ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

They typically make slight adjustments to track when a center reforms or moves in an unexpected direction. In this case, they will probably start it from a further south point, which will have very slight impact on the track, perhaps a little left in the long ranges, but probably wont make a lot of difference.

[storms in NC]

If the center is further south, I believe that means a more westward track. Please correct me if I am wrong.

No your right.

No not really. As I just wrote they had it dropping down to the south then off to the NW. Remember stronger the storm the more it would go to the North Like NW as they have called for.

[caneman]

I'm all for not creating panic but this is on our doorstep no excuse for Avilia not to have bumped up the winds higher.

its hardly on our doorstep and furthermore its barely moving, if recon finds something earth shattering then nhc will let us know via stds otherwise there is plenty of time for everyone on the se conus to wobble watch this thing[/quote

Really????? Have you checked the 3 day track??? Have you seen the model trends? Have you thought about if Hannah does come in West and South exactly how much time say Central Florida would have to prepare? You are entitled to your opinion. NHC has been very conservative this year and has painfully obvious with this one.

[Chacor]

Latest dropsonde just found 62 kt winds.

[bahamaswx]

70kt FL winds look likely when we get a pass through the NE quad.

[umguy]

OMG CNN just said how great a job the NHC is doing with forecasting where storms are going.

[chadtm80]

OMG CNN just said how great a job the NHC is doing with forecasting where storms are going.

They just said how good NHC did with forcasting Gustav track actually.. nothing more.. and they are 100% correct on that

[Evil Jeremy]

If the center is further south, I believe that means a more westward track. Please correct me if I am wrong.

No your right.

No not really. As I just wrote they had it dropping down to the south then off to the NW. Remember stronger the storm the more it would go to the North Like NW as they have called for.

They had it dropping to the south, but not this far. SE FL is in the 3 day cone, and this is really reminding me of Jeane right now.

[hial2]

OMG CNN just said how great a job the NHC is doing with forecasting where storms are going.

I think NHC did a GREAT job with Gustav.

[Chacor]

OMG CNN just said how great a job the NHC is doing with forecasting where storms are going.

Which they are. They nailed Gustav.

[bahamaswx]

its hardly on our doorstep and furthermore its barely moving, if recon finds something earth shattering then nhc will let us know via stds otherwise there is plenty of time for everyone on the se conus to wobble watch this thing

This is not out to sea, miles from anywhere. This is on someone's doorstep, just not yours.

[storms in NC]

OMG CNN just said how great a job the NHC is doing with forecasting where storms are going.

They are doing a good job.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC has been doing an excellent job. Hanna has been extremely complicated and so far they are doing to the best of their abilities.

[BigA]

Hanna, if not a hurricane, is mighty close. 62kt surface winds, with 69kt sustained winds a few hundred feet up I am eager to see the pass on the northeast quadrant.

[umguy]

OMG CNN just said how great a job the NHC is doing with forecasting where storms are going.

They are doing a good job.

So they were implying that they have the course of Hanna down. Which I totally disagree with.

[cpdaman]

its hardly on our doorstep and furthermore its barely moving, if recon finds something earth shattering then nhc will let us know via stds otherwise there is plenty of time for everyone on the se conus to wobble watch this thing

This is not out to sea, miles from anywhere. This is on someone's doorstep, just not yours.

i have to commend you on the jump you had on this thing's strength last nite (which i picked up on) they did fumble this for turks and caicos, there is a border line cat 1 on top of them, and it was listed as a 50 mph tropical storm last nite. now i believe they will do a great job, from HERE on out.

also latest infared trends show convection waning from high N shear, lets hope this does not abate, although there are signs it may shift a bit away from storm (the high shear streak)

[Evil Jeremy]

I think we will get a special advisory at 2 PM, rather that the usual intermediate advisory. Unfortunally, the 12z runs might not be completely accurate, as they are being started in the wrong place if recon is correct.

[superfly]

OMG CNN just said how great a job the NHC is doing with forecasting where storms are going.

[Blown Away]

If the center is further south, I believe that means a more westward track. Please correct me if I am wrong.

No your right.

No not really. As I just wrote they had it dropping down to the south then off to the NW. Remember stronger the storm the more it would go to the North Like NW as they have called for.

Assuming this ridge building W is as strong as they are predicting, if the track dips further S or SW than expected this gives the ridge more time to build a little further W as Hanna gains latitude, thus the landfall point would be farther S.

[deltadog03]

The best part about Hanna....You hae one of if not the best forecasters on the job!!!