into the Gulf....

Recurve where?

[Patrick99]

All you S. FL people, don't worry about this or Hanna......we have a protective shield up from Miami to WPB, as you know. The Gulfstream is going to turn both of them north before they get here

That was sarcasm, by the way.

[Patrick99]

My guess, given the initial position of this relatively far north, is that it will be a recurver, and that NHC track will change. I gotta go with climatology here too......from that position they don't usually take a straight shot through Florida into the Gulf....

Recurve where?

If I'm going climo, I'd probably look for a Fran-like track. This is with no analysis of what ridges and troughs may be there 7 days out.....I've just never seen a storm take a straight shot like that in my lifetime. I'm thinking it recurves, maybe on a weakness left from Hanna.

[El Nino]

We all know what climatology is, but just in case :

[HURAKAN]

It's extremely early to say if it will recurve or not. Stay tuned. Gustav first, then Hanna, and then this!

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102951

Forecast challenge for TD 9.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

My guess, given the initial position of this relatively far north, is that it will be a recurver, and that NHC track will change. I gotta go with climatology here too......from that position they don't usually take a straight shot through Florida into the Gulf....

Recurve where?

If I'm going climo, I'd probably look for a Fran-like track. This is with no analysis of what ridges and troughs may be there 7 days out.....I've just never seen a storm take a straight shot like that in my lifetime. I'm thinking it recurves, maybe on a weakness left from Hanna.

As of now Hanna will be inland sometime Friday then accelerating north. There will be more than enough time for the weakness to be replaced by a ridge. But as you say there is no telling when or where a trough might form to turn this storm, or might just turn it nw for a day or two then another strong high could build back in and resume its west track. Many days to watch and surely models will flip flop back and forth till then.

[ConvergenceZone]

Although it's likely to recurve based on that climatology map you just posted, you never never know for sure....Although it's true that most tropical storms in this area recurve out to sea...

[WindRunner]

Is this an east coast threat or a Gulf coast? The closest historical tracks include Fran and Hortense, so it would seem like there's going to be a huge recurve in its future.

The best matches that I got back were Karen of 1995, Cesar of 1990, and Gloria and Felix of 1985. Probably not a Gulf threat, but we will have to see how the ridge is playing come this time next week.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC said that they were waiting for the convection to persist to upgrade TD #9 to Ike, I think we have Ike.

[captain east]

The NHC said that they were waiting for the convection to persist to upgrade TD #9 to Ike, I think we have Ike.

Jeez O Man! That thing is beautiful!