ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

18Z Nogaps brings a powerful hurricane towards s.fl...many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082918

The 18z Nogaps has landfall in South Florida..

can u send that link please...thanks

[Bocadude85]

18Z Nogaps brings a powerful hurricane towards s.fl...many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082918

The 18z Nogaps has landfall in South Florida..

can u send that link please...thanks

lol yup the link is right above

[Bocadude85]

when will the new Euro be out?

[wzrgirl1]

quote="Vortex"]18Z Nogaps brings a powerful hurricane towards s.fl...many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur.




can u send that link please...thanks[/quote]


lol yup the link is right above[/quote][/quote]

duh thanks

[meteorologyman]

why is it I keep getting this page from the link above???

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[Typhoon_Willie]

It is becauxe they did not renew their web site certificate with such verifcation services like Verisign etc. I have the same proboem with going to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center web page. So if you trust the web page that you are going to then go access it otherwise try another page.

[meteorologyman]

Thanx Typhoon_Willie

I don't like the fact it shows it hitting SW FL then skirting up into central FL, but any ways, long time to watch.

[blp]

I have noticed some subtle changes tonight. Using the PSU site because FSU won't update for me.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

18Z HWRF no longer goes as South as the GFDL and hits Cuba as the 12Z did. It does a small loop and then seems to head towards the Northern Bahamas.

18Z GFDL nog major changes still goes south to Cuba but is now a little further West and towards the end seems to bring it back to the WNW.

It is interesting how every model except the GFS (Which typically shows less of a system on its maps) has this as a strong hurricane. Can't argue against the NHC's thinking but it is hard to ignore the model intensities.

[bahamaswx]

It is interesting how every model except the GFS (Which typically shows less of a system on its maps) has this as a strong hurricane. Can't argue against the NHC's thinking but it is hard to ignore the model intensities.

At the same time it's hard to forecast a very sheared system into a major. She just spat out her LLC, which is moving SSW, and things aren't looking so great for Hanna right now.

[Typhoon_Willie]

No problem Meteorologyman glad to help!

[gatorcane]

0Z GFS running...out to 108 hours:

[meteorologyman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

Looking at this image there appears to be a weakness between the 2 High Pressure, now these steering currents are for Gustav.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

These are steering currents for Hanna and weakness is still there and Gustuv could weaken it further as it pushes NW. from looking at this it could be FL landfaller. Though I admit, I could be wrong.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[gatorcane]

126 hours 500MB. Looks to be moving W or WNW already:

[Bocadude85]

126 hours 500MB. Looks to be moving W or WNW already:

Yup gator is looking like a possible florida landfall in this run

[gatorcane]

138 hours in the central Bahamas approaching the SE Coast of Florida, again, the GFS has shifted more north yet again

[AJC3]

136 hours in the central Bahamas approaching the SE Coast of Florida, again, the GFS has shifted more north yet again

You'd be remiss if you look at the corresponding H20 winds...

[gatorcane]

wow look at that..GFS curves Hanna away from the SE Coast of FL just before hitting the coast. Hanna rides the East Coast of Florida in this run.

This is a dramatic shift from the previous GFS run:

[meteorologyman]

up, down, left, right, swril around, remember at he beginning of season there was that once of uncertainty which went all a cross the atlantic doing loopdy loops. This will certainly be appropriate humor for that.

[Stormcenter]

It is interesting how every model except the GFS (Which typically shows less of a system on its maps) has this as a strong hurricane. Can't argue against the NHC's thinking but it is hard to ignore the model intensities.

At the same time it's hard to forecast a very sheared system into a major. She just spat out her LLC, which is moving SSW, and things aren't looking so great for Hanna right now.

Wonderful news!!!!!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

Hanna much stronger and near the coast of South Carolina after curving away from Florida:

Wow what a big change in the 00 GFS.....