ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Heading to northern Florida, trailing NW, but with more of a west component rather than north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

[Blown Away]

I don't buy any N Florida landfall so I'm thinking that ridge is building in a little faster and more S those models should go.

[artist]

scrapes the east coast of Fl at 102hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

[Blown Away]

scrapes the east coast of Fl at 102hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Pretty significant shift, IMO.

[boca]

I don't buy any N Florida landfall so I'm thinking that ridge is building in a little faster and more S those models should go.

Do you have access to show the strength of the high building in?

[AJC3]

Heading to northern Florida, trailing NW, but with more of a west component rather than north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

The H85 vortex goes up toward the Charleston area. Still close enough to give a good brush to the central and northern Atlantic coast of Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

scrapes the east coast of Fl at 102hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Pretty significant shift, IMO.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

bout same as 18z

[AtlanticWind]

scrapes the east coast of Fl at 102hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Pretty significant shift, IMO.

Not really , about the same as the 18z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

[Steve H.]

Yep. And with the NOGAPS shifted to Central FL and then to NE GOM and UKmet holding firm, I may get some plywood here in Melbourne tomorrow. I'm not staying up for the ECM run though

[Philly12]

To really appreciate the westward shift compare the 114 hr position from the 06Z run this morning to the 96 hr position from this 00Z run.

[meteorologyman]

I can't tell looking at these models, what intensity do they have Hanna, hitting FL?

[Bane]

gfs has landfall in ne sc.

[Evil Jeremy]

scrapes the east coast of Fl at 102hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Pretty significant shift, IMO.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

bout same as 18z

Actually, while the landfall point is only a little bit west than before, the new run brings Hanna much, much closer to the Florida coastline.

[jaxfladude]

I don't buy any N Florida landfall so I'm thinking that ridge is building in a little faster and more S those models should go.

Got to love that N Florida Shield, but Fay broke that myth: kind of Mod TS. at that...
Hey if the myth of the Tampa Shield is around why not a N Florida one?
Now back to "ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna Model Runs"

[caneman]

06 ukie

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[jlauderdal]

06 ukie

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

back to the sw into cuba solution we saw a few days ago from a few models

[caneman]

Thus far seems to have a good handle on direction based on Sat shot of course we have to wait for visible, Intensity seems right. We'll see. Need to wait for other models of course. When does next Euro come out?

[caneman]

06 GFS. Very close to Florida coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Trader Ron]

06 GFS. Very close to Florida coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Takes it inland and out over Long Island.

[caneman]

Landfall Jacksonville 96 hours
06Z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation