ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[ericinmia]

New Euro swipes south florida, and makes landfall up on the coast near Cape Canaveral...

Where does Hanna go after the Cape?

She is sitting right on top of Cape Canaveral in that image? I am confused at to what you are asking?

[Bocadude85]

Climatologically a deflection North or Northeast makes the most sense.

But, what about that strong ridge that was going to shunt Hanna to the S or SW?
North shear of 35 to 40?

Now, it seems like the models make like the ridge will not block it.
What happened to all the Betsy references?

Unbelieveable inconsistency.[/quote]

that strong ridge has to still be there because the models keep gustav moving off to the nw after landfall or stall him.. im sure its just a case of the models over doing the weakness like they overdid the sw turn.. they are slowly correcting themselves and will probably come around to a general wnw motion after day 5

[johngaltfla]

WOW....Check out this article I just read from accuweather about the potential track of HANNA....Another Gulf Coast Threat??

Tropical Storm Hanna continues to move westward toward the Bahamas and is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. A track slightly to the north of west is expected over the next few days before a building high in the Atlantic forces Hanna to track southwestward toward the Bahamas. By Tuesday, Hanna could be a powerful Category 2 hurricane as it brings heavy rain and damaging winds to the Bahamas. The possibility exists for Hanna to continue westward across the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico where it could remain a powerful hurricane with the potential for a Gulf Coast landfall.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister

Honestly speaking, I do not dismiss this forecast at all.

[Blown Away]

New Euro swipes south florida, and makes landfall up on the coast near Cape Canaveral...

Where does Hanna go after the Cape?

She is sitting right on top of Cape Canaveral in that image? I am confused at to what you are asking?

I was wanting to know if Hanna continued NW into FL after the Cape or was making a turn NE out to sea? Just like I didn't buy a SW track over Cuba I don't buy an Atlantic hurricane landfall from the E from Melbourne Florida N to Savannah, I know it happens but it is very rare. I know Fay technically did that.

[AJC3]

Climatologically a deflection North or Northeast makes the most sense.

But, what about that strong ridge that was going to shunt Hanna to the S or SW?
North shear of 35 to 40?

Now, it seems like the models make like the ridge will not block it.
What happened to all the Betsy references?

Unbelieveable inconsistency.

Strong N-NW shear is still there in a few days...the worst of it is progged just a hair north...but overall I don't see the big issue with inconsistency in the mid-upper pattern.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[fci]

Climatologically a deflection North or Northeast makes the most sense.

But, what about that strong ridge that was going to shunt Hanna to the S or SW?
North shear of 35 to 40?

Now, it seems like the models make like the ridge will not block it.
What happened to all the Betsy references?

Unbelieveable inconsistency.

Strong N-NW shear is still there in a few days...the worst of it is progged just a hair north...but overall I don't see the big issue with inconsistency in the mid-upper pattern.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

The inconsistency I am talking about is in the model consensus.
This time yesterday, the spaghetti models had the turn to the SW towards the Cuban coast (at least in that direction) which would translate to missing the east coast of Florida and probably going through the Florida Straights or The Keys.
24 hours or so later, models seem to indicate a turn before the East Coast of Florida and a threat more to The Carolinas.

Being an amatuer, I read this to be a change in the philosophy of the upper air pattern showing an expected weakness that did not exist 24 hours ago.

The shear from the N-NW was progged to be severe (35-40 mph) and that seems to be unchanged.
But, would a storm head TO the NW with shear coming FROM the NW??

[AJC3]

The inconsistency I am talking about is in the model consensus. This time yesterday, the spaghetti models had the turn to the SW towards the Cuban coast (at least in that direction) which would translate to missing the east coast of Florida and probably going through the Florida Straights or The Keys.
24 hours or so later, models seem to indicate a turn before the East Coast of Florida and a threat more to The Carolinas.

Being an amatuer, I read this to be a change in the philosophy of the upper air pattern showing an expected weakness that did not exist 24 hours ago.

The shear from the N-NW was progged to be severe (35-40 mph) and that seems to be unchanged.
But, would a storm head TO the NW with shear coming FROM the NW??

If the mean steering level layer flow (e.g. centered around H50) was steering it that way...then yes, there's no reason that it could not push it NW into the teeth of a H25 jet. The shear would rip it apart, but that happens sometimes, especially when one TC is trailing another. In fact...that's precisely what I saw in the guidance this morning.

I never had a problem with the models being inconsistent...I had a huge problem with them making meteorological sense (i.e. intensification in the teeth of a strong upper jet.)

[Blown Away]

Cool ECMWF model run, click "Start Animation". Makes a landfall between WPB and the Cape then continues NW or NNW through FL up into Georgia.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... ecmwf.html

[Bocadude85]

Cool ECMWF model run, click "Start Animation". Makes a landfall between WPB and the Cape then continues NW or NNW through FL up into Georgia.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... ecmwf.html

Thanks for posting thats a very cool view of the EURO

[tim_in_ga]

That was pretty cool. Hopefully it brings some more rain into north GA like Fay. We need it!

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS is running, heading WNW for the first 2 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Bocadude85]

looks to be another carolina run

[jlauderdal]

New GFS is running, heading WNW for the first 2 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

looks stalled at days 3 and 4, thats great, then the ridge can build back in and nail us

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS is running, heading WNW for the first 2 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

looks stalled at days 3 and 4, thats great, then the ridge can build back in and nail us

Either that, or making a loop.

[Blown Away]

IMO, if Hanna is not at the FL coast by Friday she misses us to the East.

[Evil Jeremy]

Still stalling in the Bahamas at 96 hours, but I spy with my unprofessional eyes that the ridge is building back in to the north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

[chadtm80]

Models in full agreement

[Blown Away]

Still stalling in the Bahamas at 96 hours, but I spy with my unprofessional eyes that the ridge is building back in to the north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

You must have young kids w/ the "I spy".

[Evil Jeremy]

Models in full agreement

Is that the new GFS or the 12z one?

[KWT]

Models are indeed all over the show, hardly surprising to be honest though as its not an easy steering pattern.