ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[rtd2]

My father works for the federal government and they had a conference call with the NHC this morning. Apparently, the NHC is worried about a trough over Florida that could pick up Gustav and shift it east as far as Pensacola. He said that they were saying none of the models are factoring that in and they are very concerned about the uncertainty of the track.

I know things are trending west. What is the possibility of the above happening, of having a substantial shift east?

He also said that contraflow is going to begin on Saturday at 6pm in LA to evacuate lower parishes.

that was mentioned in NHC discussion earlier but I wouldnt think it would get much attention here

[pablolopez26]

I think the models are starting to pick up the influence of that high coming in from the Great Lakes region.

I dont like this.

[HouTXmetro]

What A difference 12 hours make. Last night there were no models in Texas, today that has changed. Tonight will probably be all back into Louisiana. I have noticed a W shift of the models in the day time and East shift at night. Can anyone explain?

[PTrackerLA]

Models are starting to like SE Texas, interesting changes. Yesterday evening we experienced a similar shift, only to shift way east this morning, and now back westward again. Who knows now?

[mvtrucking]

Models are starting to like SE Texas, interesting changes. Yesterday evening we experienced a similar shift, only to shift way east this morning, and now back westward again. Who knows now?

I wouldn't be at all surprised if they bounce back & forth for at least a couple more runs..

[dwg71]

The nogaps and Ukmet have been on texas a few days now. They have shifted around, back and forth. The model consensous may or may not change, but imo its been Central LA, for the better part of two days.

[MJA]

My father works for the federal government and they had a conference call with the NHC this morning. Apparently, the NHC is worried about a trough over Florida that could pick up Gustav and shift it east as far as Pensacola. He said that they were saying none of the models are factoring that in and they are very concerned about the uncertainty of the track.

I know things are trending west. What is the possibility of the above happening, of having a substantial shift east?

He also said that contraflow is going to begin on Saturday at 6pm in LA to evacuate lower parishes.

that was mentioned in NHC discussion earlier but I wouldnt think it would get much attention here

Yeah, this site should be storms2TX.org. The models go east - the models stink. The models go west, the models are dead on accurate. A bunch of griping and complaining from everybody. And why the need to justify everything? If you believe it's going to TX, fine. You don't have to convince everybody.

[Wx_Warrior]

Same here...If you think they are "locked in" 1100+ miles out....well, nevermind.

[ronjon]

The models will start to come into better agreement with the Gulf IV jet upper air data from today's mission. This data will be input into tonites 00Z model guidance - should be able to narrow it down by tomorrow to a 50-100 mile wide path.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The one model that has been pretty consistent, withing about 100 miles or so of New Orleans on landfall for 7 or 8 runs now, is the GFDL. That consistency might mean something. If it starts wild swings, then I'll get concerned.

[Weatherfreak000]

My father works for the federal government and they had a conference call with the NHC this morning. Apparently, the NHC is worried about a trough over Florida that could pick up Gustav and shift it east as far as Pensacola. He said that they were saying none of the models are factoring that in and they are very concerned about the uncertainty of the track.

I know things are trending west. What is the possibility of the above happening, of having a substantial shift east?

He also said that contraflow is going to begin on Saturday at 6pm in LA to evacuate lower parishes.

that was mentioned in NHC discussion earlier but I wouldnt think it would get much attention here

Yeah, this site should be storms2TX.org. The models go east - the models stink. The models go west, the models are dead on accurate. A bunch of griping and complaining from everybody. And why the need to justify everything? If you believe it's going to TX, fine. You don't have to convince everybody.

Lol, a little harshly said but definitely holds some truth.


Remember the 00Z models are typically the most accurate, the storm will determine it's own destiny as this point because the models are too far out.

[BigB0882]

Well that's it, it is officially a TX storm because of one group of model runs. This place is getting to me, can someone give me a sedative so I don't read anymore until Sunday?

I'll be happy if we are spared from this storm but if this storm has shown me anything it is that it has the forecasters fooled, for now. We have seen, on average, 2 noticeable shifts a day. This is just another in the long line and something tell me that with 3-4 days left, it wont be the last.

[Dean4Storms]

The 00z models and later runs tomorrow will be much more beneficial too all and likely more dependable once the samplings taken today by the NOAA G-IV Jet gets fed into the computer models tonight. So hang in there everyone and just prepare where you can if you are in the cone.

[Agua]

Will all the data be fully ingested in the 00z runs?

[weatherguru18]

The one model that has been pretty consistent, withing about 100 miles or so of New Orleans on landfall for 7 or 8 runs now, is the GFDL. That consistency might mean something. If it starts wild swings, then I'll get concerned.

Even the gfdl is starting to shift west now. Not to mention, the gfdl in years past has made some outlandish predictions. In my experience, it usually is the outlier.

[southerngale]

My father works for the federal government and they had a conference call with the NHC this morning. Apparently, the NHC is worried about a trough over Florida that could pick up Gustav and shift it east as far as Pensacola. He said that they were saying none of the models are factoring that in and they are very concerned about the uncertainty of the track.

I know things are trending west. What is the possibility of the above happening, of having a substantial shift east?

He also said that contraflow is going to begin on Saturday at 6pm in LA to evacuate lower parishes.

that was mentioned in NHC discussion earlier but I wouldnt think it would get much attention here

Yeah, this site should be storms2TX.org. The models go east - the models stink. The models go west, the models are dead on accurate. A bunch of griping and complaining from everybody. And why the need to justify everything? If you believe it's going to TX, fine. You don't have to convince everybody.

Excuse me, but I have seen plenty of bickering and "my model is better than your model" coming from SEVERAL states. It certainly isn't just one state and your comment about Storm2k is offending, if not unbelievable. I guess you've missed a lot of posts.

Anyhow, the leftward shift has my stomach in knots. I don't want a hurricane and cringe at the thought of it possibly coming here. Maybe they will shift back east... at least that seems consistent.

[rainman]

watch this arrogant tv met from beaumont.

http://www.kfdm.com/video/index.php?bcp ... 1761979073

[txag2005]

This bickering is getting ridiculous. I know I'm new around here, but what's the point of all the complaining and calling others "-removed-". It's human nature to have an interest in the area you reside and doesn't necessarily mean your a sick person who wants to get hit by a major hurricane. The name calling is getting stupid and taking away from those of us who care and want to get good information so we can plan for this storm.

Regarding the Texas comment, I assume that the 5-6+ million who live in the SE Texas region alone would account for the large amount of Texas posters on this forum. As I said above, people tend to show interest in models and forecasts that affect their area, so if there is a high percent of Texas posters, it will get more attention.

[Sirius LeWindy]

watch this arrogant tv met from beaumont.

http://www.kfdm.com/video/index.php?bcp ... 1761979073

Are you one of the "callers"?

I did not think it was arrogant.

[southerngale]

Models are like butt holes....

Kidding.

The first thing I do after I read a post is to check where the person is from. Usually the egocentricity of the poster predicts the basis of their post. Texans figure texas, Louisiana'ns say LA, etc...

Given that, I think is is coming to Texas, via I-45 north, taking the FM 1488 exit, and heading west.... Cat 5, close to 280mph.

Or maybe people in Texas are more concerned about the models that show their area. People in Louisiana are more concerned about the ones that show their area. People in Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, etc. - all more concerned about the ones that show their areas. This is really pretty logical and I don't see why it isn't obvious to everyone.

Please see my post on page 97. If the bickering and accusations don't stop, warnings and/or suspensions will be issued.