ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

Uh, oh Ivanhater. I'm willing to bet $0.02 that this run slams your location.

Highly doubt it

[Matthew Williams]

I think Ivan might be talking about the P3 Plane that was scheduled to go in there. I am not sure if that was also canceled. Also, looks like the GFS is really picking up Gustav to be a major hurricane.

[Wx_Warrior]

I expect that NW curve anytime now....

[Ivanhater]

78 hours

[gboudx]

I think Ivan might be talking about the P3 Plane that was scheduled to go in there. I am not sure if that was also canceled. Also, looks like the GFS is really picking up Gustav to be a major hurricane.

Hmmm. Ed Mahmoud and I had a discussion about the NOAA G-IV mission being cancelled today and rescheduled for tomorrow. But admittedly, I don't know much about this stuff. I saw Ivanhater mention "NOAA" and assumed he meant the Gulfstream flight.

[dwg71]

through 84 hours it looks well east

[GeneratorPower]

dwg, where did you find 84 hours? It's not out yet.

[dwg71]

[Nederlander]

GFS = your brain on drugs

[PTPatrick]

Oh lawd...that 78 hour GFS is like a hundred miles east of the previous one....south of Baldwin County instead of Plaquemines parrish

[dwg71]

GFS = your brain on drugs

has been a very reliable model... dont discount it because you dont agree with out put.
gfdl has similar path.

[Ivanhater]

Oh lawd...that 78 hour GFS is like a hundred miles east of the previous one....south of Baldwin County instead of Plaquemines parrish

If the gfdl stays the same tonight...crap

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't sell it short just yet...GFS has a better track record than several models.

[Matthew Williams]

Generatorpower, sometimes it takes a while for the links to update on a website. For example, http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... s/gfs_85v_084m.gif, noticed what I bolded, that is the time from forecast. In this instance it is 84 hours. 090 would be 90 hours and so on. If you change the time to say 090 it might be up. So far as of right now it isn't. But sometimes it works. Hope that helps.

[Nederlander]

GFS = your brain on drugs

has been a very reliable model... dont discount it because you dont agree with out put.
gfdl has similar path.

overall i agree with you, but with Gus, its been pretty whack... ill just stick with NHC instead of going with one specific model...

[PTrackerLA]

Just when I thought models would be shifting more and more westward, the new GFS shifts east. MAN this back and forth is painfull, especially when your home continues to be in the cross hairs of the model consensus and NHC forecast. I can't wait for winter people.

[Stormcenter]

Oh lawd...that 78 hour GFS is like a hundred miles east of the previous one....south of Baldwin County instead of Plaquemines parrish

If the gfdl stays the same tonight...crap [/quote

I give up (again). These models don't have clue where this storm is going.
Heck I still have some doubts it will ever make it into the GOM.

[Air Force Met]

Sorry, but that's a complete oversimplification and one I would disagree with Air Force Met on. The trough isn't going to "erode the ridge" permanently. It's a swipe at best - a swipe that may well not even effect Hanna. A NW moving storm or even a northward moving storm is only going to define the western extremity. Think a trough is going to be in the wake of Gustav 3 days after it landfalls if it comes in going N, NNW or NW? Not a chance. Ridging will only get stronger. It's dynamical law. It's going to take a couple of surface features coming in from both the SE and NW to erode that position. There is no other way.

Steve

Well...perhaps if I was quoted correctly, or you knew what I was talking about, you wouldn't disagree with me..and I certainly didn't oversimplify it.

Not really sure what you are saying...but what I said was the trof out west is progressing eastward and the ridge over the plains is the key. The evolution of that ridge (the one that is currently over CA and ridging into OK) iskey to Gustav...more than the ridge in place right now. If that ridge is slower and stronger...and the trof out west (that is progged to come into the west coast on Saturday) is slower...then Gustav will be slowing down as it gets into the central GoM...and the track would be further west. I said that 2 days ago...and now you are reading it in the NHC discussions and seeing the bend in the track.

The other factor is...of course...the short term westward movement. Does it go farther west (than the WNW forecasted) due to the ridging over the GoM and SEUS over the next 36 hours? Add that to the above issue with the central plains ridge and you get what I was talking about. the final end game is NOT about the ridge that is steering it now...but the ridge that will be joining up with that ridge (that is steering it now) in 2 days or so. The plains ridge is the big player.

[PTPatrick]

oddly enough...I am not expert on the upper level charts (I did stay at a holiday inn recently though)...But I would appear that in the short term, like tomorrow night ito Saturday morning the weakness is much greater in the eastern gulf. The Ridge still seems to start to build in a little later and slows it down but doesnt seem to actually stop it.

[Matthew Williams]

Oh no 102 Hour GFS has Gustav hitting Mobile Bay.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102m.gif

Worst part it has it stalled with maybe a slight west drift through 114 hours.