ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Sabanic]

11;00 PM definitely has moved westward at landfall. Starting to get the feeling we on this end may left alone with old Gus

[Ivanhater]

00Z NAM finally laying off its crackhead yucatan solution now

[Nederlander]

11;00 PM definitely has moved westward at landfall. Starting to get the feeling we on this end may left alone with old Gus

yea i didnt expect the nhc track to move much tonight, but it looks like its definitely following the models toward SW LA

[Ivanhater]

Ok first model of the 00Z complete..NAM finally changed its track

[CrazyC83]

11;00 PM definitely has moved westward at landfall. Starting to get the feeling we on this end may left alone with old Gus

Still too early to put down your guard though. Anywhere from Corpus Christi eastward to Fort Walton Beach is in the cone.

[ROCK]

Ok first model of the 00Z complete..NAM finally changed its track

The NAM?? Ivan you know better......

[Ivanhater]

Lol, im just glad it finally got off the yucatan!

[pablolopez26]

Not looking good.

[Nederlander]

what got my attention more than all the models shifting around was when the NHC moved west. I'm here on the TX/LA border..

[Stratosphere747]

[Wx_Warrior]

Doesn't look good for us in SETX....I am hearing voluntaries begin Saturday.

[Steve]

>>I believe AFM said the slower he moves the further east landfall, gives the trough more time to erode the ridge

Sorry, but that's a complete oversimplification and one I would disagree with Air Force Met on. The trough isn't going to "erode the ridge" permanently. It's a swipe at best - a swipe that may well not even effect Hanna. A NW moving storm or even a northward moving storm is only going to define the western extremity. Think a trough is going to be in the wake of Gustav 3 days after it landfalls if it comes in going N, NNW or NW? Not a chance. Ridging will only get stronger. It's dynamical law. It's going to take a couple of surface features coming in from both the SE and NW to erode that position. There is no other way.

Steve

[Aquawind]

[Ivanhater]

00Z GFS coming in..has the new NOAA plane data

48 hours..little shift east in the shortrun

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS, 66 hrs...

[Ivanhater]

66 hours..still east from last run..lets see if it gets back on track

[gboudx]

00Z GFS coming in..has the new NOAA plane data

Huh? It didn't fly today. Flight plan said cancelled.

[GeneratorPower]

Uh, oh Ivanhater. I'm willing to bet $0.02 that this run slams your location.

[Ivanhater]

00Z GFS coming in..has the new NOAA plane data

Huh? It didn't fly today. Flight plan said cancelled.

Didnt the P3 plane still fly this afternoon?

[Stormcenter]

Ok first model of the 00Z complete..NAM finally changed its track

The NAM?? Ivan you know better......

Is the trough "currently" in the GOM and mentioned by the NHC in their 11pm discussion not going to move maybe?