ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

You and your best guesses...you have been all over LA today......why dont you say all of LA and be done with it....

Looks like someone is angry he isn't saying Texas so he can tell himself constantly over and over in his head its coming his way.

I will say this thought...if you pick landfall where the general consensus of the models cluster and where the NHC forecast has been pointing for nearly 48 hours...your probably making a good bet on where it'll make landfall...anyone would have to stomach his bile and admit that. IMO

[gboudx]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

Prewarn? what is that? there is a possibility within the cone thus the cone.......take the media for what its worth...

True enough about the media, but I just got this email from WWL in New Orleans. Pay attention to the bolded word.

Newsletter

Tracking Map

5 Day

Info: Parish by Parish

Models

Hurricane Central

The National Hurricane Center says Gustav will be a major hurricane making
landfall near the Houma - Thibodaux area Tuesday morning.

"We're going to have to really watch this track right now as it slightly
moving a little farther to the east," says Channel 4 Meteorologist
Jonathan Meyers. He says, though, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

"The cone of error runs all the way from Pensacola to Corpus Chritsi
Texas," Meyers told WWL First News.

The Hurricane Center says Gustav will be a hurricane again as it move past
Jamaica today. The track shows it moving into the Gulf Sunday morning as
a major storm. Landfall is forecast for around 8:00am Tuesday.

This is all subject to change, however as the hurricane center notes
errors can be large in the long-range forecast.

Now did the NHC "say" that, or are they inferring that and putting words in the NHC's mouth?

[Sanibel]

Again...they are too far apart to directly affect each other.

Perhaps the interaction would be insignificant. I'm not really sure. However, I can't remember any Gulf monsters that had a hurricane so close and heading towards Florida.

[mutley]

Now did the NHC "say" that, or are they inferring that and putting words in the NHC's mouth?

I think they are taking some liberties there.

[ROCK]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

You and your best guesses...you have been all over LA today......why dont you say all of LA and be done with it....

Looks like someone is angry he isn't saying Texas so he can tell himself constantly over and over in his head its coming his way.

I will say this thought...if you pick landfall where the general consensus of the models cluster and where the NHC forecast has been pointing for nearly 48 hours...your probably making a good bet on where it'll make landfall...anyone would have to stomach his bile and admit that. IMO

WeatherFreakco- Me and DWG have a personal relationship in a way....we have been here since 2004 and have discussed these issues before through PM's and on other forums.....so your comment was unwarranted. Please PM me if you feel the need to discuss further....


48 hrs ago this was destroying Galveston. what makes you think its not going to shift either way? in the next 5 days? Cone dude look at the cone....not the line....

[Tireman4]

Where in the world did they (NOLA.com) get that? Maybe I missed something.

[kurtpage]

Again...they are too far apart to directly affect each other.

Perhaps the interaction would be insignificant. I'm not really sure. However, I can't remember any Gulf monsters that had a hurricane so close and heading towards Florida.

You continue to argue that way...and the Mets continue to shoot it down....

[robbielyn]

I don't think i've ever seen this before.

Exactly my point. One look at the map shows you it would be impossible for them not to affect each other.

from the 11 am hanna discussion from nhc: BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY. So it looks like gustav could affect hanna which makes a lot of sense. they are not that far away from each other. How many times have we seen this scenario before with two storms in the same proximity and they always had the affect of weakening one or have track changes?

[KWT]

Sanibel, more because its uncommon to have such a synoptic set-up to have two systems aiming around the same time...maybe Ivan and Jeanne?

[gatorcane]

There seems to be some kind of "trough" like feature dropping down towards the northern GOM...see dark area in this WV image.

Is that supposed to turn Gustav more NW overtime?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Where in the world did they (NOLA.com) get that? Maybe I missed something.

If you follow the line and not the cone, you are somewhere in Assumption or St. Mary Parish as a 100 knot Cat 3.

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth

[Category 5]

Where in the world did they (NOLA.com) get that? Maybe I missed something.

If you follow the line and not the cone, you are somewhere in Assumption or St. Mary Parish as a 100 knot Cat 3.

Which you're not supposed to do.

[gboudx]

Is that the 1st graphic that they show a landfall point?

[ROCK]

Where in the world did they (NOLA.com) get that? Maybe I missed something.

If you follow the line and not the cone, you are somewhere in Assumption or St. Mary Parish as a 100 knot Cat 3.

exactly what you not supposed to do 5 days out...

[Sanibel]

You continue to argue that way...and the Mets continue to shoot it down...

National Hurricane Center:

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV
COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
INTENSITY.

Some people are too quick on the trigger in here with absolutes delivered from assumed board status.

[alicia83]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

Prewarn? what is that? there is a possibility within the cone thus the cone.......take the media for what its worth...

Exactly

I didn't wanna waste words, so I just shortened prewarning to prewarn. And as for it being the media, I know, but I also remember the NHC calling the mayor? of New Orleans in advance to tell him K was likely to strike there, before it was public knowledge. I think it's entirely possible word's been passed to those in govt. positions. I'm just guessing here. I'm not in LA so I don't know what the media is reporting or not reporting there as regards to movement, and speculated intensity of Gus.

[crazycajuncane]

If you guys think the craziness on this board is bad... I work in New Iberia and people have been talking about this storm for the last 2 hours and 45 minute straight!

[KWT]

Eye like feature becoming increasingly evident now on high resolution imagery, with bursting convection in the eyewalls as well, I strongly suspect recon will find a category-1 hurricane again when they get in there given the strengthening we've seen in terms of presentation lately.

[ROCK]

If you guys think the craziness on this board is bad... I work in New Iberia and people have been talking about this storm for the last 2 hours and 45 minute straight!

New Iberia is real close to the middle of the cone....