ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Special advisory soon. Expect, maybe, a change in the track.

[cpdaman]

I'm all for not creating panic but this is on our doorstep no excuse for Avilia not to have bumped up the winds higher.

\

yup, Especially with mb reading available from turks and caicos (well south of center) all nite.
all eyes were on gustav, while a sleeping monster lurks in the bahamas

[gatorcane]

well if that is any eye its moving SW or maybe hints of SSW...to me...

and well south of the NHC forecast points (just superimpose them on this image):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

You know something, maybe the models had it right days ago with a SW dive into Cuba?

[Grease Monkey]

Special advisory soon. Expect, maybe, a change in the track.

So the center looks further north then we thought (based on the illustration above)?

[captain east]

well if that is any eye its moving SW or maybe hints of SSW...to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

That means it's currently following the UKMET which was an outlier that made landfall on SE FL...

[cpdaman]

also 985.6 recon pressure was found in 36 knot NNE winds

center is further east by a tad of the lowest pressure (found so far) co-ordinates

[HURAKAN]

So the center looks further north then we thought (based on the illustration above)?

Further south. The TS symbol is the 11 AM advisory, the plane is the real center.

[cpdaman]

Special advisory soon. Expect, maybe, a change in the track.

opposite, NHC was too far north w/ their estimates all nite long, recon is confirming that with lowest pressures near 22.8 N (well south of that TS symbol on map)

[gatorcane]

So the center looks further north then we thought (based on the illustration above)?

Further south. The TS symbol is the 11 AM advisory, the plane is the real center.

There would be some implications to the extended track if this new center found farther south verifies. Recall I said to watch for this to happen earlier this morning.

and earlier this morning, then early morning, then crack of dawn early

[jlauderdal]

I'm all for not creating panic but this is on our doorstep no excuse for Avilia not to have bumped up the winds higher.

its hardly on our doorstep and furthermore its barely moving, if recon finds something earth shattering then nhc will let us know via stds otherwise there is plenty of time for everyone on the se conus to wobble watch this thing

[Blown Away]

Special advisory soon. Expect, maybe, a change in the track.

What kind of change in track are you expecting?

[storms in NC]

gatercane I don't see a SW or SSW movment. But who am I? No one

[Evil Jeremy]

If the center is further south, I believe that means a more westward track. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[gatorcane]

well if its farther south and verifies I see no reason to nudge the track west again in the short-term and extended ranges.

BTW have you noticed its following the ECMWF model pretty closely from what it showed a week ago on what would happen with Hanna? It even showed the SW dive near to Cuba before bending WNW into Southern Florida.

[Frank2]

It makes sense that the center would be down there since it's near the center of the CDO, and per the NHC TCD that also mentions this possibility...

A S or SSW track is yet a sign of another odd-tracking tropical system - the fourth one this season...

The odd tracks of Bertha, Fay, Gustav and now Hanna were discussed on TWC a few days ago - one of the TWC metororologists suggested that perhaps warming is causing very high pressure at northern latitudes, which is blocking low pressure centers at this latitude, and, causing them to track in an unusual fashion until the high pressure weakens...

I must admit, as someone who has been following hurricanes in one way or another since 1960, I've never seen such unusual tracks at this time of the season - odd tracks are normally seen in October and November, but, never in August (now September)...

The poor abused Earth is functioning like a damaged air conditioner - it works, but, not the way it was designed to...

Frank

[captain east]

If the center is further south, I believe that means a more westward track. Please correct me if I am wrong.

No your right.

[storms in NC]

Now NHC called for a drop to the south in their track then they had it going NW after that.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I wouldn't expect this to change the track. Even though the center may be further south, it is not further west. Therefore, the turn north would happen in the same location only south. If forward speed were to increase that would make a big difference.

[Myersgirl]

Look at the last loop of the water vapor. Appears to show the center of circulation at about 22.5 and 71.3 to me.

Looks like an extension of where the circulation looked to be this morning on wv loophttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

based on the reliable reports here

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

the storm is moving SOUTH, slowly sinking south. SSW to be exact. who knows what direction NHC may decide to go with given they have not had an accurate center in 10 hours, but given the obs above and satelite presentation the movement is clear