ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mutley]

Is this the location of the center?

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

It looks like the center is east and moving e/ne. I think I see the first signs of an eye developing. I'm going with skirting the north of Jamaica.

[carversteve]

Is this the location of the center?

You beat me to it..that was my next question.

[stormchazer]

"It looks like the center is east and moving e/ne. I think I see the first signs of an eye developing. I'm going with skirting the north of Jamaica."

E/NE or W/NW?

[HouTXmetro]

IMO moving SW and about to go through the heart of Jamaica. I expect weakening because of this.

UNOFFICIAL FORECAST

[carversteve]

Even though Gus took an around about way..he really looks to be going in the general direction he was suppose to over 24 hours ago..just a tad bit south..ok a big tad bit..lol The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Agua]

Is this the location of the center?

If I had to guess, I'd say it's ESE of that circle, where that depression in the cloud cover is, to the east / SE of Jamaica.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Gus will hit Jamaica or just skim it to the north. More drama is unfolding this hurricane season than I can remember for a long time back.

[Cryomaniac]

More drama is unfolding this hurricane season than I can remember for a long time back.

2005?

[Just Joshing You]

2005 was pretty straight forward though.

[Frank2]

There appears to be a center on the visible loop, but, to the SE of the Agua's red circle:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

if (if) that is the center, then, the system appears to be moving west at this time, which would unfortunately bring it across Jamacia (my own opinion)...

Frank

[Dean4Storms]

2005 was pretty straight forward though.

Exactly, all those storms for the most part formed and moved on to their destinations. Fay and now Gus have been hee haw-ing these models all over the place.

[dwg71]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

[Dean4Storms]

The center is just west of where the NHC said it was at the last advisory.

[HouTXmetro]

I expect next NHC track to have a landfall. My best guess would be Timbailier Bay, LA. jmho.

There is too much uncertainty. I Highly doubt that they will show a landfall point as they want the entire Northern Gulf Coast to be prepared.

Colder cloud tops coming in from the South... Like last night I think this indicates furher SW movement to come.

[Just Joshing You]

2005 was pretty straight forward though.

Exactly, all those storms for the most part formed and moved on to their destinations. Fay and now Gus have been hee haw-ing these models all over the place.

There wasn't many real surprises in 2005. Epsilon was quite the.. shock, but that was because of its annular characteristics imo.

[Cryomaniac]

2005 was pretty straight forward though.

Exactly, all those storms for the most part formed and moved on to their destinations. Fay and now Gus have been hee haw-ing these models all over the place.

There wasn't many real surprises in 2005. Epsilon was quite the.. shock, but that was because of its annular characteristics imo.

Vince was pretty odd too.

[Just Joshing You]

Did anyone mention how the HWRF has this hitting 894 MB? and 136 KT?

[Smurfwicked]

Not sure if what I am looking at is center or not, but if it is it appears to me that its moving almost due west (maybe very slightly south) and low enough to skirt under the eastern edge of Jamaica to the south of the island. But with the positioning & distance away if it was to continue moving west with the smallest hint of north it would skirt the island to its north. Its just that close and is approaching horizontally.

[BigB0882]

I got all my supplies yesterday, including a full tank of gas. If the models trend more West then it may have all been for nothing but you wont hear me complaining. I feel like Baton Rouge has a good chance of getting nasty weather because we are just West of Nola and the models have moved West which doesn't put it as far from us and could even put us on the bad side.

Question for the pros. My boss and I have been arguing about what Baton Rouge can expect. Just for arguments sake, let's say Gustav hits within 65 miles of Baton Rouge with winds of around 110 MPH at landfall. My boss seems to think it will be a breazy day for us just with a lot of rain. I say, depending how close it comes to us, we could easily see gusts over hurricane strength and the sustained winds here should be around 60 or even higher. He laughs at me. Then again, he is from Maine. Will anyone settle this for us?