ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

I'm curious to know what implications would 96L development have on Gustav future track, if any?

[otowntiger]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?

Baton Rouge could very well get what they got from Andrew in '92. As I recall they got strong gale/ts force winds all day with the highest gusts up to 70mph. I remember hearing the head of the local NWS office say that you can apply a rule of thumb here of halving the winds. In other words what ever the storm hits the coast with, you cut it in half for BR due to the inland situation. Andrew held true to that. He was ast 140 at landfall and brought 70mph winds to BR airport, probably much higher in southern portions of the metro area. Personally, I think that rule is on the conservative side because the storm was quite a bit to your west. Had the center of the storm crossed just over or to the west of the city the winds would have been much higher. I believe that St. Francisville got worse winds due to the center crossing almost directly overhead.

Also that rule would have to be thrown out in the case of Charley here in Orlando in '04. That storm hit the coast at 145mph and had to travel at least 100 miles (BR is about 60 miles inland) before getting here and we saw wind gusts of 105mph. It all depends on the exact track of the storm and how quickly it deteriorates over land. Every storm is different but your boss needs to realize that Baton Rouge is definitely vulnerable to getting very high winds. Also Betsy in '65 hit BR from what could be a very similar track to whats progged for Gustav and gusts were reported in BR of over 100mph. So, rain, definitely, damaging winds, a good possibilty.

[mutley]

Pinhole eye?

[Sanibel]

Maybe some intensification wobbles or island wobbles. Possible slightly faster forward speed?

Close enough to Jamaica for island interaction inhibition.


As hard as it is to turn off the computer tomorrow night should give us a better idea of Gulf destination. This smoothing into NHC track now is not good for GOM landfall destinations.

Should go right over Jamaica.

[bob rulz]

Pinhole eye?

That doesn't look good at all. This storm is astounding. This looks considerably better than it did even an hour ago.

[RL3AO]

Pinhole eye?

Overshooting top.

[mutley]

Pinhole eye?

Overshooting top.

I think you're right.

[rockyman]

New advisory package coming in:

outlook valid 01/1200z 27.0n 89.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 02/1200z 29.5n 91.0w...near coast of Louisiana
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

[Pebbles]

Pinhole eye?

Overshooting top.

RL3AO is right

[Nexus]

[bob rulz]

What exactly is an overshooting top and does it mean anything?

[dwg71]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

Nailed it. NHC track shifts a little east...

[butch]

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IMHO, Going to be a close call for SETX...We will have to leave Sunday.

Funny but I feel the same way for our area . .

I have a feeling, strictly unofficially, but based on 6 GFDL runs in a row straddling NOLA, LF could be Intracoastal City to Pensacola. If it gets big enough, major territory, and hits Central LA, extreme SE Texas like Port Arthur might see gusts near hurricane force, even on the weak side. But I think Mobile has the greater risk.

That is strictly unofficial, I am an amateur, and the course of least regret is to always follow NHC and local NWS and EMS advisories, and always plan as if the storm will be one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than NHC forecast, to avoid nasty surprises.

[bob rulz]

How is this not a hurricane? Eagerly awaiting the discussion.

[Nexus]

Pinhole eye?

Overshooting top.

To the east of the overshooting top?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[Stormcenter]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

Nailed it. NHC track shifts a little east...

It will change again and again and again.

[Johnny]

looks about here to me and moving slowly and erratic

That is where I am seeing it also.

[ROCK]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

Nailed it. NHC track shifts a little east...

is it right over Timbailier Bay?

[ROCK]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

Nailed it. NHC track shifts a little east...

It will change again and again and again.

we are 5 days out.....so you would be correct....