ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Sabanic]

Still a couple of outliers, but most of the guidance has been fairly close, and has been that way for several runs.

Houston is still in the cone of uncertainty, so it is wise to keep a close watch, but, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, I would be surprised if landfall wasn't between Pensacola and Intracoastal City.

No doubt Ed. Houston is definitely still in the picture unfortunately.

[HouTXmetro]

Wundergrounds NGFDL model is into the Houston Ship Channel. Further West from Yesterday..But I never really heard of that model. LOL

[dwg71]

basically its the nogaps. gfdl ran on nogaps grid vs gfs.

[Cookiely]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008082900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

No one talks about the cmc, and all I can say is I sure hope it's way wrong in showing much, much weaker ridging across the southeastern US as it take Gustav on a stroll or rampage along the coastline from southern Florida to near the Texas border.

The problem is none of these runs have any good news to bear for whomever is in the path of Gustav. Just my lowly, unofficial position.

I ran that cmc at five this morning and it made my stomach give a flip. I once asked if that scenario was possible in a worst case track. Prayers for everyone in the path of Gustav.

[smw1981]

GFDL still showing a very severe set-up for N.O, the surge would go right into the lake...

yes, bad for NO, worse for MCG and Mobile Bay...sending the surge straight into downtown Mobile. I think we heard (when I lived there) that if a category 3/4 hit the MS/AL line, it could/would send water 3-4 miles inland. At least NO would be on the western side... (And MGC was also slammed by Katrina; had worse wind damage than NO, more surge, etc.)

[Sabanic]

GFDL still showing a very severe set-up for N.O, the surge would go right into the lake...

yes, bad for NO, worse for MCG and Mobile Bay...sending the surge straight into downtown Mobile. I think we heard (when I lived there) that if a category 3/4 hit the MS/AL line, it could/would send water 3-4 miles inland. At least NO would be on the western side... (And MGC was also slammed by Katrina; had worse wind damage than NO, more surge, etc.)

That's exactly what they said KWT after Frederic. If he had made landfall at HIGH Tide it would have been even worse if that's possible.

[alicia83]

Well now I feel guilty for even bringing up the cmc as I'm guessing my doing so is what caused the rucus on the main thread for Gustav. Look, I'm just a rank beginner. It just seems if a model's out there, then it can be talked about. Perhaps someone far more knowledgeable can speak to the why's and why not's on the cmc.

My intent was certainly not to cause any problems for anyone.

[Steve]

>>I'm sorry, I just had to, I"m siting here in st charles parish trying to figure out what I need to box up to leave as though there will be nothing left when I get back. I have 4 children to worry about as well as several animals. Makes me a bit of a basket case, so I hope you will all forgive me.

We'll take a look at things tomorrow and either get out Sunday or early Monday after the insane traffic dies down. Not sure where we're heading, but we have a few options depending on how far we want to travel. Just be smart and elevate what you can. That was my biggest mistake for Katrina (saving for wind/looters and not flooding).

[weatherguru18]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

[dwg71]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

For NOLA's sake I hope you are right, but I think this will end up east of NOLA and be devestating.

[Sabanic]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

Here at 88.5-88.7 W I am not going to relax until he is West of 90 and North of 30

[oyster_reef]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

everything to the east of the eye will have a problem with this... it's the west side that should have much less of a problem.

[Portastorm]

Don't know if anyone posted this yet ... 12z runs on Gus:

[Kennethb]

Question:

When you run the gfdl model of Gustav and then Hannah, why does Gustuv's track differ when Hannah's gfdl is run. For instance on Gustav's 6z run he goes up, just east of NO and NNW into Mississippi. Yes when you run Hannah's 6z run, it shows Gustav veering west as it comes on shore. BTW, gfdl run of Hannah, never seen that before.

[Jason_B]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

Fortunately it's starting to look that way, still not letting my guard down but for some reason I just think this is a SE TX storm...Gustav and that cone keeps inching west everyday and that's the a much bigger consensus than any of the models have had.

[dwg71]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

Fortunately it's starting to look that way, still not letting my guard down but for some reason I just think this is a SE TX storm...Gustav and that cone keeps inching west everyday and that's the a much bigger consensus than any of the models have had.

You realize that NHC sits on the eastern edge of model guidance ?



expectations of a storm track moved west are very small. imo. trough is already lifting gus more north. if anything east of nola is seeing their risk increase.

[HouTXmetro]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

Fortunately it's starting to look that way, still not letting my guard down but for some reason I just think this is a SE TX storm...Gustav and that cone keeps inching west everyday and that's the a much bigger consensus than any of the models have had.

What? a majority the models are East of Vermilion Bay.

[weatherguru18]

I just really don't see this being a problem east of N.O...actually Vermilion Bay. Just my opinion.

Fortunately it's starting to look that way, still not letting my guard down but for some reason I just think this is a SE TX storm...Gustav and that cone keeps inching west everyday and that's the a much bigger consensus than any of the models have had.

What? a majority the models are East of Vermilion Bay.

For now.

[Stormcenter]

It looks "right now" like a Central/SW LA. event but I'm very
sure it will change some.

[Ed Mahmoud]

All of my fellow Texas people trying to get excited over this- probably not this one. We're still in the cone, so you can stay a little excited, but if this goes where most of the reliable guidance suggests, or perhaps even further East as it tracks more Northeast of the earlier forecast points as a trough digs all the way to the Yucatan, it'll still be a big event here. Houston will probably wind up housing tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of storm evacuees.




Anyway, if Hanna actually gets all the way South to Cuba, the entire Gulf Coast will be doing this all over again next weekend.


This is potentially a very disruptive week to ten days coming up for everyone in the country, especially along the Gulf. And gasoline prices are almost certain to rise for everyone.

But the NoGaps and UK Met models have been lost since the beginning.

Stay tuned in case the completely unexpected happens, better safe than sorry, but this has all the makings of a SE LA to Fla. P'handle storm.


In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion.