ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Frank P]

Hard to say just looking at the graphic but to me its a Cat 2 because its inland a ways.. probaby a Cat 3 at initial landfall... then winds down a tad.. my opinion only

[Ivanhater]

Didnt the canadian have a huge shift east? I havnt been able to follow today..been a loooong day

12z Canadian:

Hmm, pretty big swing...

[rockyman]

Didnt the canadian have a huge shift east? I havnt been able to follow today..been a loooong day

12z Canadian:

Hmm, pretty big swing...

Why, thank you!

[dwg71]

BAM suite has shifted well east. Central LA to Mississippi is the range, fwiw. take with a grain of salt.

[linkerweather]

Just wondering what makes them think this will be downgraded to a cat 2 @ landfall? Why would they possibly be thinking that when this thing is forecast to drift slowly westward along the coast? Just curious what they might be seeing.

Well that 120 hour point is a CAT 2 because it is based on it being over land. That is not the landfall forecast point.
With that said, the water in the N. GOM is colder so some weakening is possible anyway prior to landfall. Seems to happen there in the N. GOM

[PTrackerLA]

CMC really? Ivanhater you know better than to closely follow that model! GFDL completely different story, can't wait to see what the 00z holds for all us. Guess that means ANOTHER 1am night .

[Flakeys]

Jamaica Radio http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

[LSU2001]

Yeah it is colder if 83-84 degrees is cold.
The surface temps can rebound quickly though with sunny 90 degree days we have been having since fay lifted out. Gus is still a few days out yet. I hope that IF Gus comes our way there is some dry air to suck in and drop the wind speed quickly. BTW I live about 25-30 miles east of the current landfall spot so I am watching very closely.
Tim

[Ivanhater]

CMC really? Ivanhater you know better than to closely follow that model! GFDL completely different story, can't wait to see what the 00z holds for all us. Guess that means ANOTHER 1am night .

Lol yeah..but once it got a handle on fay it did quite well, but lol it is the canadian..and yeah i stayed up to watch the overnight models last night and had to get up at 5:15 and didnt get done today til 4..so gustav is killing me! lol..but of course ill be staying up again tonight! lol

[LSU2001]

CMC really? Ivanhater you know better than to closely follow that model! GFDL completely different story, can't wait to see what the 00z holds for all us. Guess that means ANOTHER 1am night .

Hey hater,
CMC puts Gus in your Neighborhood the good thing is that CMC has been on mind altering chemicals for awhile
remember CMC Crack Kills

[LSU2001]

CMC really? Ivanhater you know better than to closely follow that model! GFDL completely different story, can't wait to see what the 00z holds for all us. Guess that means ANOTHER 1am night .

Lol yeah..but once it got a handle on fay it did quite well, but lol it is the canadian..and yeah i stayed up to watch the overnight models last night and had to get up at 5:15 and didnt get done today til 4..so gustav is killing me! lol..but of course ill be staying up again tonight! lol

What it must be like to be young!!!!!!
Tim

[rockyman]

NOGAPS to western Louisiana:

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 290033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 0000 080829 1200 080830 0000 080830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 77.0W 18.6N 78.7W 19.7N 80.7W 21.0N 83.1W
BAMD 17.8N 77.0W 18.0N 78.5W 18.7N 80.3W 19.9N 82.2W
BAMM 17.8N 77.0W 18.0N 78.9W 18.8N 80.7W 19.9N 82.7W
LBAR 17.8N 77.0W 18.1N 78.5W 19.0N 80.4W 20.1N 82.6W
SHIP 60KTS 67KTS 76KTS 84KTS
DSHP 60KTS 60KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 0000 080901 0000 080902 0000 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 85.4W 24.8N 88.6W 28.0N 90.4W 30.2N 92.1W
BAMD 21.5N 84.3W 25.2N 87.8W 28.8N 90.0W 30.4N 90.8W
BAMM 21.4N 84.5W 25.2N 87.1W 29.4N 88.6W 31.7N 90.4W
LBAR 21.8N 84.7W 25.2N 88.2W 28.0N 90.1W 28.9N 91.5W
SHIP 89KTS 98KTS 96KTS 83KTS
DSHP 72KTS 89KTS 88KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 77.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 75.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 988MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

Almost a consensus?

[AL Chili Pepper]

The GFDL almost immediately swings Gustav in a WNW motion after leaving Jamaica and has it crossing 18.5N at 78.5W. The HWRF doesn't cross 18.5 until a full 3 degrees later at 81.5. Something to keep an eye on.

[Frank P]

What you're not seening from the major models is no major recurve scenario once Gus enters the GOM... seems to be on a pretty much straight path.. subject to change of course.. I hate recurves as they approach land...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Has anyone else noticed that the GFDL shows Gustav maintaining hurricane strength WELL INLAND?

Check this out..



A 982mb, 70 knot hurricane located on the Arkansas/Missouri border?! That would be insane!

[cpdaman]

Yeah it is colder if 83-84 degrees is cold.
The surface temps can rebound quickly though with sunny 90 degree days we have been having since fay lifted out. Gus is still a few days out yet. I hope that IF Gus comes our way there is some dry air to suck in and drop the wind speed quickly. BTW I live about 25-30 miles east of the current landfall spot so I am watching very closely.
Tim

you know i was never sure wether it was water temps or dry air that seems to thankfully weaken some of these TC as they make landfall. but obviously camile didn't weaken and she should be a reminder of the worst case scenario for wind damage, as well as andrew.

to any promets, does a smaller more compact storm have a better chance of sustaining it winds better than a large one (that is landfalling in the N. gom)?

[canetracker]

What you're not seening from the major models is no major recurve scenario once Gus enters the GOM... seems to be on a pretty much straight path.. subject to change of course.. I hate recurves as they approach land...

I was thinking that same thing. Storms usually recurve poleward. I don't see that in the runs.

[HouTXmetro]

Why does Wundergound keep changing what models they use with each run? For example, they have been including the NGFDL and now it's not on this run. Also what's up with the NAM into the Yucatan?

And if the GFDL is maintaining Hurricane strength well into Missouri, there might be something wrong and hence the right bias?

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB has it closer to Fla. in 3 days with Hanna threatening, too:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif