ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

Correct Norm....a louisiana landfall could be a nasty scenario for Texas with a west movement (as a few models say)...Still ways off (4 days).

Hopefully Saturday will clear some things but I believe it will be Sunday/Monday before it's all said and done before it's "more clearer".

[Johnny]

Gotta love the new run from the HWRF....totally different than it's last run.



One thing that is noticeable in just about every model is the westward turn before landfall or right after land fall.

[haml8]

I would like to see if there is any coincidence (or statistics) that show when a storm is beginning with a "G" that model X is more likley to be accurate.

As long as we are postulating fanatical hypothesis' why not??!!

[HouTXmetro]

Gotta love the new run from the HWRF....totally different than it's last run.



One thing that is noticeable in just about every model is the westward turn before landfall or right after land fall.

Whats new about the HWRF run?

[HCSD]

HWRF takes the storm to South Central LA coast and then turns back to SW. Another model showing the western turn. Hmmm.

[Johnny]

I call this one the 'Look out New Iberia!!'....ahhhh, nevermind.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[haml8]

accuweather models.. Looks like they are liking the Texas Turnaround a bit JUST AN OPINION NOT A FORECAST, please don't flood my email with spam hate mail...

[dwg71]

hwrf takes near the coast and then stops and goes SSW away from everybody.

[Johnny]

The UKMET shows the big westward bend...not really sure what to think of this one.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Johnny]

Oh and before anyone starts running their mouth...I'm just posting the model runs. In no way do I want Gus to hit Texas. I run a business that would be greatly effect by Gus if he came to town. That should crush anyone's stupid -removed- comments. Carry on.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080829 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 1800 080830 0600 080830 1800 080831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 79.2W 20.1N 81.5W 21.5N 83.9W 22.6N 86.1W
BAMD 18.8N 79.2W 20.0N 81.1W 21.5N 83.1W 23.2N 85.2W
BAMM 18.8N 79.2W 20.0N 81.2W 21.3N 83.2W 22.8N 85.0W
LBAR 18.8N 79.2W 20.0N 80.8W 21.7N 82.8W 23.5N 84.5W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 80KTS 86KTS
DSHP 60KTS 70KTS 80KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 1800 080901 1800 080902 1800 080903 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 87.8W 26.4N 90.3W 29.3N 92.6W 30.6N 94.1W
BAMD 24.9N 87.3W 28.1N 91.0W 30.7N 93.2W 31.6N 93.8W
BAMM 24.5N 86.7W 28.0N 89.9W 30.9N 92.4W 31.8N 93.6W
LBAR 25.3N 86.0W 27.8N 88.0W 29.3N 89.9W 30.4N 92.5W
SHIP 94KTS 95KTS 84KTS 72KTS
DSHP 89KTS 91KTS 53KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 79.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 77.7W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 984MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM

[Stratosphere747]

12z Euro shifts W to near the Tx/La. border.

[HCSD]

Looks like GFDL is going to be the East outliner again. Only now its to the West of New Orleans.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Euro shifts W to near the Tx/La. border.

Link us

[vaffie]

Looks like GFDL is going to be the East outliner again. Only now its to the West of New Orleans.

Remember that there are two GFDL runs--one is based on the GFS data, the other is based on the NOGAPS data, but they are the same computer model. The GFS-based GFDL hits SE Louisiana, while the NOGAPS-based NGFDL hits SE Texas. Keep in mind that the GFDL is not a global model. It can make big errors--it's going to be thrown out next year. The one to really watch and the one that the NHC likes the most is the EURO. It only runs twice a day and it runs much later than the other models--because it's the most sophisticated and computing power-intensive global model out there. It does exceptional jobs on hurricane tracking. Remember that 10 days ago, it projected perfectly where this storm would be right now and how strong it would get. So when it shows SW Louisiana and the last two runs have moved westward towards the Texas-Louisiana border, it's no reason to panic, but it's very concerning. Regardless, everyone on the Gulf Coast should be prepared for this storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

Def a roller coaster with models....Euro was east last night and now back west...It's a TX/LA thing. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best....

Per Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt Arthur) Emergency response meeting, if a evac is called it will be Sunday morning and voluntary on Saturday IF they call for one.

[Johnny]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Landfall somewhere between Vermillion Parish and Port Arthur, as free version Euro has pretty low graphic resolution.





If this keeps up another day or two I'll have to act all sheepish, but I don't let one adverse model run get me rattled.


But I will watch this, as should everyone living near the Gulf, closely.

[sealbach]

link to the models:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, so the models have shifted back towards SWLA and Mid to Upper TX coast. TO my understanding these models are more accurate since they are using the Dropsonde data?