ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

DESTRUCTION5 · #681 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:01 am

06Z GFDL Strikes Jax...

06Z HWRF SC Strike....

Neither far from the FL Coast

KWT · #682 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:02 am

Wow GFDL really ramps this system up and given the presentation now its quite possible, Prediciting Hanna gets close to the current strength of Gustav :eek:

#683 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:09 am

UKMET starting to come in line with the other models, just as I said yesterday.

:wink:

caneman · #684 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:10 am

Trader Ron wrote:UKMET starting to come in line with the other models, just as I said yesterday.

Huh?. Is that a joke? Other models are shifting left like the UKMET

#685 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:11 am

caneman wrote:Landfall Jacksonville 96 hours
06Z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06Z GFDL has Hanna as a Major cane in Jacksonville. Fortunately the odds are very low for a Jacksonville/Savannah hurricane. I expect S/Central FL or N.C. when this is all over.

#686 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:12 am

caneman wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:UKMET starting to come in line with the other models, just as I said yesterday.

Huh?. Is that a joke? Other models are shifting left like the UKMET

you have to watch those west coast hurricane geeks, notice rons wink, he knows ukmet nows goes sw to castro

#687 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:13 am

Trader Ron wrote:UKMET starting to come in line with the other models, just as I said yesterday.

track coming west as i said around 4 yesterday, nhc is just behind my curve by about 18 hours, they will get it today

#688 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:15 am

I doubt SFL landfall at this point,but its going to get mighty close.. Ala David in 1979 (I was 1 yrs old then)

apocalypt-flyer · #689 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:17 am

Blown_away wrote:
caneman wrote:Landfall Jacksonville 96 hours
06Z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06Z GFDL has Hanna as a Major cane in Jacksonville. Fortunately the odds are very low for a Jacksonville/Savannah hurricane. I expect S/Central FL or N.C. when this is all over.

The odds might be low because Georgia's coastline is only 70 miles long but given the current models they are definately not out of the woods and should watch this system.

caneman · #690 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:18 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:UKMET starting to come in line with the other models, just as I said yesterday.

track coming west as i said around 4 yesterday, nhc is just behind my curve by about 18 hours, they will get it today

I'm with ya. Looks to have sunk South some. Think Recon may have a little surprise here shortly. Watch out Forida. Thats all I'm sayin......

#691 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:20 am

caneman wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:UKMET starting to come in line with the other models, just as I said yesterday.

Huh?. Is that a joke? Other models are shifting left like the UKMET

Huh? The UKMET was South through the Fl straits yesterday. Today it's inland over Lake O.

I also mentioned on SATURDAY that the GFDL and HWRF showed Hanna offshore Florida in 120 hrs.

KWT · #692 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:20 am

Well the models are slowly trending westward however the models are very well agreed on a NW turn so we shall have to wait and see what happens, the further west it gets now the less time it has to do anything.

Some models suggesting this starts to pull a cyclonic loop, thats certainly looking possible.

caneman · #693 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:22 am

Trader Ron wrote:
caneman wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:UKMET starting to come in line with the other models, just as I said yesterday.

Huh?. Is that a joke? Other models are shifting left like the UKMET

Huh? The UKMET was South through the Fl straits yesterday. Today it's inland over Lake O.

I also mentioned on SATURDAY that the GFDL and HWRF showed Hanna offshore Florida in 120 hrs.

GFDL is now significantly left with landfall in Jax. Models have been trending left so far UKMET/Euro performing best. Others coming in line.

#694 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:23 am

Did the latest Nogaps go way S through the Keys?

DESTRUCTION5 · #695 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:25 am

Blown_away wrote:Did the latest Nogaps go way S through the Keys?

Good question...I have not seen the 0z EURO either..the night shift has slakers...LOL

#696 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:29 am

The latest EURO has it making landfall in NC. TWO day's ago it was whacking South Florida.

:wink:

KWT · #697 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:31 am

Well the thing to note is a lot of the models do really like Hanna's chances and strengthen it, GFDL takes it pretty close to major status! :eek:

#698 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:36 am

Trader Ron wrote:The latest EURO has it making landfall in NC. TWO day's ago it was whacking South Florida.

Can you post the link or graphic?

ronjon · #699 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:37 am

06Z GFDL now has landfall near St Augustine. By 8PM Thursday, the GFDL has a 110 kt hurricane (951 mb) about 50 miles east of the Cape. Trending west since yesterday by most of the models - key is how far west for FL? Stay tuned.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008090106-hanna08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

#700 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:38 am

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090100!!/

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