ATL: IKE Discussion
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- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
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- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re:
KWT wrote:Yep not really surprising this one looks good to be a TD very soon, our next true Cape Verde system, don't look at the ECM!
Sorry but I've got to tempt fate...do you have a link for the ECM...I saw a still pic of it on the previous page and it appeared to be in the FL Straights as a significant cane...This far out that would be like saying the Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl this year!!!
SFT
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- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
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- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re:
KWT wrote:http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008083000!!chart.gif
Well, that is just plain nasty...The Euro sure has had it in for FLA the past few days...First Hanna and now this. At 11 days out though I think we are being detoured into the land of make believe. Let's hope it stays that way.
SFT
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- SouthFLTropics
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- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic
Man that is a big disturbance...
"That's no moon! It's a space station!!!"
SFT
"That's no moon! It's a space station!!!"
SFT
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- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Re: Re:
SouthFLTropics wrote:KWT wrote:Yep not really surprising this one looks good to be a TD very soon, our next true Cape Verde system, don't look at the ECM!
Sorry but I've got to tempt fate...do you have a link for the ECM...I saw a still pic of it on the previous page and it appeared to be in the FL Straights as a significant cane...This far out that would be like saying the Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl this year!!!
SFT
I'd say that this has a better shot of becoming a cat 5 than the Dolphins have of winning the Super Bowl.
This continues to look better organized. It generally seems that Cape Verde storms that form this far east are most likely to form from very gradually-intensifying systems. Very few rapid blow-ups, and huge waves half the time seem to fall apart as soon as they hit the water. The East Atlantic is a fickle region.
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- cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic
076
ABNT20 KNHC 301147
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
ABNT20 KNHC 301147
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic=8 AM TWO=TD next day or so
The 12:00 UTC Best track has the pressure down to 1004 mbs.
AL, 97, 2008083012, , BEST, 0, 142N, 255W, 30, 1004, DB,
AL, 97, 2008083012, , BEST, 0, 142N, 255W, 30, 1004, DB,
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- Category 2
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- Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:48 pm
- Location: Florida, Kissimmee/St.CLoud
Re: ATL: Invest 97L in Eastern Atlantic
Good Grief. This Hurricane Season is bringing in both 2004 and 2005 this year for US.
Arthur hits Mexico
Bertha-Bermuda (B hit B)hmmmm
Christobal-Carolinas (C hit C)hmmm
Dolly -Texas
Edouard-Texas
Fay-FLorida (4x's) (F hit F) hmmm
Gustav-possibly Louisiana
Hanna-possibly FL once again.
Ike- as mentioned above what could be Ike has models heading for FL but that could definately change.
Arthur hits Mexico
Bertha-Bermuda (B hit B)hmmmm
Christobal-Carolinas (C hit C)hmmm
Dolly -Texas
Edouard-Texas
Fay-FLorida (4x's) (F hit F) hmmm
Gustav-possibly Louisiana
Hanna-possibly FL once again.
Ike- as mentioned above what could be Ike has models heading for FL but that could definately change.
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
961
ABNT20 KNHC 301751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
TURK ISLAND.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
ABNT20 KNHC 301751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
TURK ISLAND.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS FROM THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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