ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

quote="ROCK"]

quote="Evac3"Oh goodness. Dr. Lyons just said it's starting to move west. How long is this gonna go west??

Sure looks like it. Wow! Is old Gus wanting to stay over water a bit longer? This may not be good at all for TX


I wouldn't go that far. Might increase chance we'll see some meaningful rain in HOU area tonight and tomorrow. If it follows forecast path, I think HOU stays pretty dry. 6Z GFDL shows massive floods near TXK (near 40 cm (~16 inches), while HOU stays under 1 cm of rain next 5 days.

so if Gus hugs the coast for say another 50 miles in which it opens up some and continues west.....you could possbily have a second landfall in Texas.......Well Ed, you know what that means....no more goofy posts about Texas Hurricane Season over in August.....


I know you sweating bullets over there.... [/quote]


I doubt its still a hurricane if it hugs the coast all the way to Sabine Pass, which I don't think it will do anyway.[/quote]


Might be a cat 1 if it did? a lot warmer water over there.....think about...the possibility exists....Ed...

[BigA]

Pressure per extrap is still 953.1, so only a little weakening as it moves onshore

[jenmrk]

My weather bug has reported the highest wind at ESE 50 mph, we have had some pretty heavy rain bands come through since about 5:00 am, the wind was pretty steady all night. I worked all night and this morning has been the worst of it. The tornado warnings have been pretty much constant since about 2:30 am. There are several going right now near my house.

[gboudx]

Are those tornado warnings for actual tornadoes or for extreme winds?

Those are all doppler indicated rotations, no actual tornadoes reported as of this minute.

Not "all". Local news reporting some of these tornadoes are getting the info from trained storm spotters.

[jasons2k]

Watching WDSU from NOLA and so far the city looks pretty good. I'm very very glad we (apparently) don't have Katrina II on our hands. I hope all you over in the rest of the state fare just as well. Looks like one huge flood later this week though.

Here is a radar shot:


Shot at 2008-09-01

[Evac3]

I don't think this is going to wander westward into Galveston or something. It's probably just a wobble westward. NHC wouldn't botch a forecast that badly.

Humberto

[r_u_stuck2]

Are those tornado warnings for actual tornadoes or for extreme winds?

Those are all doppler indicated rotations, no actual tornadoes reported as of this minute.

Not "all". Local news reporting some of these tornadoes are getting the info from trained storm spotters.

Not according to our local TV weatherman. He just stated none have been spotted.

[Chacor]

I don't think this is going to wander westward into Galveston or something. It's probably just a wobble westward. NHC wouldn't botch a forecast that badly.

Humberto

They didn't mess up its track. Intensity forecasting is more difficult than track forecasting.

[Stephanie]

HURAKAN - I'm glad that your aunt's power came back on and that you did hear from her.

[O Town]

Ahm that radar shot is taking moons to load Jason, and I have a fast computer.
Maybe downsize that sucker.

[bob rulz]

I don't think this is going to wander westward into Galveston or something. It's probably just a wobble westward. NHC wouldn't botch a forecast that badly.

Humberto

They didn't mess up its track. Intensity forecasting is more difficult than track forecasting.

As evidenced by the fact that this was forecast to become a monstrous cat 5 over the Loop Current, yet the track forecast was almost dead on several days out.

[tolakram]

[gboudx]

Not according to our local TV weatherman. He just stated none have been spotted.

I'm not gonna fight with you over this, but I have heard very definitively on WDSU out of New Orleans of some confirmed tornado spottings by trained spotters. So unless the pro-met there is lying, then there have been some confirmed tornadoes. Can't vouch for you in Fla. Local is as Local does I guess.

[tolakram]

[MGC]

Another beautiful morning here on the MGC.....

Winds are pretty brisk out of the ESE here. Currently raining pretty good. Power is still up but has flickered a couple of times.

Everyone stay safe......MGC

[r_u_stuck2]

Not according to our local TV weatherman. He just stated none have been spotted.

I'm not gonna fight with you over this, but I have heard very definitively on WDSU out of New Orleans of some confirmed tornado spottings by trained spotters. So unless the pro-met there is lying, then there have been some confirmed tornadoes. Can't vouch for you in Fla. Local is as Local does I guess.

Well, I am here in Pensacola listening to the local weatherman. He just stated again that all the tornado watches are coming from Mobile Weather center based on doppler. He just stated again, no tornadoes have been confirmed, but there has been a report of some hail.

[funster]

Army Corps of Engineers sound very confident considering Gustav not even on shore yet - but it would be great if they are correct.

[jenmrk]

To clear the tornado thing up,

Ch 5 out of Mobile did say they there were NO confirmed touch downs, that it would be decided later for what ever that is worth. There are storm cells moving about 60 mph. They just said once more POSSIBLE tornados, no confirmed damage.

[KWT]

tolakram, yep you can see on your trakcing map the bend to the WNW however I think with the radar link you've brought up shows its probably back to a more NW motion, landfall still probably an hour away and the circulation may stay just far enough offshore not to graze land has it goes, who knows?!

edit, look at the way the eye bends around the land, thats pretty interesting!

[jasons2k]

Army Corps of Engineers sound very confident considering Gustav not even on shore yet - but it would be great if they are correct.

Yeah, so far, so good, but it's still too early to celebrate. The major surge push is just now coming into the NOLA area. The next few hours will be critical.