ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Stormcenter]

GFDL continues to target NOLA

But it's practically standing by itself now. I guess
all of the others are wrong and the GFDL is right or
vice versa. I'll let the NHC make that decision for me.

[A1A]

How about that AEMN model - hey, let me go back and hit New Orleans again!!

[Sabanic]

Nothing has really changed. Still a cluster in SE/LA

We've got a tense few days ahead with Gus so everyone stay calm and be ready

Clustered over SE LA? These are old runs and the news one are further west now.
I'm not sure where you see the cluster in SE La. unless you are just referring to two models
that are now shifting westward with consensus.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Okay I'm out of here now. Make a comment and get blasted. Good luck all. Everyone needs to chill.

[dwg71]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html

Its still pretty clustered around, SE LA, your image has NOGAPS, NGDFL, and UKMET. Basically two models that show it out west. THey could shift, but they (consensous) have been between Central and SE LA.

[Stormcenter]

How about that AEMN model - hey, let me go back and hit New Orleans again!!

Central maybe SW La. looks like the landfall area. I'm betting
on it not being "as strong" as many are fearing when he makes
landfall. Our friend is Mr. Shear.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm not sure why folks use the SFWMD maps when half the models are old and initialized incorrectly.

[HouTXmetro]

Nothing has really changed. Still a cluster in SE/LA

We've got a tense few days ahead with Gus so everyone stay calm and be ready

Clustered over SE LA? These are old runs and the news one are further west now.
I'm not sure where you see the cluster in SE La. unless you are just referring to two models
that are now shifting westward with consensus.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Wunderground has not updated there models. Of the 6 they have listed 3 are in TX and 3 to Louisiana. Hope they update soon. Now the other site with more models are have way more clustered in SELA... I will note that they have moves slightly W and none go East of New Orleans anymore.

[BigB0882]

The only thing I can figure is that Stormcenter is looking at the westward motion some models are predicting AFTER landfall. IMO, the biggest cluster is from central to SE LA. IMO, I see none in SW LA and then only the two in TX. I guess we see what we want to see, perhaps myself included.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Sabanic"][quote="Stormcenter"][quote="Sabanic"]Nothing has really changed. Still a cluster in SE/LA

We've got a tense few days ahead with Gus so everyone stay calm and be ready[/quote]


Clustered over SE LA? These are old runs and the news one are further west now.
I'm not sure where you see the cluster in SE La. unless you are just referring to two models
that are now shifting westward with consensus.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html[/quote]

Okay I'm out of here now. Make a comment and get blasted. Good luck all. Everyone needs to chill.[/quote]



One has to be very careful with what they say...you may be saying something that is in direct opposition to someone's "wishcasts"...

[Stormcenter]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html

Its still pretty clustered around, SE LA, your image has NOGAPS, NGDFL, and UKMET. Basically two models that show it out west. THey could shift, but they (consensous) have been between Central and SE LA.

The NHC sometimes or often uses a blend of all "reliable" models for it's projected tracks.
Can you say Central or SW LA.?

[Weatherfreak000]

I wonder why model shifts to the west always get noticed, but when they shift to the East, it's hardly relevant?



The model cluster is clearly centered in Cent-SE LA. NOGAPS and UKMET are utter garbage atm.

[Sabanic]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html

Its still pretty clustered around, SE LA, your image has NOGAPS, NGDFL, and UKMET. Basically two models that show it out west. THey could shift, but they (consensous) have been between Central and SE LA.

The NHC sometimes or often uses a blend of all "reliable" models for it's projected tracks.
Can you say Central or SW LA.?

This will be my last post, but all I can say SC is that yesterday afternoon & some of last night it was TX/SWLA this morning it was SE/LA, and I'd be willing to bet that before he gets a head of steam going in the GOM it changes several more times. Could be TX, but could be MS/AL. Who knows?

[perk]

All of my fellow Texas people trying to get excited over this- probably not this one. We're still in the cone, so you can stay a little excited, but if this goes where most of the reliable guidance suggests, or perhaps even further East as it tracks more Northeast of the earlier forecast points as a trough digs all the way to the Yucatan, it'll still be a big event here. Houston will probably wind up housing tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of storm evacuees.




Anyway, if Hanna actually gets all the way South to Cuba, the entire Gulf Coast will be doing this all over again next weekend.


This is potentially a very disruptive week to ten days coming up for everyone in the country, especially along the Gulf. And gasoline prices are almost certain to rise for everyone.

But the NoGaps and UK Met models have been lost since the beginning.

Stay tuned in case the completely unexpected happens, better safe than sorry, but this has all the makings of a SE LA to Fla. P'handle storm.

In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion.

ED had you bothered to look at your local news, you would know that Ed Emmet Harris county judge said that Houston would not be a host city for people evacuating, and i won't even bother to comment on the rest of your ridiculous post.

wow this continued bashing is getting old...its up to 4 pages now! I think Ed has already explained his reasoning and qaulified it with his DISCLAIMER...would like to see some more post on the models please

rtd2 i have no problem with ED's opinion on Gustav, but i as well as others on this forum is a little tired of his snipes on how fellow Texans are wishing this storm our way. He needs to speak only for himself.

[jacindc]

I'm not sure why folks use the SFWMD maps when half the models are old and initialized incorrectly.

It's now got the 12Z GFDL, running right into southeast Louisiana.

[Air Force Met]

I wonder why model shifts to the west always get noticed, but when they shift to the East, it's hardly relevant?



The model cluster is clearly centered in Cent-SE LA. NOGAPS and UKMET are utter garbage atm.

Then you are also going to need to throw out the HWRF. Take a gander at what it does.

Not going to say...don't want to give away the surprise.

BTW...12z GFS WELL west of the 00z run from last night.

Hey DWG...its trending /joking

[Stormcenter]

I wonder why model shifts to the west always get noticed, but when they shift to the East, it's hardly relevant?



The model cluster is clearly centered in Cent-SE LA. NOGAPS and UKMET are utter garbage atm.

UKMET did a wonderful job with that K storm so I wouldn't call it junk at all.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I wonder why model shifts to the west always get noticed, but when they shift to the East, it's hardly relevant?



The model cluster is clearly centered in Cent-SE LA. NOGAPS and UKMET are utter garbage atm.

UKMET did a wonderful job with that K storm so I wouldn't call it junk at all.

If you want to get Technical The UKMET shifted East..Last run it was headed tward South TX/MEX

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep, UKMET had texas for a while....GFS was good with Dolly as was EURO...So to each is own.

[HCSD]

Whats a couple hundred mile model swing among friends. Come on folks.

[Normandy]

What is worrisome really isn't even the leftward shift, its the westward bend when it gets towards the coast. With a track like that, even a MINOR overall shift left will bring this into Texas. We must watch very closely, all of us Gulf Coast residents.