ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I don't think they will upgrade it unless a closed eye appears on radar or satellite, or until Recon returns to the system. I do think it is a hurricane right now though.

[Nexus]

Pinhole eye?

Overshooting top.

To the east of the overshooting top?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Eh nvm, that is also an overshooting top, you're right.

[wafbwx]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?

Baton Rouge could very well get what they got from Andrew in '92. As I recall they got strong gale/ts force winds all day with the highest gusts up to 70mph. I remember hearing the head of the local NWS office say that you can apply a rule of thumb here of halving the winds. In other words what ever the storm hits the coast with, you cut it in half for BR due to the inland situation. Andrew held true to that. He was ast 140 at landfall and brought 70mph winds to BR airport, probably much higher in southern portions of the metro area. Personally, I think that rule is on the conservative side because the storm was quite a bit to your west. Had the center of the storm crossed just over or to the west of the city the winds would have been much higher. I believe that St. Francisville got worse winds due to the center crossing almost directly overhead.

Also that rule would have to be thrown out in the case of Charley here in Orlando in '04. That storm hit the coast at 145mph and had to travel at least 100 miles (BR is about 60 miles inland) before getting here and we saw wind gusts of 105mph. It all depends on the exact track of the storm and how quickly it deteriorates over land. Every storm is different but your boss needs to realize that Baton Rouge is definitely vulnerable to getting very high winds. Also Betsy in '65 hit BR from what could be a very similar track to whats progged for Gustav and gusts were reported in BR of over 100mph. So, rain, definitely, damaging winds, a good possibilty.

So many variables to consider, especially 5 days out, but otown summed it up pretty good. The last time hurricane force winds were recorded in Baton Rouge was in 1965 with Betsy (gusts in the low 90s, I believe). Andrew tracked awful close and produced gusts around 70 mph. Katrina and Rita gave us some sustained winds in the 40s, with gusts of 55-60 mph. In addition to the intensity, the forward motion has a lot to do with inland wind potential. A slow-moving system will have more time to weaken before striking inland locations like Baton Rouge, while a fast-moving hurricane will carry strong winds much farther inland. The classic example of what a fast-moving hurricane can do inland is 1989's Hugo. Bottom line...yes, if a Cat. 2-3 made landfall in Louisiana and passed close enough to Baton Rouge, hurricane-force gusts are possible, but they're pretty rare.

[dwg71]

discussion actually downplays models shifting storm west. i think the GFDL needs to be closely watched. A little quicker storm and we bring points east of NOLA into play.

[ROCK]

discussion actually downplays models shifting storm west. i think the GFDL needs to be closely watched. A little quicker storm and we bring points east of NOLA into play.

how is downplaying when they say reliable models are on either side of the track should not be discounted?......BTW- I love your one sentence explanations.

[Stormcenter]

This is one of many interesting comments from the 11am advisory.
I believe they moved the track eastward some in respect to
the GFDL last run eastward toward Mobile. This folks by
all means is far from a done deal. They also mention the
a possibility of a stronger high pressure to the north forcing it westward more
and again shear in the GOM.

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH
THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL
TRACK.

[dwg71]

SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MINORITY.

Also, regarding high that other models are picking up on that will force it west

BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK GUSTAV'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS.

I'm trying to make this a longer response, but I find my self typing just to keep Rock happy

[Sabanic]

This is one of many interesting comments from the 11am advisory.
I believe they moved the track eastward some in respect to
the GFDL last run eastward toward Mobile. This folks by
all means is far from a done deal. They also mention the
a possibility of a stronger high pressure to the north forcing it westward more
and again shear in the GOM.

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH
THE CONSENSUS. RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL
TRACK.

Everyone quit the bickering about where Gus is going to end up. As for right now no one including the NHC knows. If they did their cone wouldn't cover 2/3's of the Gulf Coast. Everyone within the cone is at risk for now. In the next couple of days we will all have a much better grip on this. Starting to sound like a bunch of kids arguing.

[Full8s]

This is my first post on S2K (although I've been stalking it for about 3 months), and I'd like to preface it by saying that all the pro-mets and most of the amateurs on the site are extremely informative and mostly helpful, although all of the "about-facing" on the fate of the last 2 storms has been nothing short of comical.

That being said:
FYI: I just spoke with one of my friends who lives in NW Jamaica (Montego Bay) and he said its been pretty rainy and the gusts are picking up exponentially (obvious, I know- but I figure hearing it from someone who's actually there and not just looking at Sat. images reminds us all of the human element of these storms)

[TexWx]

I don't think i've ever seen this before.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 144513.gif

[Sanibel]

I don't think i've ever seen this before.

Exactly my point. One look at the map shows you it would be impossible for them not to affect each other.

[mutley]

I don't think i've ever seen this before.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 144513.gif

Who let the dogs out!

[jasons2k]

This season is providing a lot of lessons. Never doubt that an intact cyclone with a 999mb presure over the NW Caribbean bathtub with favorable conditions can quickly ramp-up again. All this needed was a clear path for the inflow into the center and once it happened...well we can see what happened.

If this goes right over Jamaica, expect a temporary weakening but it will be only temporary. I would not adjust the long-term intensity forecasts based on that. There will be plenty of time and real estate for this to become a major hurricane.

Also - as the NHC and others have said repeatedly, the cone will change many times in the next few days. And I have been saying for the last 3 days everyone from Texas to Mobile should keep a very close watch on this and start intial preperations. I've been concerned about a west bend at the end with the high building back in, but now that the NHC mentions it, I'm getting more concerned with this possibility.

[jasons2k]

I don't think i've ever seen this before.

Who let the dogs out!

Welcome to the peak of an active season.

[otowntiger]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?

Baton Rouge could very well get what they got from Andrew in '92. As I recall they got strong gale/ts force winds all day with the highest gusts up to 70mph. I remember hearing the head of the local NWS office say that you can apply a rule of thumb here of halving the winds. In other words what ever the storm hits the coast with, you cut it in half for BR due to the inland situation. Andrew held true to that. He was ast 140 at landfall and brought 70mph winds to BR airport, probably much higher in southern portions of the metro area. Personally, I think that rule is on the conservative side because the storm was quite a bit to your west. Had the center of the storm crossed just over or to the west of the city the winds would have been much higher. I believe that St. Francisville got worse winds due to the center crossing almost directly overhead.

Also that rule would have to be thrown out in the case of Charley here in Orlando in '04. That storm hit the coast at 145mph and had to travel at least 100 miles (BR is about 60 miles inland) before getting here and we saw wind gusts of 105mph. It all depends on the exact track of the storm and how quickly it deteriorates over land. Every storm is different but your boss needs to realize that Baton Rouge is definitely vulnerable to getting very high winds. Also Betsy in '65 hit BR from what could be a very similar track to whats progged for Gustav and gusts were reported in BR of over 100mph. So, rain, definitely, damaging winds, a good possibilty.

So many variables to consider, especially 5 days out, but otown summed it up pretty good. The last time hurricane force winds were recorded in Baton Rouge was in 1965 with Betsy (gusts in the low 90s, I believe). Andrew tracked awful close and produced gusts around 70 mph. Katrina and Rita gave us some sustained winds in the 40s, with gusts of 55-60 mph. In addition to the intensity, the forward motion has a lot to do with inland wind potential. A slow-moving system will have more time to weaken before striking inland locations like Baton Rouge, while a fast-moving hurricane will carry strong winds much farther inland. The classic example of what a fast-moving hurricane can do inland is 1989's Hugo. Bottom line...yes, if a Cat. 2-3 made landfall in Louisiana and passed close enough to Baton Rouge, hurricane-force gusts are possible, but they're pretty rare.

Thanks WAFBWx. I meant to mention the fact that the forward speed can have large impact on the inland winds due to time to deteriorate over land. Hugo is a good example as well as Charley. He barreled in here at about 25 mph which also can add to the winds on the right front quadrant. I grew up in BR, lived there from '66 until '89 and never saw the winds we got here in Orlando on 3 different ocasions in the same year, Charley, Frances and Jeanne, but I do know that BR can get strong winds. It is rare as you say but possible if given the right circumstances. By the way, I'm honored to be talking to a real Met and one from my home town no less!

[Air Force Met]

I don't think i've ever seen this before.

Exactly my point. One look at the map shows you it would be impossible for them not to affect each other.

Again...they are too far apart to directly affect each other. At the 5 day forecasts...they are over 1200SM apart. They are small storms. The only possible impact would be indirectly as one may play with the ridge between them....forcing the other to alter course slightly.

[alicia83]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

[mutley]

I don't think i've ever seen this before.

Who let the dogs out!

Welcome to the peak of an active season.

It is somewhat frightening to behold.

[ROCK]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

Prewarn? what is that? there is a possibility within the cone thus the cone.......take the media for what its worth...

[Sabanic]

NOLA.com is calling for the possibility of a Cat 3 at Morgan City, LA Tuesday at 2AM. I wonder if that was a prewarn from NHC?

Prewarn? what is that? there is a possibility within the cone thus the cone.......take the media for what its worth...

Exactly