ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Loos like she is over Sanibel area in 6 days..

IMO, that loop is to extreme, if Hanna moves in that general direction that SW loop will flatten out a little.

Thing that is interesting is that she does turn wnw after her sw dive.. and we know models are usually off by a few hundred miles that far out.. definately need to keep a eye on her here in Florida.

[tgenius]

My bigger concern is with the implications involved of raising watches and warnings, how hesitant will NHC be with activating them, especially given such a complicated track with the level of uncertainty.

[Bocadude85]

My bigger concern is with the implications involved of raising watches and warnings, how hesitant will NHC be with activating them, especially given such a complicated track with the level of uncertainty.

If she does anything close to what the GFS is showing watches and warning would have to be issued... GFS shows her making landfall in extreme south florida.

[tolakram]

My bigger concern is with the implications involved of raising watches and warnings, how hesitant will NHC be with activating them, especially given such a complicated track with the level of uncertainty.

I believe there is a fixed rule for raising watches and warnings. If an area is in the cone and the designated number of hours out then they will be placed under the appropriate weather watch/warning regardless of forecast uncertainty.

[jlauderdal]

My bigger concern is with the implications involved of raising watches and warnings, how hesitant will NHC be with activating them, especially given such a complicated track with the level of uncertainty.

I believe there is a fixed rule for raising watches and warnings. If an area is in the cone and the designated number of hours out then they will be placed under the appropriate weather watch/warning regardless of forecast uncertainty.

Hurricane Warning:
A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

[Canelaw99]

My bigger concern is with the implications involved of raising watches and warnings, how hesitant will NHC be with activating them, especially given such a complicated track with the level of uncertainty.

If she does anything close to what the GFS is showing watches and warning would have to be issued... GFS shows her making landfall in extreme south florida.

Nope, no way...no thank you....just looked at that run and it puts it coming in over my vicinity...nope...not liking it one bit....good thing we're a few days out, but these models have been trending the same way and I don't like it.....gonna be a LOOOONNNNGGGGG week

[jlauderdal]

My bigger concern is with the implications involved of raising watches and warnings, how hesitant will NHC be with activating them, especially given such a complicated track with the level of uncertainty.

If she does anything close to what the GFS is showing watches and warning would have to be issued... GFS shows her making landfall in extreme south florida.

Nope, no way...no thank you....just looked at that run and it puts it coming in over my vicinity...nope...not liking it one bit....good thing we're a few days out, but these models have been trending the same way and I don't like it.....gonna be a LOOOONNNNGGGGG week

any sign of the hurricane hunters down there, i believe they have been setting up shop there the last few days

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL:

WHXX04 KWBC 291728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM HANNA 08L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.0 62.6 280./ 8.9
6 21.5 63.1 316./ 7.4
12 22.5 63.9 321./12.2
18 23.7 65.5 305./18.7
24 24.5 67.1 296./16.7
30 24.9 68.7 287./14.8
36 24.9 69.8 268./ 9.8
42 25.1 70.6 286./ 8.1
48 25.4 71.4 287./ 7.3
54 25.4 71.9 272./ 4.7
60 25.1 72.3 236./ 4.0
66 24.8 72.5 220./ 4.0
72 24.4 73.0 227./ 5.6
78 23.8 73.2 202./ 6.3
84 23.4 73.5 215./ 5.2
90 22.7 74.0 215./ 7.8
96 21.9 74.3 203./ 8.6
102 21.5 74.4 196./ 4.4
108 20.9 74.7 199./ 6.7
114 20.4 74.7 184./ 4.7
120 20.3 74.6 142./ 1.1
126 20.8 74.8 343./ 5.6

[Bocadude85]

so she dives southwest then turns to the northwest?

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET sinks to South of Cuba:

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 62.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.08.2008 22.0N 62.7W WEAK

00UTC 30.08.2008 22.1N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 23.1N 66.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 23.8N 68.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 24.9N 71.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.9N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 24.8N 73.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2008 24.1N 74.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 02.09.2008 23.8N 76.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2008 23.1N 77.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 03.09.2008 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 04.09.2008 21.7N 81.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 04.09.2008 21.4N 82.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Bocadude85]

lol these models have to be over doing this ridge..

[lbvbl]

lol these models have to be over doing this ridge..

just wondering, what makes you say that?

[Evil Jeremy]

lol these models have to be over doing this ridge..

just wondering, what makes you say that?

The fact that the ridge is unnaturally strong in the models.

[fci]

12z UKMET sinks to South of Cuba:

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 62.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.08.2008 22.0N 62.7W WEAK

00UTC 30.08.2008 22.1N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 23.1N 66.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 23.8N 68.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 24.9N 71.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.9N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 24.8N 73.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2008 24.1N 74.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 02.09.2008 23.8N 76.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2008 23.1N 77.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 03.09.2008 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 04.09.2008 21.7N 81.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 04.09.2008 21.4N 82.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

Which puts her almost exactly where Gustav will be about 30 hours from now.
Following her big brother???

[Bocadude85]

12z UKMET sinks to South of Cuba:

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 62.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.08.2008 22.0N 62.7W WEAK

00UTC 30.08.2008 22.1N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2008 23.1N 66.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2008 23.8N 68.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2008 24.9N 71.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2008 24.9N 72.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.09.2008 24.8N 73.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2008 24.1N 74.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 02.09.2008 23.8N 76.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2008 23.1N 77.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 03.09.2008 22.3N 79.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 04.09.2008 21.7N 81.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 04.09.2008 21.4N 82.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

Which puts her almost exactly where Gustav will be about 30 hours from now.
Following her big brother???

Im not sure how much I trust the UKMET that model has been a outlier with Gustav also... so Im not sure I put much faith into it.. not that I really have any faith in any of the other models either.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC in Central Bahamas and just off the coast of SE Florida as a powerful hurricane:

[Canelaw99]

any sign of the hurricane hunters down there, i believe they have been setting up shop there the last few days

Not sure because I've been in Lauderdale since Wed. (my parents are in town)...I'll find out Sunday & Monday when I'm back that way

[jlauderdal]

lol these models have to be over doing this ridge..

just wondering, what makes you say that?

The fact that the ridge is unnaturally strong in the models.

cmon people, the models are liking this motion, its not impossible, im not saying they veirfy but lets not say it isnt going to happen just because its rare, weather doesnt always move wnw

[gatorcane]

it seem to me that models that make Hanna a powerful hurricane (e.g CMC and NOGAPS) do not dive her SW as much as models that keep her more shallow (UKMET, GFS)

[Bocadude85]

12Z CMC in Central Bahamas and just off the coast of SE Florida as a powerful hurricane:

its going to take a few more days for the models to figure out the evolution of Hanna though I wouldnt be surprised to see a Betsy like track... the sypnotics are similar to what happened with Betsy also..