ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[GraysonDave]

Would anyone be willing to guess a reason for the models shifting West? I havent really heard anything mentioned today that would indicate a MORE westward motion. I have, on the other hand, heard the arguments for a more possible NW or NNW motion for a short time which ended up shifting the models a little East this morning. Just curious. I know there has to be a reason, it wasn't just one model that shifted.

I think the talk of more nnw is due to the depth of the trough, not sure if the models had any of that data. We will see, what happens. GFS will be an indicator of location. I dont expect anything too terribly different, but who knows. It should be out, at least to 72 hours or so, if someone knows where to look?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ib/gfs/12/

Look at the very bottom of this list for the ten_m_loop.shtml file. The file gets updated every five minutes or so. Doesn't look like it has started just yet.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ib/gfs/18/

edit: sorry, shoulda used this link for the 18z

[superfly]

Almost no change for GFS from its last run, still central LA landfall.

[dwg71]

GFDL will be out in an hour or so, dont expect any great change either way.

[perk]

Not a Texas storm yet but getting closer. I knew the NHC would not shift the track that much westward until the GDFL comes aboard.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

I did'nt think they would shift it at all, which was the case. The NHC was not going to shift their track on one model run, plus they made it quite clear that they think the GFDL and GFS solutions are more believeable.

[KWT]

Nope if the GFS is the same then general it progs the same conditions and that'll be fed into the GFDL as well.

[ronjon]

Need to wait for the 00Z runs with the upper air data - if there will be any shift we'll see it then. If not, then we can start nailing this track down with more confidence by tomorrow.

[attallaman]

Now that the models have shifted to the west again would it be possible for them to shift back to the east or are they beginning to lock in on a western track for good until Gustav makes landfall?

[Nimbus]

One interesting way the *future* runs may handle the current trough over the gulf is to have it cut off and roll west as a ULL. Two ULL's and a ridge pumping up in the middle should be fairly easy to model in the remaining time before LF at least in my mind.

If that happens the UK MET would probably shift back right some and join the other models.

[Portastorm]

One interesting way the *future* runs may handle the current trough over the gulf is to have it cut off and roll west as a ULL. Two ULL's and a ridge pumping up in the middle should be fairly easy to model in the remaining time before LF at least in my mind.

If that happens the UK MET would probably shift back right some and join the other models.

I don't disagree with you Nimbus but if I understand pro met Jeff Linder's analysis on that scenario, I thought he suggested an ULL might help tug Gus more westward, depending of course on where it cuts off in the Gulf.

[KWT]

Thats probably what some of the more westerly models suggest Portastorm

[perk]

Need to wait for the 00Z runs with the upper air data - if there will be any shift we'll see it then. If not, then we can start nailing this track down with more confidence by tomorrow.

I really hope that is the case, because even though that line does'nt go through Texas it's impossible to make plans for the holiday, because being that close to the track we probably won't be cleared until late in the weekend if that's the case.

[Nimbus]

An ULL rolling west would allow Gustav to move more west in the intermediate term, BUT ULL's that form in the gulf often only retrograde west as far as Texas..

[Portastorm]

Derek just posted in the Tropical Analysis (pro mets Q&A) and said the trough appears to be only in the upper levels and that it is more a shearing feature than a steering one.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Mobile weather discussion:

A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET INVESTIGATING THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPECIAL
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS START AT 06Z TONIGHT.

As a side note, I wouldn't get too uptight until you're in the 72 hour cone.

[PTrackerLA]

Mobile weather discussion:

A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET INVESTIGATING THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPECIAL
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS START AT 06Z TONIGHT.

As a side note, I wouldn't get too uptight until you're in the 72 hour cone.

Which we're in now: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

By this time tomorrow, if the track is relatively unchanged, I'd say we're screwed. No panic yet as there is still plenty of time for track shifts but AT LEAST tropical storm conditions seem likely at this point.

[dwg71]

gfdl still southeast la a shade west

sorry typed soutwest incorrectly

[Agua]

Mobile weather discussion:

A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET INVESTIGATING THE ENVIRONMENT AND SPECIAL
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS START AT 06Z TONIGHT.

As a side note, I wouldn't get too uptight until you're in the 72 hour cone.

Thanks, I was suspicious that was the case due to a vague memory of having to wait around until 2 in the morning back in 2004 / 2005 for the upper sampling data to be fully ingested.

[vaffie]

gfdl still southwest la a shade west

please post details/link

[dwg71]

[HouTXmetro]

gfdl still southwest la a shade west

Do you mean SELA? GFDL has never been SW Louisiana.