ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Evac3]

Oh goodness. Dr. Lyons just said it's starting to move west. How long is this gonna go west??

Sure looks like it. Wow! Is old Gus wanting to stay over water a bit longer? This may not be good at all for TX

Well that's comforting. Pros? Opinions?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh goodness. Dr. Lyons just said it's starting to move west. How long is this gonna go west??

Sure looks like it. Wow! Is old Gus wanting to stay over water a bit longer? This may not be good at all for TX

I wouldn't go that far. Might increase chance we'll see some meaningful rain in HOU area tonight and tomorrow. If it follows forecast path, I think HOU stays pretty dry. 6Z GFDL shows massive floods near TXK (near 40 cm (~16 inches), while HOU stays under 1 cm of rain next 5 days.

[BigA]

Latest radar shows especiall heavy rainfall on the northside of the eye. Strongest winds are problably there.

[jenmrk]

I am curious about something, I am not sure if this is the right forum to ask this, one of the models last early this am showed Gustav going back into the Gulf after a west turn into Texas, is there anything to indicate this could happen? At what point do the models no longer run for a storm?

Also, my prayers go out to those of you who are directly affected.

[bob rulz]

Hey Hurakan.

So pleased to hear you're aunt is ok and I hope her house is in one piece! Cubans are pretty efficient at getting the power back on!

Thanks. Furthermore, no one died. Cuba has one of the most efficient programs for evacuations of any third-world country. Of course, communism helps in this case. The government says move, and you better move. But still, a monster hurricane devastated the Isle of Youth and eastern Pinar del Río and no one died.

No one that we know of yet, although if no fatality reports haven't come in yet there likely weren't any.

Indeed their centralized, communist government is very efficient in evacuating people.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, if Gustav keeps on WNW path, it can follow LA coastline and stay at least partly feet wet to Marsh Island.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The number of tornado warnings around Pensacola right now is quite impressive. It seems like there is at least 5 of them going on right now!

[ROCK]

Oh goodness. Dr. Lyons just said it's starting to move west. How long is this gonna go west??

Sure looks like it. Wow! Is old Gus wanting to stay over water a bit longer? This may not be good at all for TX

I wouldn't go that far. Might increase chance we'll see some meaningful rain in HOU area tonight and tomorrow. If it follows forecast path, I think HOU stays pretty dry. 6Z GFDL shows massive floods near TXK (near 40 cm (~16 inches), while HOU stays under 1 cm of rain next 5 days.

so if Gus hugs the coast for say another 50 miles in which it opens up some and continues west.....you could possbily have a second landfall in Texas.......Well Ed, you know what that means....no more goofy posts about Texas Hurricane Season over in August.....


I know you sweating bullets over there....

[Ed Mahmoud]

The number of tornado warnings around Pensacola right now is quite impressive. It seems like there is at least 5 of them going on right now!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
820 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COVINGTON...
CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DIAMONDHEAD...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 817 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
DIAMONDHEAD...OR NEAR WAVELAND...MOVING WEST AT 83 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STENNIS SPACE CENTER BY 825 AM CDT...
PEARL RIVER BY 830 AM CDT...
ABITA SPRINGS...COVINGTON AND 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE BY
845 AM CDT...

[HURAKAN]

[physicx07]

The number of tornado warnings around Pensacola right now is quite impressive. It seems like there is at least 5 of them going on right now!

Earlier there were about 7 or 8 (they were so close together it was hard to count) radar detected TVS within 20 or so miles of each other. Amazing indeed.

[CrazyC83]

Are those tornado warnings for actual tornadoes or for extreme winds?

[gboudx]

Are those tornado warnings for actual tornadoes or for extreme winds?

Some are reported by trained storm spotters.

[crazycajuncane]

Sure looks like it. Wow! Is old Gus wanting to stay over water a bit longer? This may not be good at all for TX

I wouldn't go that far. Might increase chance we'll see some meaningful rain in HOU area tonight and tomorrow. If it follows forecast path, I think HOU stays pretty dry. 6Z GFDL shows massive floods near TXK (near 40 cm (~16 inches), while HOU stays under 1 cm of rain next 5 days.

so if Gus hugs the coast for say another 50 miles in which it opens up some and continues west.....you could possbily have a second landfall in Texas.......Well Ed, you know what that means....no more goofy posts about Texas Hurricane Season over in August.....


I know you sweating bullets over there....

It's right on the coast. You can see the eye on the local radars here. http://www.katc.com

There was some talk of the storm jogging 20-30 miles west last night and this morning. No big surprise here. We're getting ready for the outer rain bands. This thing is not supposed to ride the coast to Texas. If it does (crazier thing have happened) at least be thankful it's a Cat 2 and not a Cat 5.

[Ed Mahmoud]

quote="Evac3"Oh goodness. Dr. Lyons just said it's starting to move west. How long is this gonna go west??

Sure looks like it. Wow! Is old Gus wanting to stay over water a bit longer? This may not be good at all for TX


I wouldn't go that far. Might increase chance we'll see some meaningful rain in HOU area tonight and tomorrow. If it follows forecast path, I think HOU stays pretty dry. 6Z GFDL shows massive floods near TXK (near 40 cm (~16 inches), while HOU stays under 1 cm of rain next 5 days.

so if Gus hugs the coast for say another 50 miles in which it opens up some and continues west.....you could possbily have a second landfall in Texas.......Well Ed, you know what that means....no more goofy posts about Texas Hurricane Season over in August.....


I know you sweating bullets over there....

I doubt its still a hurricane if it hugs the coast all the way to Sabine Pass, which I don't think it will do anyway.

[KWT]

Yep there is loads of tornado warnings still out, certainly is a prolific make of tornadoes it seems.

Circulation still tracking offshore, hugging the coast and soon the coast bends back a little as well.

[Evac3]

Say it does hug the coast all the way to Texas, as the east side of it would pass by Orange County, would we have the same threat of tornadoes as they are having right now?

[r_u_stuck2]

Are those tornado warnings for actual tornadoes or for extreme winds?

Those are all doppler indicated rotations, no actual tornadoes reported as of this minute.

[ROCK]

quote="Ed Mahmoud"]

Sure looks like it. Wow! Is old Gus wanting to stay over water a bit longer? This may not be good at all for TX

I wouldn't go that far. Might increase chance we'll see some meaningful rain in HOU area tonight and tomorrow. If it follows forecast path, I think HOU stays pretty dry. 6Z GFDL shows massive floods near TXK (near 40 cm (~16 inches), while HOU stays under 1 cm of rain next 5 days.

so if Gus hugs the coast for say another 50 miles in which it opens up some and continues west.....you could possbily have a second landfall in Texas.......Well Ed, you know what that means....no more goofy posts about Texas Hurricane Season over in August.....


I know you sweating bullets over there.... [/quote]

It's right on the coast. You can see the eye on the local radars here. http://www.katc.com

There was some talk of the storm jogging 20-30 miles west last night and this morning. No big surprise here. We're getting ready for the outer rain bands. This thing is not supposed to ride the coast to Texas. If it does (crazier thing have happened) at least be thankful it's a Cat 2 and not a Cat 5.[/quote]


yeah highly doubt it will ug the coast...just needed to remind Ed. ...

What eye? The COC is partially on land.....the entire COC needs to be inland before you call it an official landfall

[funster]

I don't think this is going to wander westward into Galveston or something. It's probably just a wobble westward. NHC wouldn't botch a forecast that badly.