ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[sphelps8681]

Based on models I don't see landfall east of NO. I am feeling a TX/LA landfall.

[Frank P]

What you're not seening from the major models is no major recurve scenario once Gus enters the GOM... seems to be on a pretty much straight path.. subject to change of course.. I hate recurves as they approach land...

I was thinking that same thing. Storms usually recurve poleward. I don't see that in the runs.

Yeah and its important to me to because if it holds true to form once Gus gets past your longitude and still moving nw, you would be less likely to get hit... for me once he's past 90.5 (me being at 89) and I know he won't recurve, I could survive whatever it is at the time... but that's about as close as I want it... helps regarding evacuation decisions for me personally.. .. but you need to make sure the recurve is not a factor.

[wafbwx]

Has anyone else noticed that the GFDL shows Gustav maintaining hurricane strength WELL INLAND?

Check this out..



A 982mb, 70 knot hurricane located on the Arkansas/Missouri border?! That would be insane!

You're looking at winds at the 950 mb level...check out their note in red at the bottom. Still, the winds still seem high that far inland.

[canetracker]

What you're not seening from the major models is no major recurve scenario once Gus enters the GOM... seems to be on a pretty much straight path.. subject to change of course.. I hate recurves as they approach land...

I was thinking that same thing. Storms usually recurve poleward. I don't see that in the runs.

Yeah and its important to me to because if it holds true to form once Gus gets past your longitude and still moving nw, you would be less likely to get hit... for me once he's past 90.5 (me being at 89) and I know he won't recurve, I could survive whatever it is at the time... but that's about as close as I want it... helps regarding evacuation decisions for me personally.. .. but you need to make sure the recurve is not a factor.

Thanks Frank P, I am monitoring this closely, but still just can buy into that straight and forward movement yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Has anyone else noticed that the GFDL shows Gustav maintaining hurricane strength WELL INLAND?

Check this out..



A 982mb, 70 knot hurricane located on the Arkansas/Missouri border?! That would be insane!

You're looking at winds at the 950 mb level...check out their note in red at the bottom. Still, the winds still seem high that far inland.

Yeah, you're right. Regardless though, even with the 15-25% decrease, the GFDL is still showing a 50-60 knot storm entering Missouri. That would definitely be pretty amazing if it were to verify.

[Nimbus]

Until we get some high resolution upper air data from the flights Saturday, the models can not give us an accurate landfall point. At least if they keep flip flopping everyone along the northern gulf coast will get prepared. 72 hours from landfall the models will hopefully have a clear steering pattern from a ridge or weakness that can be measured carefully.

If we are unlucky and at the last minute something like a mysteriously splitting ULL appears all the discussion about model credentials are about worthless aren't they?

[HouTXmetro]

Latest NOGAPS is Corpus Christi, looking similar to the UKMET/HWRF which is at the TX/LA border. As of now the GFDL is starting to look lonley. It's consistant though.

[sphelps8681]

Sabine Pass, Tx? Coould be.

[dwg71]

Latest NOGAPS is Corpus Christi, looking similar to the UKMET/HWRF which is at the TX/LA border. As of now the GFDL is starting to look lonley. It's consistant though.

NOGAPS is on crack, UKMET has been all over the place, I would not put too much credence in them. look at this spaghetti model...

[Stormcenter]

Latest NOGAPS is Corpus Christi, looking similar to the UKMET/HWRF which is at the TX/LA border. As of now the GFDL is starting to look lonley. It's consistant though.

Yes but the GFDL has been slowly but surely begun tracking westward with every run. It was over Mobile, AL yesterday.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Latest NOGAPS is Corpus Christi, looking similar to the UKMET/HWRF which is at the TX/LA border. As of now the GFDL is starting to look lonley. It's consistant though.

OK, I give up. Why does this look so much different than the 18Z NOGAPS image that IvanHater posted that showed it up around Cameron, LA....and the 18Z GFS that showed it directly over NO. What gives? Am I missing something?

[Dean4Storms]

Latest NOGAPS is Corpus Christi, looking similar to the UKMET/HWRF which is at the TX/LA border. As of now the GFDL is starting to look lonley. It's consistant though.

Yes but the GFDL has been slowly but surely begun tracking westward with every run. It was over Mobile, AL yesterday.

I think the GFDL has been jumping very little from just east of NO to just west of Mobile, maybe 80 miles at most.

[CrazyC83]

Latest NOGAPS is Corpus Christi, looking similar to the UKMET/HWRF which is at the TX/LA border. As of now the GFDL is starting to look lonley. It's consistant though.

NOGAPS is on crack, UKMET has been all over the place, I would not put too much credence in them. look at this spaghetti model...

If NOGAPS verifies, get ready for $6-7 a gallon gasoline...

[Frank P]

Latest NOGAPS is Corpus Christi, looking similar to the UKMET/HWRF which is at the TX/LA border. As of now the GFDL is starting to look lonley. It's consistant though.

Yes but the GFDL has been slowly but surely begun tracking westward with every run. It was over Mobile, AL yesterday.

I think the GFDL has been jumping very little from just east of NO to just west of Mobile, maybe 80 miles at most.

Looking at this map the GFS splits the middle of the pack.. where was the last NHC forecast path, pretty much in line with the GFS....splitting the middle

[Nederlander]

What you're not seening from the major models is no major recurve scenario once Gus enters the GOM... seems to be on a pretty much straight path.. subject to change of course.. I hate recurves as they approach land...

I was thinking that same thing. Storms usually recurve poleward. I don't see that in the runs.

The reason that most models indicate no poleward movement, and some even show a curve west, is because of that high pressure sitting over the southern U.S. I do agree that with most systems, a poleward movement occurs, but with Gustav, that high pressure could block that movement..

[ROCK]

what we are seeing is the high building in sooner than anticipated with some of these west bends..Gus is hung up over Jamiaca right now and any deviation in timing makes the west bend more and more a possibility. 18Z GFS showed this quite clearly.westward right after landfall into Texas... NOGAPS latching on, UKMET seeing it, HWRF slight bend to it. You slow GUs down anymore then you have it knocking on Texas's door.....


In my unofficial opinion.....of course...

[Ivanhater]

what we are seeing is the high building in sooner than anticipated with some of these west bends..Gus is hung up over Jamiaca right now and any deviation in timing makes the west bend more and more a possibility. 18Z GFS showed this quite clearly.westward right after landfall into Texas... NOGAPS latching on, UKMET seeing it, HWRF slight bend to it. You slow GUs down anymore then you have it knocking on Texas's door.....


In my unofficial opinion.....of course...

I believe AFM said the slower he moves the further east landfall, gives the trough more time to erode the ridge

[Weatherfreak000]

what we are seeing is the high building in sooner than anticipated with some of these west bends..Gus is hung up over Jamiaca right now and any deviation in timing makes the west bend more and more a possibility. 18Z GFS showed this quite clearly.westward right after landfall into Texas... NOGAPS latching on, UKMET seeing it, HWRF slight bend to it. You slow GUs down anymore then you have it knocking on Texas's door.....


In my unofficial opinion.....of course...

I believe AFM said the slower he moves the further east landfall, gives the trough more time to erode the ridge

That is entirely subjective, but yes it is actually the most likely scenario. I personally am not buying the slower movement means Texas bit.

It's more like if it moved faster then the Trough couldn't erode the ridge and push it westward. But of course this all depends on the strength of the ridge.


Regardless, I cannot wait until this is inarguable.

[ROCK]

what we are seeing is the high building in sooner than anticipated with some of these west bends..Gus is hung up over Jamiaca right now and any deviation in timing makes the west bend more and more a possibility. 18Z GFS showed this quite clearly.westward right after landfall into Texas... NOGAPS latching on, UKMET seeing it, HWRF slight bend to it. You slow GUs down anymore then you have it knocking on Texas's door.....


In my unofficial opinion.....of course...

I believe AFM said the slower he moves the further east landfall, gives the trough more time to erode the ridge

Not sure how that is possible since the 18z showed the bend to the west AFTER landfall which would mean to me a blocking high is settling in....but again it all fluid dynamics....the high over FL could erode fast enough to allow more NE direction in the short term.....I will ask him to clarify....

[Javlin]

GFDL 8/26 12z........91' --28'
...............18z.......93.7'-28.5
........8/27 00z.......90.5'-30.3'
...............06z.......91.5'-30.6'
...............12z.......89.4'-30.0'
...............18z.......89.5'-30.6'
........8/28 00z.......88.5'-30.0'
...............06z.......87.8'-30.0'
...............12z.......88.4'-30.0'
...............18z.......88.8'-30.0'

Gustav has been slow about his trek across jamaica and maybe for the swing of 60miles W since the o6z run and if it continues maybe some more in store just how much?