I'm Sounding the 'Claudia' Alert

[Arizwx]

Folks,
This is a nasty girl.I've been tracking her since just after her Yucatan crossing..and eventual 'surprise!' landfall on the E Tejas Coast.
Now it appears she has more 'badness' up her sleeve.Latest KDMX(Laughlin AFB,Tejas) has her tight and hi...riding in from Del Rio and Chihuahua,MX...as a fully formed TD..not good.Her inflow mechanism is excellent and is drawing more moisture into her gut from the W GOMEX per Sat shots and the eveident E Quad of outer banding.She is still 'feeding'..this is not good.Obs from Old Mexico are as hard to come by as a decent '67 427 'Vette.Nada.
All I have to go on is her Sat/IR/Dopper Sig..and some upper air soundings which are frankly..alarming.She has sustained well over 30mph with higher gusts...BUT it's the RA I'm concerned with as well as her well defined convective component.
I doubt many in Tus Metro will understand what this could mean of we get 2-3+in of RA and the burned areas of mt Lemmon 4-6+..its a Moonscape just above Summerhaven.Moreover..our newbie residents are painfully unaware that 1+in of RA could mean FF --Urban Style...Tornadoes w/convection?More RA++thats MAJOR flooding..Urban+winds +mayhem in the Commute hrs.Not good.Plus we have a major Heat Blast today 109+!Not progged.
TUS has not issued an official warning of any kind..lest the systems busts overnight...thats a card I wont play.
This girl Claudia means biz.

[weatherlover427]

This is one system that; last night at least, was progged to bring my area "strong" convection. :o That would be rare for July. I hope it happens though.

[azsnowman]

Well, I KNOW it's not gonna affect us.....it's drier than a popcorn fart here........RH, a WHOPPING 10%, Dewpoint "Phhhhft!" 27°..........Sorry......yes, I've got a very crappy attitude at the moment, I'm sitting here watching my homeland, the promised land, my hunting grounds being reduced to moonscape, the promise of a dry monsoon by the Kahuna came true for me, it is written, it is "DONE!"

Dennis

BTW.......hope you guys get the moisture, SOMEONE in the state needs it.......so much for the medicine men and their prayers, all hope is lost I'm afraid, it's not just me, it's the WHOLE mountain top, talk about some GROUCHY people GEEESH!

[Scott_inVA]

BEST LINE OF THE WEEK...

.....it's drier than a popcorn fart here........

ROFLMAO

Meanwhile this morning here:
9:20AM
Wind 0
Gust 0
RH 86
Temp 78.5
DP 74.0

Pass the popcorn farts to the Mid-Atlantic, Dennis....we can't breath up here is to stinkin' humid.

Scott

[chadtm80]

Check her out.. Looking fantastic.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html




Push Start http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imager ... 40x480.htm


http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imager ... 40x480.htm

[therock1811]

This isn't good for those burned areas... Tucson/Mt. Lemmon area, get ready!!!

[Aslkahuna]

last night in your AZ Grill Thread, I mentioned the possibility of severe thunderstorms, heavy rains and possibly even tornadoes from Claudette's remnants so our thoughts are running in the same channel. I don't know about TUS, but I usually avoid trying to guesstimate thunderstorm rainfall
unless it's going to be really extreme because of the great spatial variations. However, the pattern with Claudette has the makings of a real problem. Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants in August 2000 followed a similar track and we got 1.5 inches of rain in a bit over an hour's time when the main squall band came through so 1-3 inches in the Valleys and 3-6 in the mountains might not be out of the question (TS Gabrielle's remnants from the GOM dumped about 3 inches of rain at my house in August 1995 and a 1990 GOMer was a real dumper in all of AZ). BUT that's not the end of it since once we get on the backside we are then in full fledged deep mature Monsoon flow and that holds its own perils. SE flow squallines are always killers in Sierra Vista-they are to us what the Rimmers are to Tucson. Been busy getting the Devil Chaser ready today.

Steve

[Stephanie]

The picture I saw of her earlier today reminded me of alittle buzzsaw! I guess for you guys it's feast or famine, but I guess you'd take feast right about now!

[Arizwx]

Here inlies the rub.
I have a track of just SSE of TUS Metro...IF that is the track..and She holds her circualtion and she is wet...we have a huge problem.KGUN-9 TV is finally admitting this could be the worst onsalaught in YEARS,,this goes back to 1983 when the Rillito River and the Santa Cruz rivers crested WAYYY above flood stage.
PLUS the convection is a REAL concern..and the dry air out in front with a 111F that hit Davis-Monthan AFB 110F official at the Intl Airport.
TheNE Quad incoming here in NW TUS...VERY difficult to prog.
If we get over juiced...no real problem..as bands form with HVY Showers.
I predict SEV++Wx for an oncoming BLOW of MAJOR proportions...
Take care on the Chase Steve..as I will..she's got teeth.

[Colin]

Arizwx, it is good news that you are getting the rain.......BUT not the expected severe weather and copious amounts of rain..
you guys are dry......but you don't need the amount of rain
in that period of time. Stay safe and please keep us updated.......I expect Flood Watches to be issued tomorrow if the predicted track continues.

[azskyman]

OK...you've sufficiently pumped adrenaline as far north as Bell Road here in Scottsdale...our piece of the Claudette pie is much more uncertain, but the descriptions you banter about are finding me practicing my horizon scans this evening. Let's hope some moisture kicks into needed places in sufficient amount to suppress the fire but not so on the new moonscapes this time.

If there is one component that might come into play it will be Claudette's taste of the heat. If she is overwhelmed by it all and pulls her cryin' eyes through the region in haste...perhaps this onslaught may be convective and spicy, but not prolonged.

116 today again here...and an interesting day to watch tomorrow regardless of the outcome here. The 50% chance of rain for tomorrow night is the highest percentage forecast since mid April...so we, too, could get a piece of the action.

I applaud your watchful eyes and artful play on the potential. I do hope those in Tucson keep an eye on the skies the next 48 hours. Our own driver makes a trip there tomorrow to deliver one of our printings from the plant...and I will remind him of the need to be "sky aware."

[vbhoutex]

Well, I am through with the nasty "Claudie" here and have sent her your way. However, I'm not sure I should admit to pushing her your way now. I do hope she gets to you with enough moisture to do good for all of AZ and not enough to do bad. Believe it or not, the models currently have her moisture returning to the TX panhandle in about a week. Now that is what I call perseverance!!

[Aslkahuna]

at the 00Z U/A maps. H5 and H7 have a closed wind circulation while the 850 has more of a wave (which is what I would expect at this stage in the game). However, the 850mb also has 35kt inflow into the back of the wave with 850 dews as high as 20C+. Now I'm just below that level and with that much speed convergence topped by rotation above, things could get really interesting (spelled N-A-S-T-Y). The Devil Chaser is ready and the gear is standing by (not going to leave that value of equipment sitting in the van-too much temptation for Vicente's people should they chance to come around). It'll take about 10 minutes to get the gear and the dog in the van and off to the chase once I see the action start to pop. Target areas right now would be the Sulphur Springs Valley, up around Willcox and between Benson and Whetstone shifting south and west as need be.

Steve

[azsnowman]

You guys stay safe, looks like we're gonna miss out on the chance for rain as I stated before this latest NAFD came out.......remember me would ya "LOL!"

MOST ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG...SOUTH...AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HEBER TO
FLAGSTAFF TO GRAND CANYON. AS A RESULT...THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL
BRING THE RETURN OF MORE RUN OF THE MILL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
CURRENT PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW. MID SHIFT WILL CONSIDER
WHETHER OR NOT TO RAISE POPS FOR FRIDAY. HOWARD


One of these days we JUST MIGHT get some rain, right now.....the outlook is VERY grim!

Dennis

[Arizwx]

Bullseye!-Very nice shot of 'Claudette''s 88-D /Sat shot sigs right over Tucson Metro.Check the KEMX hyperlinks below.
'Center'is just SE of Downtown Tucson as she slows and spins...most impressive is the NW Quad..the'Banding' is still evident.The ESE section of what was the SE Quad is now firing off Convection...somewhat retarded due to Cloud Deck cover inhibiting sun destabilization.Impressive showers also in Sonora,MX just South of the Nogales US Border.
PWs still showing 1.77in+ with the oinbound 'backside' of Claudia.Thus we are under a Flood Watch...could be upgraded to a FF Warning as the eve wears on...we shall see.She has opened up abit..however,her circ is still intact for the most part.Weak TD?Possible
97F/Dp60/wind ESE 25 G 30 Press 29.62(interesting stats)/Mid Strata/Lt Ra /vis7mi
15:00hrs MST 17JUL03

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kemx.shtml

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tucson/satellit ... st-US.html

[weatherlover427]

My NWS has now added a 20% chance of showers and T-storms for tomorrow and a slight (less than 20%) chance for tonighnt too.

[azskyman]

Well...Tucson gets the prize! Right on Claudette! However, I am taking my focus off of Claudy girl and looking at the moisture and instability to her north and behind her. That is getting my attention tonight out by San Carlos. We shall see what overnight coniditions hold up and then what the heat of the day does tomorrow.

[weatherlover427]

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2003

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN A POSITION TO KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH ACTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. MARINE LAYER STILL HANGING AROUND THE SOUTH COAST AT ABOUT 1700 FEET. EDDY SHOWS NO SIGNS OF GIVING UP AND MESOETA KEEPS IT GOING THRU SAT. IT ALSO SHOWS A RATHER LARGE EDDY CIRCULATION GOING ON TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO ORANGE COUNTY. TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD SOCAL AS SOUTHERN AZ WAS COVERED. REMNANT LOW FROM DECEASED HURRICANE CLAUDETTE WAS NEAR THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BORDER OF AZ AND HEADED THIS WAY. LARGE MCS DEVELOPED FROM IT THIS EVENING. DECENT PVA OUT AHEAD OF IT AND MAY SEND SOME BOOMERS INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI AM. ALSO LARGE AREA OF BOOMERS IN NORTHWEST CENTRAL AZ MOVING SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS POSITION AS EASTERLY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLAUDETTE MOVES WEST AND SOCAL GETS A BRIEF NORTHEAST FLOW...BRINGING THE MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST AZ INTO THE AREA. WATER VAPOR PIX SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS BUT SHOULD BE MORE RAIN AND BOOMERS. VORT MAX MOVES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRI EARLY AM WITH STRONG PVA AT 500 AND 700 MB TO THE COAST. COULD BE A LOT OF ACTION DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. CROSS SECTION SHOWS HIGH RH OVER THE AREA THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN RH SHIFTS NORTH. ALSO SHOWS GOOD CONVERGENCE AT LOWER LEVELS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. FRIDAY THRU FRI NIGHT LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTIVE. MOISTURE FIELD SHIFTS NORTH ON SAT BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT MORE BOOMERS ROAMING AROUND THE AREA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION OR MUCH LESS ACTIVITY WITH ANOTHER SURGE ON TUE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORECAST TO KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA THRU NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER AND HUMIDITY WITH SOME RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGES POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXCEPT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY BRIEF WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

.SAN...NONE.

[M2]

La Chiquita Claudette finally hopped up on the table here
in Phoenix about 15 minutes ago - and it sprinked enough to wet the
pavement - -First rain in months Hope it keeps up throughout the
night but there are not too many echos in the area. It was windy this morning
then calmed down until just recently when the breezes started. It was SO
hot today again - 104F or thereabouts. Sun was out part of the day too.
Now at 10pm - temps are 97F DP=56 RH=26%

The clouds here though today were not the usual stuff we've seen - they
were really ripped apart and jagged on all the edges and looked like nothing
that normally 'grows' on this side of the Rio Grande - Steve, were those
tropical storm system clouds??? What types did you see down that way?
DJ, did you see any unusual clouds/formations a little Abbey Normal for
the desert?

It has stopped already - wonder if Azskyman got any rain up the road...
...or Dennis?...or Josh?

Not even sure that NWS has even declared the Monsoon yet in Phx...

[Aslkahuna]

the monsoon has been declared yet in Phoenix. We had overcast Altostratus with a lower AC/ACCAS deck and some low SC over the peaks. Only light rain here with a total of 0.02in. There are some heavy showers over the Catalinas and the burn area due to orographic lifting and some more rain over Tucson.

Steve