ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[dwg71]

I'm gettting more convinced that the center is just off the NE coast of Jamaica.

[gboudx]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?

Try to find data on Hurricane Andrew's impact on BR. I was at LSU living in an off-campus apt when Andrew came through. From my experience, you would be right.

[Frank2]

**To all visitors of this site - predictions mentioned here are only the opinion of the poster, and, are not based on official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (see Storm2K's disclaimer at the top of this page)**

We now return you to the posts...

[Wx_Warrior]

IMHO, Going to be a close call for SETX...We will have to leave Sunday.

[Just Joshing You]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?

Depends on the wind radius. If it explodes in the GOM, you could easily expect Cat 1 force sustained winds.

[Cryomaniac]

**To all visitors of this site - predictions mentioned here are only the opinion of the poster, and, are not based on official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (see Storm2K's disclaimer at the top of this page)**

We now return you to the posts...

I don't see why you need to say that.

[Rouster]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?

I was also getting ready to mention Andrew. We came to Gonzales(from Buras) to get away from the storm. Would have been better in Buras. I remember some Hurricane force gusts coming through Galvez, it got pretty nasty. Plus, power was gone for about a week.
It really all depends on where it hits and at what intensity. Just go look up the damage to Hattisburg Ms during Katrina. If a Cat 4 or so came up N through Morgan City, I'd expect about that much damage in and around BR.
So yeah, I think your right. Again it just depends.

[HurricaneRobert]

Did anyone mention how the HWRF has this hitting 894 MB? and 136 KT?

Yesterday it had a Category 3 at 916 MB.

[twister]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... t_enhanced

Good grief!!

[alicia83]

I second that the center is off the northeast coast.

[Frank2]

Well, there are close to 700 folks on this site right now, and, I was once at a banquet that had 700 people - I recall thinking how large a crowd that was, so, to help with rumor control (a/k/a trying to prevent rumors), it's best to just remind everyone that everything here is just our own opinion (including my own wobbly opinion)...

Frank

[Sabanic]

IMHO, Going to be a close call for SETX...We will have to leave Sunday.

Funny but I feel the same way for our area . .

[Tireman4]

I think, and this is my own opinion, that the whole Gulf Coast needs to keep a sharp on this entity.

[dwg71]

IMHO, Going to be a close call for SETX...We will have to leave Sunday.

Funny but I feel the same way for our area . .

SPlit the difference and you have Centrall LA which is as good as any point atm... certainly you cannot discount the the models have been pointing in the vicinity of Central to SE La for two days now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I'm eating crow on this one big time... I'm done predicting the death of storm, just going to leave it to the pros
and just comment on other things. One question, isn't the BOC system going to create a substantial amount of shear for this system once it gets into the gulf?? Just curious...

[ColdFusion]

...a relative silence hits the board as we await the 11am NHC package...

[shawn67]

EYE SEE YOU!!!

[tailgater]

looks about here to me and moving slowly and erratic

[ROCK]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

You and your best guesses...you have been all over LA today......why dont you say all of LA and be done with it....

[Sabanic]

IMHO, Going to be a close call for SETX...We will have to leave Sunday.

Funny but I feel the same way for our area . .

SPlit the difference and you have Centrall LA which is as good as any point atm... certainly you cannot discount the the models have been pointing in the vicinity of Central to SE La for two days now.

I'm definitely not discounting them especially SE/LA. A skim of there with a N/NE motion puts our area right on the East side. Not good at all.