ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[windycity]

Our hanna is a pretty large girl. Her windfield is impressive so i really hope the UK isn't on to something. I have to hand it to them, they have been very consistant.

[Evil Jeremy]

Big west shift with GFDL in landfall point. Now close to the Georgia/South Carolina border:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif

[storms in NC]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the latest models information:

Hanna could pass close to the Florida Coast bringing hurricane force
winds along the East Coast, with a landfall in the Carolinas as a Category 1
Hurricane. I am basing the northward turn off of a cut-off low that may exert
a northward pull. I think this will help the drought in the Carolinas. Though
I think there may have been flooding problems last week when Tropical Storm
Fay's Remnant Low's Rains moved through.


Impacts: Heavy Rains and Strong Tropical Storm Force winds across the Florida
Peninsula (with Hurricane Force winds possible along the East Coast), Tropical
Storm to Hurricane Conditions possible for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina,
with heavy rains moving in. North Carolina might get some drought relief.

Oh that would be so nice. We didn't get the rain like the rest of NC did. Here only got 3/10th of a inch of rain from Rain from Fay. All around us got 3-10 inches.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the latest models information:

Hanna could pass close to the Florida Coast bringing hurricane force
winds along the East Coast, with a landfall in the Carolinas as a Category 1
Hurricane. I am basing the northward turn off of a cut-off low that may exert
a northward pull. I think this will help the drought in the Carolinas. Though
I think there may have been flooding problems last week when Tropical Storm
Fay's Remnant Low's Rains moved through.


Impacts: Heavy Rains and Strong Tropical Storm Force winds across the Florida
Peninsula (with Hurricane Force winds possible along the East Coast), Tropical
Storm to Hurricane Conditions possible for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina,
with heavy rains moving in. North Carolina might get some drought relief.

Oh that would be so nice. We didn't get the rain like the rest of NC did. Here only got 3/10th of a inch of rain from Rain from Fay. All around us got 3-10 inches.

Ouch...yes that is unlucky when the heavy rain misses you...
Also on another note, even if this were to hit florida and cross it
towards the gulf of mexico, the strong cut off low would likely steer
Hanna Northeast towards the Carolinas. So either way (a Florida hit
or Carolina hit without florida hit) means some heavy rain and perhaps
a "hit" for the Carolinas.

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z Nogaps shows a landfall in Central Fla. Does this seem reasonable or is it a bit off?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... p_atlantic

<RICKY>

[AtlanticWind]

Nogaps landfall in Florida , Euro in N. Fla , ukmet in S. fla. Gfs based models seem to be the ones taking the storm north earlier . We shall see.

[jaxfladude]

Not liking those models right now, albeit way too soon for reasonable certainty....

[captain east]

No new updates anyone?

[CourierPR]

To my untrained eyes, Hanna appears to becoming better organized.

[windycity]

The 11 is in, with the expected west shift. Will tomarrow show more of that, i really hope not.

[Emmett_Brown]

Several have mentioned that there is a shift W in the 11pm NHC track... but i really dont see a shift... looks the same as it did at 5pm, but landfalling at the GA/SC border now, with is a little bit to the right. Am i missing something?

[jaxfladude]

The 11 is in, with the expected west shift. Will tomorrow show more of that, i really hope not.

I thought the 11pm track went just a bit north of the 5pm one; and a bit weaker as well just below Hurricane Cat 1 force and the 5pm one had it as a Mid Cat 1 hurricane at landfall.....(both on Aug 31st, 2008.)

[Philly12]

The track was shifted "ever so slightly to the west" at 11pm. It was insignificant.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS coming in, WSW close to Cuba in 18 hours.

[fci]

New GFS coming in, WSW close to Cuba in 18 hours.

You sure?
Cuba in 18 hours??
That's a long way in only 18 hours.
Unless I read your post wrong.

[Emmett_Brown]

New GFS coming in, WSW close to Cuba in 18 hours.

link?

[bahamaswx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[AtlanticWind]

So far Gfs run about the same as the 18z , we shall see

[ExBailbonds]

GFS 10 loop http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Hit refresh to add new frames as they come in.

Edit to correct link

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs run now slightly more west and south at 72 hours