ATL: IKE Discussion

[Just Joshing You]

Maybe this is the storm that the Euro was picking up to make landfall in the same general area as Gustav. Except the Euro and the other models were saying Cat 5 landfall lol.

[perk]

This is why that track looks disturbing to me and any Floridian with sanity:

It is not sane to compare every storm to Andrew. Nor is it rational to say that someone is not sane that does not think it reminds them of Andrew. I disagree so I must be insane. Total hogwash. I am staring to think that either you guys are 15 and overly dramatic, or just fire stokers.

Well stated, it is way to early to compare TD9 to Andrew and rest assured we will see many more comparisons in the upcoming week on a storm over a thousand miles away from any US coastline.

[Portastorm]

This may have been posted already and if it has, sorry for clogging the bandwith ... but the 0z Euro takes TD9 through the Florida straights in 5-6 days with strong ridging over the Gulf states.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

[bahamaswx]

Wow, real fast mover there.

[captain east]

This could be a train on Florida, first Hanna could hit then TD 9 ( maybe Ike ), then maybe Invest 99 , and then what ever else mother nature has to offer...

[Wannabewxman79]

Good God, not everything is going to hit Florida so just calm down.

[fasterdisaster]

This may have been posted already and if it has, sorry for clogging the bandwith ... but the 0z Euro takes TD9 through the Florida straights in 5-6 days with strong ridging over the Gulf states.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

Um no, that's Hanna.

[Ivanhater]

This may have been posted already and if it has, sorry for clogging the bandwith ... but the 0z Euro takes TD9 through the Florida straights in 5-6 days with strong ridging over the Gulf states.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

Um no, that's Hanna.

Nope...thats Ike

[GoneBabyGone]

I'd really appreciate it if this thing didn't move towards the gulf like the initial tracks have it doing.

Love,
Louisiana

[fasterdisaster]

I'd really appreciate it if this thing didn't move towards the gulf like the initial tracks have it doing.

Love,
Louisiana

[apocalypt-flyer]

This may have been posted already and if it has, sorry for clogging the bandwith ... but the 0z Euro takes TD9 through the Florida straights in 5-6 days with strong ridging over the Gulf states.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

Um no, that's Hanna.

No, he's quite right, the animation has Hanna moving into the Carolinas and THEN Ike at 168h (read: VERY FAR OUT) moving into the Florida straights/Northern Cuba.

But that's seven days out.

[johngaltfla]

Sigh. I was looking at the track, not the intensity. I'm glad all the newbies have appointed themselves as official S2K policemods.

You guys need to hang around a lot longer and grasp what is happening on the board.

A storm with 7 days over open water taking the same approach as other storms historically is not an unreasonable methodology for looking at potential future paths and outcomes. The climatology might be different for this time but the path that has been laid out by the NHC provides some interesting comparisons to previous storms.

[Scorpion]

Wow, it's looking great right now. I think its at least 40 kt.

[fasterdisaster]

This may have been posted already and if it has, sorry for clogging the bandwith ... but the 0z Euro takes TD9 through the Florida straights in 5-6 days with strong ridging over the Gulf states.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

Um no, that's Hanna.

Nope...thats Ike

Are you sure? I see what looks like Ike in the 144 and 168 hour frames but it's going over Cuba? What frame is the one you posted?

[Frank2]

Per the WV loop, it seems TD 9 will have at least a decent chance of a recruve if the timing is just right:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

so, before anyone else compares this to Andrew or any other hurricane, let's see what happens...

On Saturday, someone posted a photo of Hurricane Camille (1969), comparing that to what many thought Gustav would reintensify to, but, as we found out Gustav was not Camille, as much as Camille was not Gustav, so...

[johngaltfla]

Frank, I think it all depends on where and how strong the Bermuda High rebuilds into or over Florida. There will be a weakness once Hanna departs but it does not seem like it is moving fast enough to allow the high pressure to build back in. Let's hope that it does recurve and becomes a fish.

[Portastorm]

Per the WV loop, it seems TD 9 will have at least a decent chance of a recruve if the timing is just right:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

so, before anyone else compares this to Andrew or any other hurricane, let's see what happens...

On Saturday, someone posted a photo of Hurricane Camille (1969), comparing that to what many thought Gustav would reintensify to, but, as we found out Gustav was not Camille, as much as Camille was not Gustav, so...

True Frank, and to be fair ... the Euro appears to be overestimating the strength of ridges as 4-5 days out on Gustav, it had the hurricane hitting Mexico and even south Texas. If we're lucky, Ike-to-be is a fish.

[fci]

This is why that track looks disturbing to me and any Floridian with sanity:

It is not sane to compare every storm to Andrew. Nor is it rational to say that someone is not sane that does not think it reminds them of Andrew. I disagree so I must be insane. Total hogwash. I am staring to think that either you guys are 15 and overly dramatic, or just fire stokers.

I don't find it insane to compare THIS one to Andrew.
People do have the tendency to compare a lot of storms to Andrew but it does provide a point of reference to many.

AS for sanity, I hope you keep yours as you watch Hanna possibly approach your area later this week.
Now, MY sanity is definitely being challanged by Fay, Gustav, Hanna and soon to be Ike.
It is becoming rather repetitive and I am growing tired of it and the fun just does not seem to stop.

See you in the padded room when the men in white coats bring us both there!!

[Cyclenall]

Man, the NHC must be so busy, just two more storms until they are at maximum (like the 2000 or 1995 train). They must really hate this time of year. They are so busy that they haven't released the August summaries yet!

[perk]

Per the WV loop, it seems TD 9 will have at least a decent chance of a recruve if the timing is just right:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

so, before anyone else compares this to Andrew or any other hurricane, let's see what happens...

On Saturday, someone posted a photo of Hurricane Camille (1969), comparing that to what many thought Gustav would reintensify to, but, as we found out Gustav was not Camille, as much as Camille was not Gustav, so...

Check out the NHC discussion, high confidence in the 5 day forecast.