ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Stormcenter]

With a shift in the NHC track on Gustav to the west during the night is it safe to say now that my area and all points east are now in the clear or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause a shift in the NHC track back towards the east, back towards me here in Biloxi??

I believe it's way too early to make a call like that.

[PTrackerLA]

BAM models have shifted west again. Unfortunately it appears as though LA is in the cross-hairs once again today. I know it can change since we're still 4-5 days out but this is getting old.

[Stormcenter]

BAM models have shifted west again. Unfortunately it appears as though LA is in the cross-hairs once again today. I know it can change since we're still 4-5 days out but this is getting old.

How far west?

[dwg71]

BAM models have shifted west again. Unfortunately it appears as though LA is in the cross-hairs once again today. I know it can change since we're still 4-5 days out but this is getting old.

How far west?

BAMD has just on far east LA state line.
BAMM SWLA
BAMS has it still off coast much further west.

Not a great model to follow with the storm at this location.

[mutley]

BAM models have shifted west again. Unfortunately it appears as though LA is in the cross-hairs once again today. I know it can change since we're still 4-5 days out but this is getting old.

How far west?

[ROCK]

Notice the bends west in the UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN.....timing issue? high builds in quicker then more west....builds slower more north....thats pretty simple....

[lost cause]

Went to bed last night of the opinion that the final destination for Gus was gonna be somewhere between Morgan City, La. and Corpus Christi, Tx. (That's still my opinion, so take it for what it's worth and don't rest easy on it.) I wasn't expecting it to strengthen as quickly overnight as it did.

[deltadog03]

Well, IF you want to follow the BAM runs/projected path....(not really recommended for these latitudes) atleast follow the BAMD since this will be a deep system.

[duris]

Have the model runs posted just above initialized with the further south reformation? If so, so much for reassuring my 17YO that I thought we were or would see a more significant westward shift when, instead, seems like more of a cluster too close for comfort. She's really freaking having dealt with Katrina her freshman year, now this her senior year, so trying to teach her something, but explaining trends, shifts, etc. don't make much difference anyway. At least she won't worry as much during today.

[Dean4Storms]

Right now I'm going with the GFDL, it has been the most consistant of all of them!

[Sjones]

Right now I'm going with the GFDL, it has been the most consistant of all of them!

Not even hardly... someone even mentioned earlier on here that NHC is pretty much throwing GFDL under the bus so to speak

[dwg71]

Right now I'm going with the GFDL, it has been the most consistant of all of them!

Not even hardly... someone even mentioned earlier on here that NHC is pretty much throwing GFDL under the bus so to speak

A MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE
STEERING THE STORM IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION RATHER THAN ALLOW A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKE THE GFDL SUGGESTS.

Not under any bus..

[mutley]

Right now I'm going with the GFDL, it has been the most consistant of all of them!

Not even hardly... someone even mentioned earlier on here that NHC is pretty much throwing GFDL under the bus so to speak

We shall see. I agree with Dean4Storms.

[ColdFusion]

Right now I'm going with the GFDL, it has been the most consistant of all of them!

Not even hardly... someone even mentioned earlier on here that NHC is pretty much throwing GFDL under the bus so to speak

A MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE
STEERING THE STORM IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION RATHER THAN ALLOW A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKE THE GFDL SUGGESTS.

Not under any bus..

LOL, man its refreshing when the facts are posted.

[3ABirdMan]

While reading all of the posts last night in BOTH threads, I read where the LLC and MLC became un-coupled as a result of Haiti. Have they re-coupled this morning? I haven't found where anyone has stated that they felt they have. Could that be part of the reason it is so hard to find the "eye-like feature" this morning?

[otowntiger]

Notice the bends west in the UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN.....timing issue? high builds in quicker then more west....builds slower more north....thats pretty simple....

Also notice a little more 'curving' in the models that are the eastern outliers. I seems that the spread is a little greater today. But the model consensus remains the same: South central LA.

[attallaman]

Notice the bends west in the UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN.....timing issue? high builds in quicker then more west....builds slower more north....thats pretty simple....

Also notice a little more 'curving' in the models that are the eastern outliers. I seems that the spread is a little greater today. But the model consensus remains the same: South central LA.

South central LA would be from where? Baton Rouge to the west?

[TSmith274]

Looks to me that the NHC has Cocodrie, La

[HouTXmetro]

Notice the bends west in the UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN.....timing issue? high builds in quicker then more west....builds slower more north....thats pretty simple....

Also notice a little more 'curving' in the models that are the eastern outliers. I seems that the spread is a little greater today. But the model consensus remains the same: South central LA.

South central LA would be from where? Baton Rouge to the west?

Baton Rouge to Lafayette is considered south Central IMO.

[Nederlander]

My own personal cone would be from Galveston to New Orleans. As far as the GFDL goes, it CAN be a reliable model in some instances. I just dont think its going to cut it with Gustav. All the other models are in a general consensus west of there, so I dont buy GFDL right now. Still going to stick with NHC, as always......



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