ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

which means it will be upon us in 5 days....that means watches/warnings would go up late Tuesday or early Wednesday it seems

If they are talking Thursday for landfall, and that's a BIG IF, watches and warnings will go up on Monday IMO.

Why do you think so early?

[smithtim]

, bottom line gator is this is very complicated setup and we might have some interaction with gus to throw into the mix

GFDL and a few others:
treat Gustav as a dying low pressure system on Hannah runs, and treats Hannah as a dying low pressure system on Gustav runs!

I'm not sure that they will actaully have interaction with each other, but the surrounding conditons will be modified....

[wzrgirl1]

I thought it was 48 hours for a watch and 24-36 for a warning.

[Trader Ron]

which means it will be upon us in 5 days....that means watches/warnings would go up late Tuesday or early Wednesday it seems

If they are talking Thursday for landfall, and that's a BIG IF, watches and warnings will go up on Monday IMO.

Why do you think so early?

The NHC issued watches and warnings 48 hrs prior for FAY. You have many more people on the EC of Florida. Of course it depends on it's strength.

[Trader Ron]

Let me correct that. 48 hrs for the watch for Fay.

[Bocadude85]

That is a scary run from the Euro and man has it been consistent

[Evil Jeremy]

It is not about strength. Watches and Warnings are issued 36/24 hours in advance to an area that can feel high winds, not because the storm will make landfall in 36/24 hours. It is about the time of winds, not the time of landfall.

[Trader Ron]

They issued a Watch for Fay 48 hrs before landfall.

FWIW....JB on FOX. He said Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4.

[gatorcane]

They issued a Watch for Fay 48 hrs before landfall.

FWIW....JB on FOX. He said Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4.

Well I have to say my concern has grown some today looking at the synoptic setup and models gradually shifting to a more realistic gradual WSW or SW bend instead of due SSW or South, not to mention they are speeding this process up some bringing Hanna closer to the Bahamas and FL coast quicker. We are looking at about 5-7 days instead of 8-10 days that we were talking 24 hours ago.

Right now the NHC has the cone pointed SW "away" from FL.......which is eased the concern some in Southern FL. But looking at just how consistent the Euro model has been and how the other models are gradually following the Euro.....like the deep BAMs, CMC, and NOGAPS

well....that cone has got to start bending more West again.....I know there is a lot of time for things to change I hope.

I'm just slightly concerned right now not overly concerned.

[AdamFirst]

Where does the Euro landfall it at, and what would be the presumed heading?

[gatorcane]

Where does the Euro landfall it at, and what would be the presumed heading?

His the Euro 6 days out --- and the Euro has been very consistent on a South FL or Fl Keys Hit run after run for the past two days straight.

[Bocadude85]

They issued a Watch for Fay 48 hrs before landfall.

FWIW....JB on FOX. He said Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4.

Thats a BOLD statment..... especially to say on air infront of millions of people....

[Trader Ron]

Say what you want about JB . He is bold.

[deltadog03]

They issued a Watch for Fay 48 hrs before landfall.

FWIW....JB on FOX. He said Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4.

Well I have to say my concern has grown some today looking at the synoptic setup and models gradually shifting to a more realistic gradual WSW or SW bend instead of due SSW or South, not to mention they are speeding this process up some bringing Hanna closer to the Bahamas and FL coast quicker. We are looking at about 5-7 days instead of 8-10 days that we were talking 24 hours ago.

Right now the NHC has the cone pointed SW "away" from FL.......which is eased the concern some in Southern FL. But looking at just how consistent the Euro model has been and how the other models are gradually following the Euro.....like the deep BAMs, CMC, and NOGAPS

well....that cone has got to start bending more West again.....I know there is a lot of time for things to change I hope.

I'm just slightly concerned right now not overly concerned.

I agree with you on this...I have parents in Stuart, so I am tyring to give them all the latest. I still think things have sped up a bit as well...Euro has this over eh...south florida by wed.. and fl panhandle by next fridday....

[deltadog03]

Say what you want about JB . He is bold.

IMO that is VERY possible...Looks like Hanna is gonna move quick enough to get under the upper ridge over florida.....

[jlauderdal]

They issued a Watch for Fay 48 hrs before landfall.

FWIW....JB on FOX. He said Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4.

Well I have to say my concern has grown some today looking at the synoptic setup and models gradually shifting to a more realistic gradual WSW or SW bend instead of due SSW or South, not to mention they are speeding this process up some bringing Hanna closer to the Bahamas and FL coast quicker. We are looking at about 5-7 days instead of 8-10 days that we were talking 24 hours ago.

Right now the NHC has the cone pointed SW "away" from FL.......which is eased the concern some in Southern FL. But looking at just how consistent the Euro model has been and how the other models are gradually following the Euro.....like the deep BAMs, CMC, and NOGAPS

well....that cone has got to start bending more West again.....I know there is a lot of time for things to change I hope.

I'm just slightly concerned right now not overly concerned.

I agree with you on this...I have parents in Stuart, so I am tyring to give them all the latest. I still think things have sped up a bit as well...Euro has this over eh...south florida by wed.. and fl panhandle by next fridday....

ok, so what are you telling your parents, stuart is right up 95 from me

[deltadog03]

I told them to be prepared/start thinking about a possible cat 2 somewhere on the east coast florida....I said somewhere from Keys to melbourne....

[KWT]

Problem is its got to survive pretty much going under a ULL first, though once on the other side I guess the shear may actually start to help to vent the convection somewhat and develop a outflow channel.

That ECM suggests a historic week upcoming for the US...

[jlauderdal]

I told them to be prepared/start thinking about a possible cat 2 somewhere on the east coast florida....I said somewhere from Keys to melbourne....

that seems reasonable, thanks, keep us updated

[Evil Jeremy]

18 GFS is rolling. WNW movement through 54 hours, then Hanna slows down and heads more westward:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml